Getting Music On Streaming Is Surprisingly Easy

Before recording and broadcasting technologies, there was no way for people all over the world to hear the same music performance- you had to be in the same room as the performer. Even when I was growing up, distributing your worldwide meant getting a record deal, something few could do. But the modern internet allows for music to easily be uploaded from anywhere, to be listened to anywhere.

For artists, this means to problem shifts from just being available, to standing out to listeners among the sea of available music. How best to do this- other than making great music- is a complex and detailed question of marketing. But one crucial early step- getting on the right streaming platforms where artists make their money– is now surprisingly simple and easy.

Source: My image made from Chartlex data

Amateur artists tend to start with what is free- uploading their music directly to Youtube or Soundcloud. But huge numbers of listeners are on streaming platforms like Spotify, Amazon Music, or Apple Music. These don’t allow artists to upload music directly, which can make listeners or new artists think that getting on streaming platforms is a bit like getting a record deal in the old days, where an industry insider needs to approve the artists. In fact, approval for streaming now mostly runs automatically through third-party music distributors.

Adding third parties into the mix sounds complicated, but in fact they are easy for artists to work with, and a single distributor can get your music onto all major streaming platforms at once. Here’s how the page for uploading a song starts at the largest distributor, Distrokid:

There are many distributors; Spotify currently recommends 21 that work directly with artists. Distributors charge artists, but not very much. Some charge by the song or album (CD Baby does this, starting at $10/song or $15/album), others let artists upload unlimited songs for an annual fee (DistroKid does this, starting at $25/yr). Distributors also collect royalties from streams on behalf of artists. To me this looks like a no-brainer for any semi-pro musician who is out there playing some gigs, but also makes sense for stronger amateur artists looking to expand their reach* (for professionals with record deals, of course, the label will do this for you).

For an academic comparison, getting your music out there is now less like hoping an insider likes you or your work enough to invite you to NBER, and more like just uploading to SSRN (if SSRN charged a small fee).

All this is a long way of saying- you can now find my son’s piano compositions on all the streamings (Spotify, Youtube / Youtube Music, Apple Music, Amazon Music).

*At least if you write your own songs- buying the rights to distribute covers costs extra (e.g. $12 per song per year for DistroKid), and on streaming people can listen to the original artist just as cheaply and easily, so there’s not the same niche for cover bands that there is in live music.

Bubble Worries Mean Diversify…. But How?

Mike is concerned that US stocks could be a bubble, as are many others:

if we take parallels to the past seriously, there arises the question of whether a 40 year old with a 100% index fund portfolio should consider hedging/reallocating their portfolio a decade sooner than they planned on becuase, well, just look at that [CAPE] chart.

But what to do about it?

So, seriously. Are we hedging? And what are we hedging into? Asking for a friend. Who is an economist. And also me.

My answer: I’m diversifying into global stocks, which tend to be much lower-priced: 

Source: The Idea Farm, Global Valuations Update July 2026

But how do you practically do this?

A simple and cheap way to get a highly diversified basket of global stocks is VEU (Vanguard ex-US). Over 3000 stocks from around the world, P/E of 19, rock-bottom fees. One disadvantage for diversification purposes is that its biggest 5 holdings make up 12% of the index and they are all AI-related.

If you’re willing to make more concentrated and specific bets in order to get even cheaper, here are some other foreign indices I like:

  • FRDM (Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF): Invests in emerging markets with the highest economic freedom ratings. I love the theory & it’s performed very well for me & its overall PE is a reasonable 17, though it’s largest holdings are in Taiwan and South Korea, so not a good way to get away from AI.
  • ILF (iShares Latin America 40): Invests in large Latin American companies. P/E 11 with low AI exposure.
  • FYLD (Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF): Invests in high-yielding companies in developed countries outside the US. Measures yield using stock buybacks in addition to dividends. This serves as a value screen that keeps PE low (currently 13) and avoids expensive sectors like AI.
  • EYLD (Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield ETF): Same idea as FYLD but for emerging markets. Current PE 12

I also hold single-country indices for Japan (FLJP, PE 20), Poland (EPOL, PE 13), and India (EPI, PE 17). These are probably riskier than the broad indices above, but still fairly diversified across companies.

While foreign stocks are my preferred hedge, there are many others. For US stocks there are small-cap or value indices, or just buying individual stocks you like (not necessarily crazy). The 20- and 30-year US treasury bonds are intriguingly yielding over 5%, though between my age and my inflation concerns I don’t own any. TIPS are much more attractive, yielding 2-3% over inflation, I don’t own any yet but I’m considering it. Gold indices like IAUM are another good hedge.

Of course this isn’t necessarily a bubble that will pop any time soon, or at all- AI is a real technological advance- so between that & general efficient market principles I don’t think the answer is to sell everything & go to cash, much less short the market. But Mike is right to ask how to hedge, and I think anyone holding ~100% US stocks should consider diversifying.

Disclaimers: Not investment advice, I hold some of the indices named.

CBO Wants Your Research

The Congressional Budget Office released a series of posts explaining questions they have about major federal budget policies that past research does not adequately answer. For any economist looking for paper ideas or for a way to influence policy, CBO’s posts are a great place to look:

A Call for New Research on the No Surprises Act

A Call for New Research in the Area of Permitting Requirements for Investments in Physical Infrastructure

A Call for New Research in the Area of Spending on Medicare Part D

A Call for New Research in the Area of Nutritional Standards in SNAP

A Call for New Research on Energy and the Environment

A Call for New Research in the Area of Finance

A Call for New Research in the Area of Health

A Call for New Research in the Area of Labor

A Call for New Research in the Area of Macroeconomics

A Call for New Research in the Area of National Security

A Call for New Research in the Area of Hepatitis C

A Call for New Research in the Area of New Drug Development

A Call for New Research in the Area of Obesity

A Call for New Research in the Area of Taxes and Transfers

At AEAs this year Heidi Williams emphasized how huge bills like permitting reform are being discussed by Congress without much research to inform key aspects of the bills, so CBO & some Congresspeople would genuinely like to see your work on these questions if it is well done

This also your regular reminded that I maintain a page of economics paper ideas. Until now all the ideas there have been my own, but I will be adding links to pages where others share their own paper ideas, starting with CBO’s.

The Academic Data Project That Turned Into $375 Million

What could be better than creating data so valuable that an institution is happy to host and update it forever, like the Sean Lahman baseball database?

Creating data that sells for $375 million, like the Center for Research in Security Prices. University of Chicago professors assembled this series of finance datasets over decades, starting in 1960 with an effort to track every transaction of every publicly traded security. U Chicago sold CRSP to Morningstar last year for $375 million.

Why could they sell it for so much? It helps to be working in finance, where the willingness to pay is the highest. It also represents 65 years of work from what became a large team that included Nobelists like Eugene Fama. The data was valuable enough to become widely used by key institutions even though CRSP charged for it:

Today, $3 trillion in fund assets are linked to CRSP Market Indexes, including U.S. equity ETFs run by Vanguard, and more than 600 subscribers across 35 countries use CRSP Research Data Products.  

Did U Chicago sell CRSP at the right time? On the one hand, I wonder if this was a fire sale driven by federal grant cuts putting pressure on the U Chicago budget. On the other hand, assembling datasets like this is only going to get easier in the age of AI, so perhaps Chicago sold at the top.

For now though there is still an edge in having restricted datasets that AIs haven’t trained on and can’t access. When I ask myself what advantage my human research assistants have over AIs in 2026, the most obvious answer is that they can legally access restricted databases like CRSP or, in my current case, HeinOnline.

Nimble Individuals, Enduring Institutions, and The Sean Lahman Baseball Database

The Lahman Baseball Database offers player- and team-level stats all the way back to 1871 as freely downloadable files. It includes over 20,000 players and has been cited by 192 academic papers. That sounds like something that takes an enormous amount of effort to put together, but it seems to have been compiled by just one guy, journalist Sean Lahman.

This looks like yet another example of a lone individual outperforming the huge, well-funded institutions you might expect to compile such datasets- this time not the government but MLB, ESPN, et c.

But as we saw last week, lone individuals can’t keep it up forever. If you want your creation to last, you will eventually need an institution. In this case, Lahman recently passed his database on to the Society for American Baseball Research:

Sean Lahman has graciously agreed to donate the Lahman Baseball Database, an open source collection of historical baseball statistics, to SABR.

The Lahman Baseball Database — which Lahman created in 1996 and has made freely available online every year since then — contains complete batting and pitching statistics back to 1871, plus fielding statistics, standings, team stats, managerial records, postseason data, and more. While Lahman and others had previously released smaller datasets online, his database allowed researchers to perform complex queries across the entire history of the game for the first time. The Lahman Baseball Database has served as the foundation for many popular baseball research projects and simulation games, including Out of the Park Baseball and Baseball Mogul.

SABR plans to continue to update the database and make it available for free online every year at SABR.org/lahman-database

I can only hope more of us will compile datasets worth handing off to an institution that will keep updating them.

The Journal of Healthcare Finance Is Back

Most academic journals are run by big for-profit publishing companies, and most of the rest are run by universities or big academic societies. The Journal of Healthcare Finance was an extreme outlier from this norm, run single-handedly by Editor-In-Chief James Unland since 1994. It was the rare journal that was free both for readers and authors.

I loved the idea of having a single person truly in charge and accountable without being slowed by a complex bureaucracy. But eventually a single person will want to, or have to, move on. Having an institution run a journal can ease this process, though an individual can still try to find their own successor.

In this case, The Journal of Healthcare Finance had been on hiatus since its Editor-In-Chief stepped back, with its last issue published in 2023. Their old website domain had expired- not a great look for anyone who published there and was going up for a job or tenure.

But now it is officially back at a new domain, with the single Editor-In-Chief replaced by a full editorial team, and accepting submissions again with the hope of releasing a new issue this year.

Selfishly, I’m happy to see this both because it means they will continue hosting my past publication, and to have a potential outlet for my future work. I recommend that other health economists and health services researchers give it a try, though as of now I have no personal experience with the new editorial team.

Do NBA Teams Play Worse In Back-To-Back Games?

The conventional wisdom is that the NBA regular season has too many games. Teams play worse because they are tired, or injured, or resting their stars so they can be ready to actually play hard in the playoffs.

New research shows that the conventional wisdom is…. probably right. In particular, teams play worse by many measures when they have to play two days in a row. That’s what Max Aicardi and I found in a paper published today, “Running on Empty: How Back-to-Backs Impact Pace and the Four Factors of Basketball Success“:

Teams on the second night of a back-to-back shoot less efficiently (lower eFG%), grab fewer offensive rebounds, and play at a slower pace. On defense, they allow opponents to shoot more efficiently, force fewer turnovers, and give up more free throw attempts and second-chance opportunities. Turnover percentage and offensive free throw rate did not change significantly, consistent with our conceptual framework’s distinction between effort-dependent and execution-dependent metrics. While not every metric changed significantly, the overall pattern is clear: second-night back-to-back scheduling is associated with a measurable decline in team performance

The effect sizes here tend to be small, around 0.5-2%, but they are statistically significant given that we studied over 20,000 games, and practically significant given how close NBA games are.

Max had the idea for this paper and wrote the first draft as a student in my Economics Senior Capstone class in 2025. After he graduated, I joined the paper as a coauthor to get it ready for journals. We share the data and code for the paper here.

Expressionism Is To Cameras As…. Caity Weaver?…. Is To Writing?

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that movements like expressionism, impressionism, and abstract art took off after the invention of the camera. Photorealistic paintings are impressive, but once they are duplicating what a camera does, they’re less interesting.

We’re due for similar movements in other fields to emerge as reactions to AI. Like writing in a way totally different from how an AI would write- ideally better than an AI would write, but even writing worse than an AI can be interesting if it is at least different.

It’s still early days for both AI and our reactions to it. But since the release of ChatGPT in 2022, what is the good new essay or book that you’re most confident was not written by AI, one that was written in an almost deliberately extra-human manner?

Continue reading

Greenspan’s Unknown Ideal

Alan Greenspan died this week at age 100. He was the Federal Reserve chair during my entire childhood.

But since I wasn’t really following markets and macro at the time, I don’t think of him in terms of monthly announcements about interest rates. What I find most interesting now is the winding personal and intellectual path he took to become a long-serving Fed chair.

He studied clarinet at Julliard before later getting economics degrees at NYU. He supposedly attended the famous 1944 Bretton Woods conference that organized the post-war international monetary system- but as part of an orchestra, not as a monetary economist. In 1966 he coauthored “Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal” with Ayn Rand, where he argued against antitrust and consumer protection laws and for the gold standard. This may be why my intro macro professor Bobbie Horn always referred to Greenspan as “Ayn Rand’s boy toy”.

His advocacy for the gold standard is striking given that just two years later he would join the campaign of Richard Nixon, who took the US off the gold standard in 1971. Then Greenspan would go on to chair the Fed in the now-standard discretionary manner while making, as far as I can tell, no attempts to move it back in the direction of a gold standard.

While it’s unclear whether Greenspan’s unusual path improved his ability as a Chair, it was at least possible then to reach the office by his somewhat unusual path. Since his 1987 appointment the path to the highest appointed offices narrowed to include only more conventional candidates. Randy Barnett and Josh Blackman noted this in a 2015 article on the Supreme Court:

earnest, platinum-résumé’d law geeks have their eyes set on “the Big Bench,” so they keep tidy lives because they think they might someday face a confirmation hearing. It is an unfortunate reality today that to be a judge, you cannot hold vehement opinions prior to the nomination and confirmation process.

I see similar forces at work in economics, where the 50 economists who have a shot at being Fed Chair and the 500 who think they do all hold their tongues. But what does that mean for the kind of Fed Chairs we get?

the truth about SCOTUS-wannabes who “trim their sails” and limit their potential based on a fear of a future confirmation hearing: Such persons lack the character a justice needs…. “Courage is a muscle. You develop courage by exercising it. Sitting on the fence is not practice for standing up.” Imagine what it takes to live your whole professional and personal life as a “justice-in waiting.” These SCOTUS-wannabes spend their careers seeking the approval of others, in the hopes that one day they will be nominated because of their friendships across the political spectrum. 

Barnett and Blackman argued that this should change, and I think this is now in the process of changing again:

Such willfully “stealth candidates” should be disqualified from consideration for the Supreme Court…. We need jurists who are fearlessly committed to the rule of law, reputation be damned…. Paper trails are an asset, not a disqualification.

Non-Alcoholic Beer is Good Now

A wonder of the modern age.

Non-alcoholic beer always used to mean O’Doul’s, which is a poor substitute for real beer.

Then Athletic Brewing cracked the code of how to make something that tastes much more like real beer.

Their new process and the higher demand that came with it have led to an explosion in variety, with many new and established breweries offering their own new NA beers.

Source: https://www.brewersassociation.org/insights/the-state-of-non-alc/

I tried many of these recently when my wife was pregnant, and was pleased enough that I plan to keep drinking them. Partly as an occasional healthier substitute for real beer (less alcohol also means fewer calories), and partly as a nice drink to have with lunch or in the afternoon when I wouldn’t normally drink beer.

My recommendations:

Re-created the category, pretty good taste, easiest to find: Athletic Brewing

Best NA version of a beer you know: Guinness

Best NA beer from a brewery you probably haven’t heard of: Collective Arts Brewing, Emerald Dark

Spirituous liquors might remain as dear as ever, while at the same time the wholesome and invigorating liquors of beer and ale might be considerably reduced in their price.” -Adam Smith