Omicron is highly contagious, but has far lower rates of associated hospitalization and death. By one estimate it is essentially 3 times deadlier than the standard flu, which is bad, but modest compared to previous variants of Covid-19. The vaccines, especially the mRNA vaccines, appear to help a lot towards further mitigating the cost of infection. That all said, there’s no reason to yet be confident it precludes one from “long Covid” symptoms, many of which are moderately terrifying to a relatively healthy person such as myself.

But, after being vaccinated and begging everyone in your life to get vaccinated, is there anything else we can do at this point? There is a cost-benefit analysis happening in all of our heads now, and many of us who were stridently in the “isolate at home and wait until the vaccine miracle arrives” camp got our miracle, only to find out other people were…less enthusiastic. Then Omicron showed up and it started to feel like the only options are to either return to home isolation (perhaps even more strictly than before) or just accept that you’re going to get it.

I don’t know the answer to this question, but as I sit here, wondering if any body ache or cough is the beginning of “my turn” with Covid, there isn’t the fear or rage I would have previously expected. Just a quiet resignation, a hope that my to-do-list doesn’t grow to unmanageable proportions while I am down, and a gratitude that my entire family (in the broadest possible definition) is vaccinated and boosted.

The road here has been long and dumb, but it also might be near the end. Not because we won, but because we’ve arrived at a point where more people will survive their bad decision-making while imposing a far smaller cost on the rest of us than before. Which is fine, I guess.

But is it? Or have we just let the experience of the last two years beat down our expectations to the point where we’ll willing to accept an endemic version of mild Covid and move on with our lives? You’d think the main take away would be that mankind has arrived at a point where we can make a bespoke vaccine in 18 months (it probably should be), but in all honesty I find our incredible innovation less shocking than how easily grotesque anti-science fictions have become not just limits on public health, but bonafide popular campaign strategies, rigid spines capable of supporting functioning political coalitions. Angry, dangerous people have found each other, found community, and many very ambitious people have figured out how to speak directly to them. I don’t see any way that isn’t a problem going forward.

I remain more optimistic than pessimistic with regards to our global future, but I can’t shake the feeling that this particular denouement to the pandemic should be viewed cautiously in how it portends for the near future.

I have a few friends who are physicians. Often, they tell me tales of crazy patients who did/said (both) crazy things. Often, the topic of eHealth platforms like WebMD comes up. Each of those friends has expressed a variant of anger at those platforms because patients self-diagnose. Thinking about it, its clear that they think that the platforms make health outcomes worse.

But is that correct? One could reply that there are a few studies suggesting that the platforms are providing reliable information. One could also reply that it solves a problem of asymmetric information whereby the doctors cannot easily “hide” information to their patients. But both replies are, in my opinion, a bit lazy. A more important question is: did it save lives?

Let me take a personal example. A few months ago, my two year old got sick. He had a fever with a temperature of 38.8 celsius. That had me worried a bit. However, I googled the information and found that children tend to have higher body temperatures than adults and the range of “worrisome” temperatures is thus a slight notch higher. This information got me reassured and I simply waited it out and kept monitoring the temperature. I did not consume any medical services in the end.

Now, lets do a proper counterfactual in which the technological constraint facing me is that of the 1970s or 1960s — not medical dark ages by any means. What would I have done absent the internet? Most likely, I would have gone to a clinic for a consult. The physician doing that consult would not have been available for another patient while he told me to go home, wait three days (or give him baby tylenol), visit back only if the temperature increased above 39 celsius.

That example may appear trivial, but it illustrates the point about how WebMD and other eHealth platforms might be saving lives: they liberate medical resources by eliminating ignorance about trivial problems that are time-consuming for physicians. In fact, I might go a step further by pointing out that there were numerous “grandmother’s remedies” still being held as true in the 1960s and 1970s — beliefs that may have been counterproductive and would have forced physicians to needlessly expend resources.

I tried to find economic studies about the effect of eHealth platforms (especially if they tested the mechanism above). Unfortunately, I found absolutely nothing. This is a paper that needs to be written.

Did you notice that social media had much less traffic and activity today? It seems like even less than on Christmas.

I was instantly sick about all of the emails that went out early in the COVID times from companies that said that “we’re in this together”. Frankly – no we weren’t. Lots of people dissented and still do today.

To a great degree, we share a great deal in common. If you didn’t work today, then you probably spent time with family and friends – it’s a relatively secular holiday. Even if you did work, you probably resented it a little.

But, we do share common experiences otherwise. Make sure that you get home safely tonight. Maybe check-in on your friends in the morning. Be sure to reflect on your life from the past year. Plan like you have many years in front of you and live like you have a single day in front of you.

Happy new year everyone from Economistwritingeveryday.com !