Gift for adults in cold weather

It can be hard to shop for adults. I received a GREAT adult Christmas present last year: fuzzy pants. You might already have pants, but do you have fuzzy lined pants?

As far as I know, Eddie Bauer is the best brand for this. https://www.eddiebauer.com/s/men-s-lined-pants?keyword=Men%27s%20LIned%20Pants will get you started. They have lined pants for men and women.

This makes a good Christmas present because, for many people, it’s cold at Christmas time. These pants are a game changer for being happy in cold weather.

Something to be aware of is that these pants are not good for hot weather. If you have a long hot season where you live, then these pants can go into storage for a bit.

Running on Fumes

Friday afternoon has come and gone, we’re now into the evening, and I am just now writing a product review. I nearly cast dispersions on our blog name, “Economists Writing Everyday”! It won’t be a lengthy product review and my wit-producing engine is bereft of gas. It’s been that kind of week. I am torn between reviews of booze and theology …

There is something wonderful about the charm of making classic cocktails and also putting a twist on them. My favorite drink is an Old Fashioned and I like the weight of a quality glass, the large ice cube (I’ll have to check out Jeremy’s recommendation!), the quality of these cherries, and I enjoy experimenting with different bitters that put a twist on the classic cocktail. For example, my recent favorite combination involves black walnut bitters and chocolate bitters. Your mileage may vary.

One wonderful treasure that I discovered this summer was the series of books, “The Ancient Christian Commentaries on Scripture“. The 29 volume set is a whopping $1,499 on Amazon. But, you can start small and buy the different books piecemeal. These books provide a wealth of insights from the Church Fathers. The commentary on the book of Acts added a new dimension to my summer Bible study (maybe the subject of a future blog post).

Do not let the brevity and unremarkable quality of this product review undermine the wonderful products I’ve linked to. They are great and if you have someone in your life that loves theology and an Old Fashioned perhaps they might like some of these products too.

Ice!

Continuing with our gift recommendations, Joy has asked us to recommend another gift besides a book (see my recommendation of The Pox of Liberty last week). I have one clear recommendation: ice. But not just any ice: clear ice.

Some of you might wonder what all the fuss about ice is. But if you have every been to a cocktail bar, you can clearly see the difference: clear ice just looks better. I won’t make any strong claim that clear is has better flavor. This value is primarily aesthetic. It’s a little indulgent. But it’s worth it. Since we’re all drinking more at home, recreating the charms of a good bar is half of the fun.

How do you get clear ice? You might find many suggestions on the internet, such as using distilled water or boiling your water. These don’t work. A few years ago, you only had two good options: buy a Kold-Draft machine for several thousand dollar, or get your ice out of a lake.

Thankfully today, there are many ice cube molds on the market that simulate the way nature makes ice: slow, directional freezing. The best one I know of is called True Ice, but you can find other similar molds. These are all around $40. Perhaps it is a bit much for yourself, but the point of gift giving is to find something the recipient wouldn’t have thought to purchase themselves, and they still enjoy. Otherwise, just give them cash!

And furthermore, while $40 for a mold that produces something your refrigerator already makes might seem silly, keep in mind that ice has a long history of being a luxury product. For fascinating history of the early commercialization of ice, read this article about Frederic “The Ice King” Tudor (for a longer treatment read The Frozen Water Trade).

Here are two cubes I made at home with the molds described in this blog post. Can you tell the difference?

Of course, I am assuming that you already have a basic 2 inch ice cube tray. If you don’t already, start with the Tovolo King Cube Mold before you really get into clear ice. These cubes are great for drinks that don’t need a clear cube since they aren’t clear themselves. They are also the perfect size for shaking cocktails.

And one last thing: fancy ice cubes aren’t just for alcoholic cocktails. Kids love them too. Put some plastic army men or other little toys in the ice cubes as they freeze, and they make great bath toys.

One final tip: if you pull an ice cube directly from the freezer and pour room-temperature liquid over it, the ice will break, ruining your beautiful creation. Set the ice out for about 60 seconds before pouring that delicious drink.

Brighten Your Day with a Light Therapy Lamp

It is that time of year in the Northern Hemisphere when the days are getting shorter, the nights longer, and the sun hangs lower in the sky. Seasonal Affect Disorder (SAD) probably affects all of us to some extent. What to do?

Well, I understand that studies have shown that exposing your retinas to bright light, in the sunlight wavelengths, can improve mood and functioning. A variety of therapeutic lamps are available. Some of the least expensive ones sit on your table or desk, and shine up at a slight angle while you read or watch a movie. An example of this type is the Nature Bright SunTouch Plus ( $49 ), shown below. The lamp is ideally positioned quite close to your eyes, say 12 inches (30 cm), in order to get the recommended photons into them.

Our family has gotten a lot of mileage out of a somewhat more expensive but more versatile lamp. This is the Day-Light Sky lamp  ($113).

It has joints at the top and the bottom of its support arm, so you can use it like a desk lamp, to give strong lighting to some project you are working on, or have it therapeutically shine into your eyes, like this happy camper:

In that mode, you’d want to keep your gaze level or only slightly downward, since not much light would get into your pupils if you had your head down reading. Our family uses this on the counter or table whilst preparing or eating breakfast (it is best to get your photons in early in the day). It also works well positioned beside your shoulder as a cheery reading light.

Joy Recommends Toys 2020

We at EWED are making recommendations for holiday gifts. This post is about items that my kids are actually using.

I’ll be putting up links for your convenience. I have gotten lots of kid stuff from neighbors, either buying through websites or just be getting hand me downs. I love the idea of re-using kid items and clothes.

FUN remote-control car. “RC Cars Stunt Car Toy, Amicool 4WD” It doesn’t get stuck. It can flip over and go over many terrain types. It’s not large, meaning it doesn’t take up a lot of room in your house, but it delivers a lot of fun! Can be fun both indoors and outdoors. ($25)

Bikes: You have probably heard about balance bikes. We started on a Strider balance bike (no wheels, kids just kick to go forward).

I wanted to make the transition from balance bike to pedal bike and skip the training wheels stage. I was able to do that, but another item was necessary. Get a pedal bike that is SMALL. I actually got mine from a neighbor, but I found a link that looks similar. The bike in the link has training wheels, but I assume you can take them off. If the wheels of their first pedal bike are SMALL, then they can’t get hurt and the can’t go very fast. My 5-year-old thinks this is really fun. I don’t have the headaches of either him getting injured or worrying that he’ll take off and be out of sight quickly.

Great cheap toy for a toddler. My 2 year old loves the Melissa & Doug Minnie Wooden Magnetic Dress-Up. This has inspired hours of play and conversation. ($10)

Let’s be honest. The kids are getting screen time. When the pandemic hit and daycare (temporarily) closed, I decided to get much more lenient than I had been before about screen time.

Magnus Kingdom of Chess is a great tablet game ($8). My 5-year-old son plays it on an iPad mini. I had made some unsuccessful efforts to interest him in real chess before buying the game. He loves the video game, but what’s amazing is that since he’s started playing the video game, he has become much more interested in playing actual chess with me. In fact, he asks me to play him in chess now. Before I used to worry that how would he even succeed if he hadn’t mastered chess by age 5. Now, he’s actually asking me to play him in chess and I’m thinking secretly ‘I don’t have time for this. Shouldn’t you be playing outside?’. (In our case, my son got some help from parents with playing the game. He might have had a hard time doing it completely by himself.) Let me be quite clear, my son has NOT mastered chess, but his understanding of the pieces really went up because of the video game.

There are also several completely free great apps made by Khan Kids and PBS Kids.

Gen Z on “The Social Dilemma”

Undergraduate student of data analytics, Liza Thornell, writes her reaction to the documentary on social media. My earlier post on the same topic is here.

A new Netflix documentary has recently caught the public’s attention. The Social Dilemma has caused speculation to form around big tech companies and has also sparked the deletion of social media applications across the nation. The Social Dilemma explores the steps that were taken to create the powerhouse social media platforms, along with exposing the negative effects the platforms have on its users.

Social media platforms, such as Facebook, gain the majority of their revenue through advertising. Due to its privacy settings (or lack thereof) Facebook is able to obtain astronomical amounts of data about its users. The data that is collected from social media platforms entices marketers because they can reach more customers for less money. These platforms market specific products based on the data that they collect through their users. According to The Social Dilemma not only can social media market products to you, it can also mold and shape your opinion as well, changing your preferences over time. In the Social Dilemma several former Silicon Valley executives explain why this can be bad.

According to the documentary, social media is harmful due to its design and how it affects mental health. The purpose of these apps is to hold your attention captive for as long as possible. In order to do so, it is important that the app keeps providing fresh new content that is relevant to your preferences. Everything we do on our phones becomes predictive data for what we will do next. The ideal situation for social media platforms is that you will end up down the ‘rabbit hole’ of specifically tailored content because the longer you spend scrolling and clicking through social media, the more data these platforms can collect about you. According to the Social Dilemma, the rabbit hole is a dangerous place to be.

Social media in its initial design was not created to be hurtful. It was made to bring people together. The Social Dilemma states that big tech companies have strayed away from their initial creation story. Now, social media is about holding its audience captive, molding public opinion, and increasing sales through tailoring marketing. The content is distracting us from the serious ramifications that can come from spending all of our free time scrolling instead of engaging with the world around us. It makes us crave instant approval at all times, from people and the media.

The Social Dilemma does not condemn social media. This documentary supports social media, just not the way it’s currently working. The biggest take away from this documentary is that we have gotten lost in the rabbit hole and have to find our way out to preserve our privacy.

From the standpoint of a college student, I found this documentary to be eye opening. I believe that the average college student struggles with being addicted to social media platforms and our attention spans are shortening as a result. Reliance on social media directly correlates with the decline of in-person interaction and interpersonal communication skills. Companies such as Apple have released features on phones that track screen time in order to enlighten consumers on their usage. The ability to track usage is a tool for managing and limiting social media use. For college students, cutting down on social media consumption can positively impact mental health and productivity.

Election Forecast by 538

I teach a data analytics course and I asked some students to write blogs on data and current events. This blog is by Jake Fischer.

Every four years, the United States seems to turn upside down with the Presidential election. Now, the nation has turned its eyes to predictive analytics to understand the future of our country. As of October 22, the time of the writing of this post, Joe Biden stands an 87% chance of winning the critical swing state of Florida. This seems like a significant margin, but how did we come to this understanding using data? How reliable is this fivethirtyeight forecast?

For starters, the 87% chance of winning is based on a simulation run by data analysts in 40,000 different scenarios, all of which are measuring different factors from voter turnout to demographics to the economic forecast of the day. This prediction also factors in the polling averages for each candidate from 8 different polls, each of which is given a grade of reliability and weighted accordingly. Hundreds of factors come into play when predicting an election, yet confidence in many of these numbers is at an all-time low. So, in answer to question two, the outlook is anything but certain.

This doubtful outlook is because, although Biden wins 87% of the elections, this does not factor in the margin he wins by. When truly looking at the data, you see that over half of the outcomes weighed in this 87% are decided by less than 1% of votes. Unfortunately, this does not leave much more for a margin of error as is required in most data analysis. 

This very popular website does not factor in the impact that the website itself has on voters. With millions of people reading this data and seeing that Biden stands a 87% chance of winning, there is a high likelihood that voters will simply not turn up at the polls. This distinct percentage of voter turnout that may chose not to turn up at the polls because of analytics like this, would significantly impact the data set and could actually throw the results in the entire opposite direction, particularly when the decision is already being decided by such a slim margin.

Even though data analysis has turned into a booming industry, with more accurate results than ever before, there are some instances in which predictive analytics has placed significant limitations on the outcome of important decisions, such as the presidential election. I say all of this to not place doubt on analytics, nor the credibility of the FiveThirtyEight organization, but rather to remind readers of the important factor that is the human condition. At the end of the day it is important to exercise your right to vote no matter what side of the aisle you stand on, and without allowing polling data to influence your decisions. Vote!

The Sabbath

According to a recent CDC Report on the mental health effects of COVID-19 lockdowns, 1 in 4 young adults (ages 18-24) have had suicidal ideation. Even before COVID-19, many of you may also know about the so-called “deaths of despair” that refers to the rise in mortality among middle-aged white men starting in the late 1990s from suicide, overdose, chronic liver disease or cirrhosis.

With so much existential anguish, my book review is on a slim little book called The Sabbath by Abraham Joshua Heschel. The book is packed with zeal for a day Heschel calls, “a palace in time”,

“The seventh day is a mine where spirit’s precious metal can be found with which to construct a palace in time, a dimension in which the human is at home with the divine; a dimension in which man aspires to approach the likeness of the divine. For where shall the likeness of God be found? There is no quality that space has in common with the essence of God. There is not enough freedom at the top of the mountain; there is not enough glory in the silence of the sea. Yet the likeness of God can be found in time, which is eternity in disguise.”

Heschel divides the world into two categories: space and time. Both are means to understand God. The toil that we experience happens in space and allows us to better understand God as Creator. But, Heschel spends more pages writing about time.

In thinking about time, there is a tension because Genesis 2:2 reads, “On the seventh day God finished his work,” Exodus 20:11 reads, “In six days the Lord made the heaven and earth.” How is it possible to finish making heaven and earth in six days but not to be finished until the 7th day? The rabbi’s resolved this tension by stating that menuha was created on the Sabbath. Menuha is not an object that we create that can be grasped in our hands. Heschel states menuha means something akin to “tranquility, serenity, peace, and repose”. God created an architecture in time and menuha is the special attribute of the seventh day.

The fact that God blessed the seventh day, and not the other days, should hint that the seventh day is special. What this means is that time is not homogeneous —some time is different than other time. So it seems there is time for creating and time for remembering that we were created. On the seventh day we remember our relationship with God, that remembrance is a refuge from a fury of sound and distraction. What is more, this remembrance carries us through the rest of the week.

This was a great joy for me to think about The Sabbath today. It was also a reminder. If you are like me and still trying to find your groove amidst Coronavirus, consider setting apart one day from the others. Create a palace in time, a time that is different from all the other time. Remember, time is not homogenous. Your palace will look different depending on your position in life but it should be restorative and help you to remember and be grateful.

At one point, Heschel asks, “. . . is there any institution which holds out greater hope for man’s progress than the Sabbath?” I do not know. But, genuine rest — not diversion — seems necessary in the tensions of our present moment.

To Understand the Pandemic, Look to History (Economic History)

As the holiday shopping season gears up, Joy has invited us to suggest some books that you might give as a gift (or read yourself!).

I have one very strong recommendation: Werner Troesken’s 2016 book The Pox of Liberty. Unfortunately the publisher did not foresee the renewed interest in pandemics due to COVID-19, so you might have to settle for an electronic version of the book right now (though you might have better luck with the publisher than Amazon).

The Pox of Liberty – A Book Review By Dr. Price Fishback - Foundation For  Teaching Economics

Tragically, Troesken passed away two years ago. Many of us would love to hear his thoughts about the current pandemic. The beauty of this book is that we can still learn from him even though he is no longer with us, not only about pandemics of the past, but possibly with lessons for our current health crisis.

Troesken brings his broad knowledge of economics, history, and demography to examine the history of smallpox, typhoid fever, and yellow fever, as well as the policy responses. Broadly Troesken asks: why has the US historically been one of the richest countries in the world, yet so bad at fighting infectious diseases?

I won’t spoil the whole book, but he argues that the answer to both questions can be found in the US Constitution. The liberties protected in the Constitution allowed for the US economy to be among the best performing in the world, but made it hard for the federal and state governments to address pandemics. It’s a trade-off, or rather multiple trade-offs, as Vincent Geloso has put it.

We can see this clearly in the differences between the US and European responses to COVID-19: European countries were able to close their borders which spared many central and eastern European countries from the first wave of the current pandemic (though it does look like this may have been a temporary reprieve, as Czechia, Poland, and others are now seeing dramatic increases in COVID-19 cases). In the US, the virus has slowly spread from state to state, seemingly sparing no one in its path despite varying public policy interventions (including mostly unenforceable travel restrictions). We don’t know what the future holds for COVID, but the constitutional factors at play that Troesken described for smallpox 100 years ago seem to still matter today.

On a personal note, Troesken was a professor of mine in grad school (he spent one year at George Mason University, though most of his career was at Pitt), and he was a big influence on me, especially his teaching style. While I respected his work greatly, I was always puzzled by his interest in infectious diseases. What was the relevance of this topic for understanding the modern world? Well, in 2020, we all found out. And now we miss Werner even more.

Camping in Style in an “Instant Cabin” Tent

This is the time of year when we often think of gifts to give to others, or for others to give to us, if they are so moved. So I will share an item which took a bit of research to lock in on, and which has worked out very well in practice.

When I was in my teens, I was content to throw a sleeping bag on a tarp right on the ground when camping. In my 20s, I used a half inch thick dense foam pad, a classic Ridge Rest. I wanted a little more cushion under me in my 30s, and so graduated to a 1.5 inch thick self-inflating sleeping pad like this Stansport. For backpacking in my 40s and 50s, I craved yet more air space underneath me, especially for curling up on my side, and got good usage out of a narrow, 2.5 inch thick inflatable sleeping pad.

Now my wife and I are pretty much done with roughing it. We still enjoy the great outdoors, but find we enjoy it even more when we have essentially all the comforts of home, which includes a full size queen air mattress. It takes a pretty big tent to accommodate that plus all our other gear, without feeling squashed.

I have had some large tents in the past, which were very tedious to set up. So I was pleased to find a huge, airy tent, which almost erects itself. This is the Ozark Trails 9-Person Instant Cabin.

Image from Amazon website

The main room is 9 x 14 ft, which is plenty big for glamor-camping (glamping) for two people. In huddled masses mode, probably 8 bodies would fit comfortably. The tent has a screen room across the front, for a bug-free place to sit. The fly over the screen room provides a roof over the door to the main room, keeping out rain even when the tent door is opened.  Here are two views from within on our latest camping trip, first looking out the door through the screen room, and then looking straight up through the roof before we put the fly over the tent at the end of the day.

As an engineer, I am tickled by the clever joints that allow you to make the structure arise with just a few strategic tugs. Going from stage 2 to stage 3 in the photo below takes all of fifteen seconds. Taking the tent down for storage simply involves doing all these motions in reverse. The tent itself stays always attached to the poles.

Image from Amazon website

The only major drawback is the price, about $300, which is a lot for a tent. Considering our wants at this stage, for us that is a fair exchange. It gives us much of the space and utility of a small pop-up camper trailer, for a fraction of the cost.