Urban Homesteader Starts with Garden Beds and Chickens

Somewhere in the vast metropolis that stretches from Boston to Washington lives a friend of ours with a long-term dream.  To protect her privacy, I will not give her name or town. For over thirty years she has wanted to do some form of homesteading, where you raise most of your own food, plus some extra to sell for cash. She and her husband contemplate moving someday to a rural area in the South, where they could buy cheaper land in a warmer climate to raise goats or pigs or cattle, and grow more extensive crops.

However, that move just never happened (so far), what with the usual limitations on jobs and finances. She decided a few years ago, though, to not just keep putting food production off forever. She is doing what she can, with considerable help from her husband, on an urban/suburban lot of just over a quarter acre.  He constructed numerous raised beds in an area that was formerly just grass, and had many trees taken down to admit more sunlight. She sprouts seeds into plants indoors, to get a head start in the spring.  

It started about ten years ago, with just two raised beds. Now the garden area looks like this:

….

Those are pictures I took near the beginning of May. By the end of May, the gardens had exploded:

Plantings there include potatoes, onions, squash, peas, peppers, garlic, tomatoes, strawberries, arugula, and lettuce. The brassicas such as cabbage, broccoli, kale, and cauliflower are covered with a tent; otherwise, cabbage moths can decimate these plants. In a rock bed they have horseradish and comfrey. They have four blueberry bushes. The next big project would be an asparagus bed.

For livestock, they put in chickens about four years ago. In the foreground is a self-contained coop with about 8 birds, and behind it is a second coop with a run behind it, which houses about 18 birds:

They are raising dual-purpose chickens, which are pretty good egg layers, and OK for meat. (There are some breeds that are champs at laying eggs, and others like Cornish Cross whose purpose in life is to grow to eating size in an astonishing 8 weeks). All told, they get some 7-10 dozen eggs a week, spring/summer/fall. This is enough for them to eat and have plenty to sell or give away. In winter, with the cold and shorter daylight, egg production drops to 1-2 dozen/week. To transform a walking, clucking bird with feathers into breasts and drumsticks is a task I will gloss over here, but that is something that homesteaders also must do.

The main ongoing work with their chickens is filling the 7-gallon waterers every couple of days, and throwing a scoop of feed onto the floor of each coop every day. These birds get a “salad” of greens at least once a week, for variety. Here is a shot of the “girls” eagerly pecking away at their dinner; I see at least one egg on the ground in the background:

Chicken poop is pretty nasty, but it is managed by a deep bed system. There are several inches of straw in the bottom of the coops and the run. The birds continually dig around in the straw and mix it. That seems to dilute and dry the poop enough that the “farmers” only need to change out the litter a couple times a year. It just goes on the compost pile, to become fertile planting soil.

Chickens seem to be the most popular animal for budding homesteaders. They are called the “gateway animal”, to get you started/hooked. They tend to require little management, and are versatile eaters, so you don’t need to feed them just purchased grain. Some homesteaders feed them select table scraps, and even raise worms to feed the birds. If you have a large yard or pasture, you can put chickens in a movable “tractor” coop during the day, to forage for insects and greens in the fresh grass under the tractor for that day’s position.

Regulations on selling slaughtered meat are onerous, but it is easy to sell fresh eggs. In their township, chickens are allowed, but no roosters. (No one wants to hear crowing at 3:00 AM). So, our friend’s chicks that hatch out as males end up going to “freezer camp” just before they fully mature. Livestock such as goats and pigs are legal. Our friend wanted to raise a couple of pigs (pigs can also put on weight at an impressive rate, mushrooming from a 50-pound piglet to a harvestable 400-pound hog in 6-7 months). Her husband, however, declined to support that odiferous project.

Growing food is one thing, preserving it for later eating is another. She wrote me:

I can everything. Fruit, jams, veggies, potatoes, meat, fish, and meals. I have chili in jars, along with lamb stew, and onions for Frech onion soup. I make spaghetti sauce too. Yes, I’ve canned our own homegrown chicken.

Since [the storage room] stays cool in the winters (60ish F) I can store hard skin squash and keep fresh potatoes for frying or baking til January or February. I also dehydrate herbs/veggies and meat and fruit. Some veggies don’t can well, they get mushy like zucchini.

“Canning” in this context does not mean sealing into metal cans like you see in stores. It usually means putting the food in special glass “Mason” jars, heating them in a hot water bath (or, better but more work, in a pressure cooker) to sterilize the contents, then sealing them with a lid. Seems like a lot of work, but I am told by friends from the old South that canning your vegetables was a normal household activity there well into the 1960s or so.

Finally, our friends have a beehive on loan from a neighbor. Zoom in to see the bees going in/out at the bottom:

I found it inspiring to see what this couple was able to accomplish in the way of food sufficiency in a quasi-urban setting, and I wish them well in their quest to relocate to where they can grow their own red meat and hear their rooster crow.

Guide to Using Microsoft’s Free “Scan Document to PDF” PC App

Regarding Free PDF Scanning Apps for Windows 11

According to Claude:   Windows 11 includes a built-in “Windows Scan” app (free in the Microsoft Store) that lets you scan documents directly to PDF — simple and reliable for everyday use. “Adobe Scan” offers a free mobile companion but also works via browser. For more features, “NAPS2” (Not Another PDF Scanner 2) is a popular open-source option with batch scanning, OCR, and direct PDF export. “IrfanView” with its scan plugin is another lightweight choice. For advanced control, “VueScan” offers a free version with core functionality. Most modern all-in-one printers also bundle free scanning software compatible with Windows 11.

Why I Chose “Scan Document to PDF”

My HP scanner software seemed pretty snoopy, not localized to my own PC. Not that I have anything dire to hide, but I’d rather not have my private affairs shooting off to a server who knows where. So I tried the built-in Windows “Scan” function for scanning documents on my trusty ink-jet printer/copier/scanner. It would run pages through the feeder, but then freeze up.

I’ve had mixed experiences with free software, often it gratuitously installs crap-ware on your PC. But surely not Microsoft… so I downloaded the free “Windows Fax and Scan” app mentioned by Claude. It did work, but was a bit clunky and limited. You have to first save a file in some graphic image format like PNG or JPEG, then go to Print, and choose “Microsoft Print to PDF”.

But then, I installed another free Microsoft app, “Scan Document to PDF”.  That seems like a sweet spot here. It seamlessly scans to PDF, but has a good deal of extra functions that are intuitively accessible. It can save files as images like jpg if that is what you want. You can activate OCR to make a scanned document searchable. You can scan individual pages, and decide which ones to bundle into a pdf file. You can brighten or rotate pages, etc.

Go to https://apps.microsoft.com/detail/9nwn2l7ncwlx?hl=en-US&gl=US (or go to the Microsoft Store and then to the app) to download and install. Finally, here are the user instructions I typed up as a reminder for my own use:

INSTRUCTIONS FOR “SCAN DOCUMENT TO PDF” ON WINDOWS 11 PC

( 1 ) Click Start icon, to left of Search bar at bottom of Windows screen. Click on Show All, for a list of all programs. Scroll down to Scan Document to PDF and click.

( 2 ) Check scan settings showing on left hand side. Can adjust them here, or by clicking Profiles button.    Paper Source: Glass for one sheet on scanner, or Feeder for auto feeding pages.    Resolution: Suggest 300 dpi.      Bit Depth: Color for a color scan, or usually Grayscale for a black & white final document (sometimes gives better resolution than the “Black & White” setting). 

( 3 ) Click Scan button (top left) to initiate scan. (Note: on the side of that button is a dropdown for options like setting up Batch Scans.)

( 4 ) Scanned pages will show on screen. To save them all as one PDF, click the Save PDF button. Default pdf file destination is /Downloads/ folder. (To save only selected pages into the final PDF, click on the dropdown on side of that button)

MORE OPTIONS

( 5 ) BEFORE SCANNING: (A) You can set up a different Profile of scan settings (scanner device, feeder, resolution, etc.) by clicking on Profiles button.  (B) Click on OCR button to make final pdf searchable (not just a static image).

( 6 ) AFTER SCANNING:  (A) Click Import to import pages from existing PDF, that you can then add to newly scanned pages.  (B) Click Image button and select a page to crop, brighten, rotate, make black&white, etc.

Someone I Know is Taking Wegovy

This person is buying the pills direct from the supplier, in consultation with a doctor. It is amazing. Resurrection. The Great Stagnation is over. Go get this stuff. It’s funny how many people are already on it, but it doesn’t come up until you initiate a conversation.

As a behavioral economist… it’s pretty wild. Folks were eating things that part of themselves wanted to eat and part of themselves did not want to eat. And, instead of getting rid of the junk food, or somehow training people out of overeating, we’ve chemically quieted the desires.

I feel like the healthy people could have done more on choice architecture, in the old days (pre-2025). It was hard for the people trying to lose weight to avoid junk food. I’m not trying to introduce the boot of the state into kids’ birthday cakes but just pausing to reflect on how many people died because of our choices. Humans are supposed to just walk past an aisle of candy bars? (My parents explicitly and intentionally trained me from a young age to never buy anything at the “check out aisle” because it’s always going to be a stupid impulse purchase. As an adult, I buy a chocolate bar at check out about once a year and feel like I’m getting away with robbing a children’s hospital.)

Here’s Paul pondering these issues 2000 years ago (shortened by me):
Romans 7:15-19
15 I do not understand what I do. For what I want to do I do not do, but what I hate I do. 16 And if I do what I do not want to do, I agree that the law is good. … For I have the desire to do what is good, but I cannot carry it out. 19 For I do not do the good I want to do, but the evil I do not want to do—this I keep on doing.

Joy: I think on net glp1 will increase fertility relative to not having it. It seems like good news for folks reaching their (reportedly) desired number of children. But I would not count on it to turn any country around to get back to replacement.

Which Business Programs Require Economics?

Disclaimer: This post might throw shade.

The vast majority of business majors across the US are required to take two or more Economics courses. You can look across the spectrum. All of the top 20 business schools require two or more econ classes. In fact, Wharton is the top-ranked business school and their business program is actually an *economics* program. They don’t have finance/accounting/business degrees. Instead, they have an Economics degree with the various business concentrations. Again – the top business school in the country is an Economics program.

What about at the other end of the spectrum? I live in Florida. Every single Florida state school requires both Micro and Macroeconomics for business majors. These schools include everything from Florida State University to the local Florida state college down the road. I didn’t look at other state-run higher education systems in other states. There are a lot of states…

I teach at a private Catholic university. We’re listed in something called ‘The Newman Guide’ which recommends 17 Catholic schools. Many of these are liberal arts schools, but the list also includes Catholic University of America, which is an R1. Most of these schools also require two or more Economics classes in their Business major programs. The only exception is University of Dallas, which has Economics in the core curriculum.*

So, overwhelmingly undergraduate business programs across the country require two economics courses. But, why? The students are often not happy to be there, and I’ve even heard business professors demean the math as performatively rigorous and superfluous. They argue that plenty of people get rich or are otherwise successful without all of the quantitative skills that economics leverages.

I think that the fear of math is both a red herring and a scapegoat. Rather, Economics confronts students with the liberal arts – whether they like it or not. Be careful. Liberal Arts are not the same as Humanities. They include argumentation, the ability to write and communicate, clear and consistent logic, and, yes, even math. Accounting can tell you how to keep track of the money, but it doesn’t include a theory for when you should produce more or less in contrast to your competitors. Finance does better since it has the time value of money and ‘with vs without’ analysis. That’s closer to marginal thinking. But finance lacks a theory of markets outside of portfolio theory and arbitrage.**

Continue reading

Chipmaker Stock Prices Explode: The Latest Bubble?

The share prices of many semiconductor chip companies have gone nearly vertical in the past month. Here are five-year charts for Micron (MU) and AMD, as of the close Monday:

Micron (MU) 5-Year Stock Chart

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 5-Year Stock Chart

Many analysts have been taken by surprise by the magnitude of the recent surge and prices. There has been no sudden, truly new news to drive this shift. It has been known for over a year that there is a huge shortage of memory chips, allowing Micron to charge high prices for its products.  But apparently the official quarterly announcement of earnings and projections substantiated that narrative. The bears have been claiming that memory chips are a cyclic business, where chip shortages are followed by building more manufacturing capacity, which inevitably leads to overcapacity and a crash in memory chip prices. It has happened repeatedly, and therefore the current Micron stock party would end in tears after a couple of years. But the bears have been beaten back to their caves for now. Micron was up another full 7% yesterday.

AMD, which specializes in central processing units (CPUs), also released good earnings and strong projections. But the real share price driver there seems to be the new narrative that the shift from the shift to agentic AI will require a higher ratio of CPUs to GPUs.  GPUs (graphic processing units) are the engines that do the core large language model (LLM) AI calculations. But apparently an increasing number of CPUs will be required to coordinate the activities of the GPUs:

AI agents—or the Agentic Era, as called by analysts—need more CPUs per GPU because they are responsible for the orchestration of AI workloads and the required data processing in order for the agent to accomplish its task, or, more simply, CPUs organize the steps of the workflow for the agent.    Traditional LLM models—not agents—required a CPU:GPU ratio of 1:4 to 1:8, but analysts anticipate this ratio to shift toward 1:2 or even 1:1 in the coming years.

All that to say demand for AMD‘s chips is projected to increase.

So far, so good. But apparently being swept up in the whirlwind of exhilaration is the share price for lowly Intel (INTC). Intel was the leading manufacturer of processor chips back in the day, but it missed the boat on GPUs and just cannot seem to execute at global standards. In recent years, Intel has mainly been famous for ever-slipping deadlines on producing high performing chips. Its earnings have been approximately zero for some time. The good news is it now has a foundry business. The bad news is that the foundry business loses around $2 billion a year. The foundry has pulled in a few large customers, and after their experience there, they all run screaming for the exits. But wait, there’s been an announcement that Apple may contract with Intel to produce some low-end chips. Whoopee!

Intel (INTC)  Five-year stock chart


Folks who look at technical behavior of stocks rather than the fundamentals of the business seem somewhat skeptical about the current surge. Terms like overbought are thrown around. I read an article claiming that hedging activities in the options market is creating an artificial, temporary demand for these high-flying stocks:

It is also fairly clear what has been driving these overbought conditions at the index level: aggressive call buying is creating a gamma squeeze across several stocks, such as Micron (MU). This occurs when aggressive call buying forces dealer hedging flows, resulting in purchases of the underlying stock. The more the stock rises, the more call buying tends to increase, and the cycle builds on itself.


My take on this spectacle

I can get the fundamental bull case in general for Micron stock. I bought into it about six months ago. Even that far back, it was clear that the demand for memory chips far outstripped the supply, so Micron could not help minting money for the next year or two. It was one of my fairly rare successes in stock picking. Sadly, I only bought a little bit, because I was influenced by many negative articles claiming that memory chips are a cyclic business, so this boom would end like all the previous Micron booms, with a glut and a crash.

There seems to be a solid bull case for AMD as well. For pitiful Intel, however, I see its price chart as a sign of market FOMO.

Where these stock prices go from here, I have no idea. My observation over the years is that this level of enthusiasm is usually followed eventually by, “What was I thinking?”, and a return to earth. However, in the meantime, tech stock prices often run up longer and further than I would have thought possible.

Usual disclaimer: Nothing here should be taken as advice to buy or sell any security.

Will AI kill the research paper?

Will AI kill the research paper?. I don’t know, probably not. But I do know that what has constituted a research paper has changed many times before and will change many times again.

Before the the 1940’s, economics research papers were largely prose. Analytic in nature, sure, but prose. Some graphs, maybe a box. A little math, but math largely for the sake of demonstrating logical relationships. Then Samuelson hit, reframed economics as thermodynamics and differential calculus. What was previously a research paper was was now a polemic, a monograph at best. Thought experiments were out, high theory was in.

This era of high theory flourished in the 70s, the math changed, and at some point computers arrived with the possibility of data sufficiently rich and numerous you couldn’t just plot all of the observations in Figure 1. That data couldn’t stand on its own, though. To be a credible publication you really needed to bundle your analysis with some theory that generated testable predictions. Pure theory papers gave way to an era of applied imperialism as economic models found themselves applied to every quantified context under the social scientific sun.

Causal identification became a thing of interest, and we got really good at telling stories again. Specifically, stories about instrumental variables. You needed a story to convince anyone, but we told so many that some folks started to notice that these stories were often pretty weak. That, in part, turned up the heat on a credibility revolution that was already in swing, which meant now you needed even better data and you needed to defend you identification strategy to the death. What was a paper before was now an embarassment you should probably consider retracting (nb: no one retracted anything, but that doesn’t mean people were suggesting it behind their backs).

Which kept rolling in data set after data set until we woke up one day and realized you either need to go out in the world and create your own actual experiment (nothing quasi- about it) or you needed to cultivate access to better…no, better…no, the very best-est, most detailed and granular administrative data ever, preferably a universe if possible. Data so perfect as to allow for contributions unassailable in their legitimacy. Do you have friends at the Danish Census? If you want tenure you should probably start flirting with someone at the Danish Census.

So a paper was a paper. Until it wasn’t a paper anymore. Until that wasn’t a paper anymore. Until that wasn’t a paper. The Recursive Dundee Theory of Research*, if you will. They all met the criteria of a contribution, until they didn’t.

So what does this mean for AI and research papers now? Well, if we look to thermodynamics in the 40s and cheap computing power in the 90’s for analogues, then I’d say it’s going to reshape the criteria for a contribution in no small part because it lowers the cost of mediocrity. Mediocre analysis will no doubt persist, but it will shift over into blog posts and journals no one ackowledges as legitimate. Do remember, please, that mediocrity is a relative concept. The quality of blog posts and publications in scam journals will likely massively improve as what can be accomplished in an afternoon’s work is radically increased. Don’t worry, I have no intention of improving beyond my current warm bath of blogging unremarkableness, but others will likely cave in to the pressure.

What about the papers in top journals, though? The papers Tyler is presumably talking about. Will AI kill those economic research papers? Probably not, but it will likely improve it significantly. Why? For the same reason that Michael Kremer says that technology and quality of life improve with the size of the human population. More people means more ideas, and there is nothing more important to economic growth than the sheer number of ideas. And no, I do not mean ideas generated by AI’s. I mean the raw number of researchers with the capacity to make major contributions is increasing dramatically because we’re all getting research assistants. We’re all getting copy editors. We’re all getting support. That’s how AI is going to change the research paper: by giving more ideas the support they need to reach the light of publication. The bar is going to get higher for the same reason that the level of sports improve as you widen the geography they pull from. There’s someone at a directional state school who didn’t get the placement they deserved out of grad school. Sure they have to teach a 3-3 load, but they’re licking their chops right now because they don’t need an army of grad assistants. Summer is here and they’ve got everything they need to make a contribution.

Or I don’t know. Maybe AI will do all of our thinking in 50 years. Forecasting technology beyond 5 years is like forecasting weather beyond 5 days: I can’t do it and neither can you.**

*Apologies to Justin Wolfers and all my Aussie friends for a bit of cultural appropriation. I promise to put some Vegemite on toast while enjoying a flat white and explaining Aussie Rules Football to a friend within 90 days.

**Except for Neal Stephenson. That guy’s the Warren Buffet of Sci Fi forecasting. Maybe he’s the one in a billion person actually experiencing one in a billion level luck, but that doesn’t make it any less impressive.

The Empire Strikes Back against AI Cheating

People are considering whether university evaluations can survive in the AI age. Hollis Robbins wrote on Substack: “How to limit unauthorized AI use in the classroom

Robbins emphasizes class size and teaching load against the time of an instructor.  An instructor teaching 4 sections with 100 students each is very limited in their ability to monitor and prosecute AI teaching. It’s worse if this instructor is on a temporary contract.

Limited eyes and hands and human attention really are a constraint here, at least for now. Some people see AI tools in the hands of students as the end of education itself.

I have been tweeting my replies to this:

I don’t do remote exams, but I hear about improvements to remote proctoring technology. The arms race is not over.

Technology goes both ways. The phone students were using to cheat are now being marshalled as a “second camera” for remote test proctoring. Instructors are going to largely win this year if they take current technology seriously, for multiple choice and short answer evaluations.

The commercial Respondus program has just added Word extensions. This technology already exists and can run on the students’ laptops.

Right now, a clever student might still be able to shift their carbon-based eyes to a direction where the answer is displayed illicitly. And the instructor’s eyes can only monitor so many eyes. This is all so 2024. This conversation may be over soon. Human students can be placed under the supervision of machine eyes. Right now, we are still dealing with issues of false positives when machines flag students for cheating, but the machines are improving.

I believe that the roads will eventually be dominated by machine drivers and their unblinking eyes. Humans might drive cars for fun in the hinterlands, but it will no longer be considered a serious thing humans to do for work. Monitoring student cheating will become like truck driving. Human eyes are on the way out. We are going to become more cheat-proof than college has ever been before.

As a college professor, that will have implications for my job, although I can imagine a not-completely-negative future. Maybe I could do more fun work with students because the work of proctoring will be handled automatically. I have spent many many hours constructing tests that would be hard to cheat on and watching students take them. I take cheating seriously, and all the faculty at my business school work hard to protect the value of our degree. I predict that this will become a trivial part of teaching within 10 years.

Will students respond with various forms of hacking and deep fakes against such a system? Maybe. So far, in any arms race, Uncle Sam has been winning in the end for a century now.

If there is a will to do so, we could even bring back the research paper by having students work on a monitored computer that does not let them use AI to write. (We could almost do that already, but perhaps the true limiting factor is that, as I like to say, readers are that which is scarce.)

[Credit to my colleagues Art Carden and Anna Leigh Stone who have talked with me about test proctoring this semester.]

100,000 Glyphosate Lawsuits: Why Roundup Does Not Kill Your Weeds Like It Used To

I don’t like wasting time bending over and pulling out weeds, one by one. Much more efficient to go squirt squirt and eliminate lots of weeds at a time. But I realized in the past year that the Roundup I spritzed on the weeds in my mulch beds and sidewalk cracks just wasn’t killing them like it used to. The weeds would shrivel a bit, but then many would bounce right back. So, when I went to Home Depot to buy some more this week, I looked at the ingredients on the label. What?? Where is the glyphosate? For decades, “Roundup” was synonymous with glyphosate.

Glyphosate has several desirable properties as an herbicide. You spray it on the leaves, and it kills the plants right down to the roots. However, it has minimal residual toxicity in the soil, so it is unlikely to kill any plants you did not spray, and you can replant quickly in a soil patch that you had cleared with glyphosate. Farmers love it, because you can buy genetically engineered strains of crops like corn that are immune to glyphosate, so you can spray your fields to kill weeds without harming standing crops.

The glyphosate story is much bigger than homeowners bending over to pull weeds. The chemical has become indispensable for current agriculture. Global glyphosate sales are about $10 billion per year, and its impact on crop productivity is enormous. A 2017 study (apparently not paid for by Monsanto) predicted dire effects of discontinuance:

World prices of all grains, oilseeds and sugar are expected to rise, especially soybeans (+5.4%) and rapeseed (+2%). The welfare impacts are mostly negative, with global welfare falling by $7,408 million per year. Land use changes will arise, with an additional cropping area of 762,000 ha, of which 53% derives from new land brought into cropping agriculture, including 167,000 of deforestation. These land use changes are likely to induce the generation of an additional 234,000 million kg of carbon dioxide emissions.

What’s not to like about glyphosate? Well, maybe it causes cancers in humans. This is a contested claim, and I don’t have the expertise to penetrate the arguments. Because glyphosate makers like Monsanto and its successors Bayer have deep pockets, lawyers on contingency have swarmed like killer bees to file lawsuits, over 100,000 of them, of which about 60,000 remain active globally.

National security issues have muddied the waters here. For instance, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. led a landmark legal case against Monsanto in 2018, securing a $289 million jury verdict (later reduced on appeal to $20.4 million) for a school groundskeeper who developed non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma after prolonged exposure to Roundup. That case energized a bazillion further lawsuits. But now Kennedy is going along with the current administration’s position that it is strategically necessary to maintain production and responsible access to glyphosate: farmers demand it, and Bayer operates the only plant in the U.S. producing significant amounts of elemental phosphorus, which is a vital material for defense and, increasingly, for lithium batteries.

Naturally, Bayer denies that glyphosate is particularly harmful. The firm continues to sell the product to farmers and landscape professionals, but it has removed it from retail bottles of Roundup you see on Home Depot shelves, in an effort to reduce exposure for further litigation.

What have they substituted for good old glyphosate? I found a brew of three other chemicals. I can report reliably that this mixture is much less effective, especially on grasses and on well-established weeds. The Internet backs up my observations. The Iowa State garden extension has a great table of the real-world effects of all common herbicides.

So, what to do? For grasses in my backyard gravel patch, I am spraying multiple times. If that doesn’t work, I may try covering that area with a black tarp for a month to kill the grass. I have considered buying a propane flamethrower weeder, but that seems only effective on the same things the current wimpy Roundup kills (small/young broadleaf weeds).

For mulched areas, I am incentivized to keep up with fresh mulch to keep weeds from growing in the first place. For larger weeds, I have now found myself bending down low, grasping them close to the ground, and actually pulling them out by hand.

Allbirds, Inc. Attempts Pivot from Making Wool Sneakers to AI Computing

A native New Zealander, Tim Brown had two separate ambitions: to become a professional soccer player and a designer. On the soccer (“football”, outside North America) front, he succeeded beyond expectations. He played on the New Zealand national team between 2004 and 2012, often as captain or vice-captain.  Brown executed a personal pivot in 2012. After retiring from soccer, he enrolled in the London School of Economics to learn the business skills needed to launch an idea he had been mulling for several years. This was a shoe made mainly of wool.

He wanted to give a boost to New Zealand’s declining sheep in industry (battered by competition from polyester textiles), and wanted to promote something more sustainable than the plasticky shoes that he was always being asked to endorse as a professional player. There seemed to be plenty of room in the half-billion dollar per year footwear industry for something more environmentally friendly.

Brown launched his idea on Kickstarter in 2014, raising over $100,000. He and his partner started selling the Allbirds Wool Runner in 2016. Their green vibe was perfect for that era, and their shoes became wildly popular among the Silicon Valley VC set. They were seen on Larry Page, Barack Obama, Leonardo DiCaprio, and a whole gaggle of Hollywood actors and actresses.

Allbirds expanded its product line, and opened brick and mortar stores on several continents. Allbirds went public in 2021, and its market value ran up to $4 billion. But then the novelty of wool shoes wore off, sustainability became less urgent, and it became widely known that these “Wool Runners” are too flimsy to actually run or exercise in. They are more like slippers, and folks outside of Hollywood or Silicon Valley were not eager to pay $150 for a pair of slippers. Also, better-capitalized competitors muscled into the sustainable footwear market. Sales slid down and down, management conflicts erupted, and founder Tim Brown left to pursue other interests. On April 1, Allbirds announced it was selling the remnants of its shoe business for an ignominious $39 million.

So far, the story is unremarkable – – as with so many other startups, idealistic founders have initial success, but eventually go under upon scale-up. But there is an interesting plot twist. Instead of just going chapter 7 BK, paying off creditors, and returning a few pennies to investors, the company is using the shell of its former business to generate capital and transform itself into a new AI venture of renting out computing centers for AI usage. I assume the managers wanted to keep their jobs as managers, and cooked up this scheme to traffic on the current AI hype.


Apparently, these guys know nothing about GPU centers, so they’ll have to hire folks with expertise. Some unknown investor is backing them to the tune of $50 million, but they will have to raise much more than that to compete in the AI server business. That will horribly dilute current stockholders. They are directly competing with much better-capitalized behemoths like CoreWeave and Oracle, that can raise money on better terms. No moat, no expertise, almost no capital. But, hey, it’s AI, and so the company stock BIRD soared 600% on the news of the computing pivot.

I give them modest odds of succeeding bigly, but sometimes a mission pivot like this does come off. I’m thinking of the 1960’s when Berkshire Hathaway, facing declining earnings from its core textile business, under the leadership of Warren Buffett shifted into insurance. That generated the “float” that then enabled the purchase of other profitable businesses. We shall see if Allbirds (soon to be “NewBird”) management can likewise preside over such a seismic business shift.

Our glorious future is tech troubleshooting in space

Having enjoyed the quotes from our brave astronauts about software troubles, I wrote for Econlog:

Tech Troubleshooting in Space (EconLog)

Click to learn the story of email quote and why it went viral. With all due respect to Christina Koch, I think I’m the first woman in history to paraphrase The Notorious B.I.G. at Econlog.

Are we complaining? Tech has made our lives better. With only a few exceptions, everyone in the country chooses to have TVs and smartphones.

Digital tools like email save me time over what I can only imagine used to be sending paper memos or something. Did people have owls or pigeons or what? But some of that saved time goes to fighting new problems of evil people in cyberspace. Someone (Tyler?) points out that the “better angels of our nature” argument doesn’t look quite as rosy if you consider of all the digital criminality.

I do not know whom to credit for this banger: “Man is born free and everywhere he has to 2-factor authenticate.”

I had to do my annual mandatory employee Cyber Security training session this week. I don’t get paid extra to do this. It’s just work on top of my job. It’s estimated to take 40 minutes to complete. (I powered through in under 15 minutes.) We are obviously living in the future with iPads that translate foreign languages for refugee kids in real time and all, but it would feel more glorious if I could stop these phishing trainings.

If quantum/AI means the end of privacy and cheap tech connectivity, then what will that mean for productivity? To send a secure message to someone, we might need to go back to owl post. Get ready for mandatory annual owl training.