Author: Scott Buchanan

Bond Market Blows Off Treasury Bond Buyback; Gold and Bitcoin Soar

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Scott Bessent used to be a serious financial player. When he was with George Soros’s fund, he helped them make a billion dollars in 1992 by betting against the British pound, and $1.3 billion in 2013 with a bet against the Japanese yen. He also ran his own hedge fund, with as much as $5 billion under management. In 2023-2024 he hitched his wagon to the fortunes of Donald Trump, becoming a large campaign contributor and fundraiser. He was rewarded by being made Treasury Secretary. On January 27, 2025, the U.S. Senate voted to confirm Bessent’s nomination. (The same day, a man with multiple Molotov cocktails and a knife who intended to murder Bessent was arrested at the United States Capitol, an event seemingly lost in the noise of all the attempted assassination attempts against this administration).

The current administration has continued the policy of the previous administration of profligate peacetime federal deficit spending, some 6% of GDP annually, well above the 50-year average of about 3.8%. The only way to finance this spend is to sell more and more Treasury debt. But the more of that debt is out there, the more interest needs to be paid on it. By the mid-2030’s, interest payments will balloon to the point that they, plus mandatory transfer payments like Medicare/Medicaid/Social Security, will consume 100% of tax revenues, with nothing left for discretionary spending (including defense). Being the cabinet officer responsible for financing this mess now is sort of like being CFO of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

Which brings us to the ignominious market response to Bessent’s attempt at bond market intervention last week. As it has become more and more clear to the rest of the world that the U.S. has no intention of reining in its deficit, but instead hopes to deal with it by inflating away the value of the dollar, the market has started to demand greater compensation for holding long-term U.S. debt. If you are wondering why you now have to pay 6.65 % for a 30-year mortgage, wonder no longer. These high interest rates are making it all the more painful for Treasury to fund the deficit.

Secretary Bessent made a surprise announcement last Wednesday that his department would double its maximum purchase of older, less-liquid long-term bonds, from $2 billion per week to $4 billion. The stated purpose of this long-running buyback program is to retire hard-to-trade bonds and replace them with newer, more-liquid bonds. That’s fine, but this snap announcement shortly after its quarterly refunding plan broke with Treasury’s long-held strategy of making ‘regular and predictable’ announcements, and (together with statements by Bessant threatening further intervention) was widely seen as an attempt to talk down the long-term rates.

It worked for about one day. Long term yields initially dipped Wednesday morning by about 0.1%, but by Thursday they were about back to where they were before the announcement. Not only did traders realize the size of the intervention was far too small to move the enormous T-bond market (and would not net decrease T-bonds outstanding), but Treasury’s move became interpreted as a sign of desperation over funding the U.S. deficit. That vibe will not help bring down Treasury bond rates going forward. The value of the dollar dipped on world exchanges, while the price of alternatives such as gold and Bitcoin soared:

That is a chart of Bitcoin price in the past month. HODLers rejoice, the long crypto winter may be over…

WWII Strategic Initiatives 6. Fort Commander’s Lonely Decision Saves Norwegian Government from Capture by Germans

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At 4:21 a.m. on April 9, 1940, a 64-year-old Norwegian colonel six months from retirement had about ninety seconds to decide whether to start a war.

Birger Eriksen, who entered Norwegian military service way back in 1893, commanded Oscarsborg, a sleepy coastal fortress on a rocky island in the Oslofjord, armed with three 28cm (11 inch) Krupp guns dating to the 1890s – – plus a secret weapon the Germans didn’t know about: torpedo tubes from 1901. His garrison was mostly reservists conscripted a week earlier. Out of the pre-dawn dark came six unlit, unidentified warships steaming toward Oslo.  Norway had assumed that its diligently neutral stance would avert any foreign attack, and so was lax about maintaining coastal surveillance. The ships could have been British. Firing on the wrong flag meant international catastrophe; not firing, if they were German, meant the capital fell before breakfast.

Colonel Birger Eriksen, the commander of Oscarsborg on 9 April 1940.

Eriksen had no orders from Oslo and no time to ask. He gave the command anyway, reportedly saying: “Either I will be decorated, or I will be court-martialed. Fire!”

The lead ship was the Blücher, a brand-new 16,000-ton heavy cruiser packed with troops, Gestapo officers, and administrators meant to seize the king, the government, and Norway’s gold reserves in one stroke. Two shells from the fort tore into her at point-blank range, followed by torpedoes into her flank. Within ninety minutes she rolled over and sank, taking hundreds of men down with her. The German attack on Oslo was not completely averted, but it was significantly delayed and hampered.

German Heavy Cruiser Blücher (Image by Bundesarchiv)

That single decision to attack the invading fleet bought Norway’s government just enough hours to flee Oslo by train with King Haakon VII — and to load 53 tons of gold bullion onto trucks barely ahead of the advancing German columns. The gold made it out to Britain via a harrowing overland and sea relay; the government reached London and kept functioning as a legitimate exile authority, which gave the Norwegian resistance something to fight for rather than just against. Also, Norway had an enormous (~1000 ships) merchant marine fleet, and the intact, legitimate Norwegian government in exile ordered it into the service of the Allies, right when Britain desperately needed ships and sailors to transport cargo to stay in the war.

The strategic hangover lasted five years. Hitler, rattled by the loss of the king and by ongoing Allied fake Scandinavian invasion plans, garrisoned Norway with somewhere around 300,000–400,000 troops for the rest of the war. This was a staggering commitment, sitting largely idle when they could have made a decisive impact elsewhere. One old colonel, one hunch, one order — which tied down a whole German army guarding a country it barely needed.

This is the sixth in a series of occasional blog posts on individual initiatives that made a strategic (not just tactical) difference in the course of the second world war, an event that gave us the world of the second half of the twentieth century. Here are previous posts:

WW II Key Initiatives 1: FDR Prodded the Navy to Convert Cruisers to Carriers, Just in Time

WW II Key Initiatives 2: “Thatch Weave” Tactic to Counter More-Agile Japanese Fighter Planes

WW II Key Initiatives 3: Kurt Tank Gives Germany a Superior Fighter Plane, the Focke-Wulf 190

WW II Key Initiatives 4: Building Hundreds of Small, Slow, But Cheap Ships to Counter the U-Boat Threat

WWII Key Initiatives 5: General Zhukov Helped Save USSR By Mastering the Pincers Counterattack

Boy Wonder Leopold Aschenbrenner Blows Up His $45 Billion Situational Awareness Hedge Fund

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Leopold Aschenbrenner is a very bright guy. Born in Germany to physician parents, he skipped enough grades to graduate from high school at age 15, allowing him to enroll at Columbia University in 2017 at that same age. He went on to graduate from Columbia at age 19 as valedictorian with a degree in economics and mathematics-statistics. An econ prof at the time said his “record of scholarship exceeds that of any student in the department in the previous 20 years.” The Mercatus Center, a think tank at George Mason University, recognized his potential, awarding him an Emergent Ventures grant.

Leopold Aschenbrenner, Columbia Class of 2021 Valedictorian

After graduation, Aschenbrenner moved into the effective-altruism research and grantmaking world, making notable contributions in various ways. In 2023, he joined the newly created “Superalignment” team at OpenAI, that was charged with making conceptual and engineering progress on aligning systems “much smarter than humans” before such systems were built. The next year he was discharged by OpenAI; the company said it was because of a security leak, but his version (which I find more credible) is that he was ousted as retaliation for circulating an internal memo arguing that the company’s protections against model-weight theft and algorithmic exfiltration were inadequate for AGI-relevant work.

Two months after his departure from OpenAI, he self-published Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead, which you can download here.    This monograph synthesized scaling-law extrapolations, geopolitical analysis, and AI-lab security commentary into a single forecast: that the largest AI labs, on current trends, will plausibly reach AGI around 2027 and that an intelligence explosion to superintelligence could occur in the subsequent few years. This work went viral on Wall Street, and before you can say “monetization”, he was leading a hedge fund named, appropriately enough, Situational Awareness. There he put into practice his convictions that the demand for compute would be voracious, and would be limited by physical constraints such as electricity and chip fabs.

Thus, in his fund he went long companies like SanDisk (memory fab), Bloom Energy (makes solid oxide fuel cells), and Nebius (builds whole data centers). Very long, in fact, with leverage reportedly as high as 400%. He tried to hedge this long book by shorting software companies which are viewed as vulnerable to disruption by AI. This strategy worked fabulously for a while. His assets under management (AUM) climbed to $45 billion, with returns in the first 6-7 months of 2026 approaching 400%. Not bad for a 25-year-old.

But then, genius failed (yet again)- -in a stunning reversal, the market rebelled in late July against big AI capex spends, dumping memory fabs and infrastructure, and bought into the maligned software (SaaS) sector. So, BOTH his long and short legs went against him, followed in due course by the dreaded margin calls. Aschenbrenner’s $45 billion shrank to a measly $10 billion in a matter of days, as he was forced to sell off his public equities at a discount to those friendly capitalist sharks at Citadel. Wise old heads wagged, saying, yup, this sort of Black Swan event always happens sooner or later, and you then get carried out on a stretcher if you run a highly leveraged bet that is not truly hedged.

Down, but not out – – The word on the Street is that folks with money to invest are already lining up to entrust more bazillions to our altruistic wizard. We have not heard the last of Leopold Aschenbrenner.

Warsh’s Low/No Guidance Approach at Fed Makes Market Participants Nervous – – Which May Be a Good Thing

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Under Jerome Powell, a typical FOMC meeting had become almost a market event in itself. Traders didn’t just care about the rate decision. They dissected every word of the statement, every sentence of the press conference, and especially the “dot plot,” looking for clues about where rates might be six months or a year from now. The Fed wasn’t simply setting monetary policy—it was guiding expectations. Markets often moved as much on hints about future decisions as on the decision itself.

The first two FOMC meetings under Kevin Warsh have felt very different. The dot plots are gone. Forward guidance has largely disappeared. Instead of trying to signal the likely path of policy, Warsh has repeatedly stressed that the Fed will respond to incoming data when it arrives, not commit itself to forecasts that could prove wrong. At his latest press conference, he described avoiding forward guidance as “prudent” given current uncertainty, while reminding reporters that “There is no soft or alternative inflation target—only 2%.”

This is a huge change in communication style, which is having real world consequences.

Warsh long argued that forward guidance can box policymakers into decisions based on yesterday’s forecasts instead of tomorrow’s realities. That is, once their tentative plans had been put out in public, there was a psychological bias among Fed members to lock in on those projections, which would inhibit their ability to rationally interact with the most recent data and situation. So now, rather than telling markets what the Fed expects to do, he wants investors to make decisions based on fundamental economic conditions, knowing that the central bank will react only after the facts justify it. At the latest FOMC meeting he said, “Market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee—and market prices will continue to respond in the direction and magnitude they see fit. This is, in my view, a change for the better—and we are just getting started.”

That approach chips away at what investors have come to call the “Fed Put”—the belief, built up since the 2008 financial crisis, that the central bank will fairly quickly and forcefully step in to support markets whenever things get rough.

If that belief fades, financiers may think twice before taking excessive risks. Leverage becomes more dangerous if there is less confidence that easier monetary policy will quickly arrive to cushion losses. Risk premiums may better reflect actual economic uncertainty rather than expectations of future Fed support. That is the possible good side of Warsh’s more hands-off approach. Ideally, business people will exercise more prudence on their own, lessening the odds of financial catastrophes that would require Fed intervention.

On the other hand, markets hate uncertainty, and less guidance means more volatility around Fed meetings. I think Powell tried to use sheer talking (jaw-boning) as a tool to influence market rates, lessening the need for the Fed to actually employ its blunt instruments there. Warsh seems to have taken that tool off the table.

Also, I think some (not all) the causation for the rise in 30-year Treasury bonds to twenty-year highs, and of home mortgage rates to one-year highs accrues to Warsh. First, by eliminating dot plots and forward guidance, he has increased uncertainty about the future path of policy. Investors can no longer confidently assume the Fed will ease at the first sign of economic weakness. That uncertainty can raise the term premium, pushing long-term yields higher.

Second, if markets believe the “Fed Put” is weaker, they may demand higher yields to hold long-term bonds because they perceive less protection from adverse economic or financial shocks. In other words, investors require more compensation for risk.

Whether today’s higher long-term rates are a healthy reflection of economic realities, or an unhealth drag on growth, is a matter of debate.

What Is So Special About Object-Oriented Programming Languages Like C++ and Python?

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I first learned computer programming about 1974, using FORTRAN running on an IBM 360 system that, yes, filled a whole room. And yes, my source code existed in the form of a stack of cards with holes punched in them, which got run through a physical card reader. FORTRAN and similar old-school languages were efficient (b/c computer resources were so constrained) and syntactically simple for solving well-specified problems.

C++ started to become popular in the 1980s, and Java in the 1990s. A big part of their appeal was that they were “object-oriented programming” (OOP) languages. I repeatedly asked my computer-programming professional friends back then to help me understand the difference between OOP and conventional Fortran type programs. They would get misty-eyed and rhapsodize about how their program components were modularized.  I guess I just failed to ask the right questions, because I never could understand why what they were talking about was so very much better or different than a good clean FORTRAN program, where most of the work was compartmentalized into well-defined functions and sub routines.

So I had a good talk with Claude about all this, and achieved enlightenment.. The differences seem to come down to a couple of key concepts:


(1) Data Compartmentalization

 In FORTRAN, you can modularize the data manipulation steps into subroutines, but the data tends to be more in common. Thus, for a very large programs, it is hard to keep some far-distant subroutine from accidentally altering your data. But with OOP, the data and the manipulation methods are “encapsulated” into one airtight thing, so no outside routine can mess with that data.

(2) More Robust Relations Among Chunks of Code

With OOP, there is also a feature called “inheritance”, where some new method can take advantage of an existing method, in a cleaner way than (in the FORTAN world) having a new subroutine call an existing subroutine, which would involve explicitly passing a bunch of parameters back-and-forth (which is very easy to mess up).

For doing fairly straightforward scientific calculations, even big ones, I think FORTRAN is still easier and more efficient. But for modern financial programs, involving millions of lines, written by huge teams of people that cannot all talk to one another, the win goes to OOP. Besides C++ and Java (still popular), in OOP we now have C# (standard for many Windows and gaming applications), and the crowd favorite, Python.


(That’s about it simply as I could put it, without getting long-winded and technical… If you want more details, you can always ask my buddy Claude)

Teamwork with “Tiki-Taka”: The Secret to Spain’s World Cup Successes

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I am not an attentive soccer (football) follower, but it was hard to ignore the 2026 FIFA World Cup being played in my own country (or at least my own continent). I tuned in for more and more games as the play progressed. Spain progressed further and further along, and finally won the gold.

This was not a one-off fluke. Spain won the World Cup in 2010, and has dominated European soccer for the past 3-4 years. Spain also won the most recent women’s World Cup in 2023. My inquiring mind naturally wanted to know what was behind this success. Spain’s population (49 million) is below that of England, France, or of Germany, so it is not simply having a huge demographic to pull from.

When this question was posted on Reddit, a Spanish fan gave this answer:

This is an interesting question with a lot of possible answers.

The most evident one is the Olympic Games of Barcelona 1992. This created a huge shockwave in Spain, which was still a little bit “isolated” from the rest of the world. The preparation of these games and their success made Spain invest a lot of money on sports infrastructure, trainers and programs, which directly impacted on the accomplishments of the big Spanish sportsmen of that generation: Rafa Nadal, Pau Gasol, Fernando Alonso, the whole Spanish football team 2008-2012 and many others. The success of the modern Spanish football team is supported by them.

But it also has a more deep and old reason. Before the 21st century the Spanish football team, even if they didnt win titles, managed to get good positions in international tournaments. Why? Spaniards have been, traditionally, smaller and weaker than the other Europeans (even if that has obviously changed). We couldn’t engage on physical play with the Dutch, Germans, French, English etc. that ran faster and were stronger than us. We don’t even have that many physical players TODAY. So, we had to rely on mentality and skill.

So the team started to become recognized by their fierce attitude,     their relentless energy and attacking spirit, gaining the nickname of “La furia Roja” (red fury). And also had to rely on skill, passes, building the game from behind and being more tactical and strategical on the field. This set the foundations for the modern “tiki-taka“, the Barça and Spanish playstyle that basically created modern football. These two things, plus Barcelona ’92 were the perfect mix to create a football tradition for many years.

Poking around the AI and Wikipedia and other sources, I found that this reply did a good job summarizing the sources of Spain’s success. I will just elaborate on a few aspects here.

Certainly, the Spanish technique of rapid, relentless passing (so-called tiki-taka) to maintain possession and to draw the opponent out of position to create scoring opportunities was in full view in this World Cup. It is more efficient and effective to rapidly move the ball than to run your players around.  The specifics of this style actually puzzled me when I watched it. In my brief, undistinguished non-career in intramural soccer, I was taught to receive a pass by controlling it with typically two taps, then maybe kick it onward with a third “touch”. But the Spanish players would take an incoming pass and just whack it onward with only one “touch.” That takes exquisite control; get that wrong by just a hair on one of those dozens and dozens of taps back and forth, and there goes your possession.

The internet agrees that Spanish teams historically could not compete head-to-head physically with a team full of hulking northern Europeans, and so they deliberately came up with this alternative playing style that relied on skillful control, not brute strength or size. Another strategic decision by Spanish coaches (trusting in their team’s ball control skills to maintain possession) is to play the defenders up-field, closer to the opponent’s goal, where they can play a role in building attacking pressure.

This playing style depends heavily on teamwork, and is the style promoted through all levels of the Spanish junior/farm teams as well. The whole team operates like a hive-mind organism, with players thinking several moves ahead and trusting the others to do the right thing at the right time. Unlike some other teams, this system is not dependent on one or two superstars to carry the load. I found the Spanish play to be an inspiring facet this year of “the beautiful game.”

How To Get Spare Car Fob Made Inexpensively (And Why It Is Wise to Do So)

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When we recently traded in for a newer car, we were handed two fobs. These are push-button start cars, so you absolutely need a fob to drive one. An old-fashioned metal key will not work. Even the hidden metal key in your fob is only good for unlocking the door, not for starting the car. Since life has schooled me that things get lost, I asked how much it would cost to get a spare fob made at time of purchase, hoping I might catch a break.  Nope, the dealer cost would be $436. Ouch.

So, I later asked AI what to do. I was advised to have a non-dealer locksmith or hardware store do it instead. With this route, you might save even more money if you buy the blank fob yourself on Amazon for something like $30, and just have the locksmith program it and cut the hidden metal key.

A local ACE hardware store quoted me a price of $330, which is better than $436, but still not great. But I located a mobile locksmith, who drives a big van loaded with spare keys and fobs, and the equipment to cut key copies and to program fobs. He specializes in going and helping folks who are locked out of their cars, and he will drive to your house to make spare fobs and keys.   He would come to our house to make a new fob for $270. But it gets even better – – if I had two fobs made in one visit, the price would be only $220 apiece. It was an offer I could not refuse, so now I have spares for both cars.

If you don’t have a working fob for the locksmith to work from:  It turns out that for many foreign cars (Subaru, Toyota, and especially most European brands), it can be very difficult for a non-dealer locksmith to create a fob for you. Normally, if you find yourself locked out of your car some dark, snowy night, the mobile locksmith can roll up and create a new fob for you so you can get back in business. For brands like Ford, GM, Honda, and Nissan, he can accomplish this even if you can’t provide him with a working fob to copy. He will charge you twice as much, because it is a much harder job with no working template fob. It gets even harder for, say, Subaru. But for Mercedes-Benz or BMW, it may be impossible for most locksmiths to get a fob made on the spot without a working model to copy.  In a big metro area, there may be a few locksmiths who have the specialized equipment for these brands; you’d have to call around and ask the locksmith especially if they can make a new, say, Mercedes fob for an “all-keys-lost” situation. If not, you may have to get towed on a flat-bed ($$$) to a dealer, who can read your vehicle and program the fob ($$$). There may be a middle ground (which will take some days to play out) where you order a blank fob from a dealer along with some essential info for your locksmith to complete the programming, or where you order a programmed fob by mail.

All this argues for having a spare fob made ahead of time; maybe stash it somewhere that a friend or family member could bring it to you, if you were in distress not too far away.

Bonus fob tip: If your fob battery dies, you can still start your car by using the conventional metal key hidden inside your fob to open the car door, and then hold the fob very close to the car ignition button as you push the button, with your foot on the brake as usual.

Some Must-Knows for Dying Well

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I have been involved in caregiving for two persons as they were dying. Some years ago, I was the main caregiver for the last few days of a parent, and quite recently I was a support person for another death in my extended family.

On the Internet, there are plenty of compendiums of advice on how to prepare for this eventuality. There are also old-fashioned hardcopy books out there. It’s too big a subject to treat as a whole in a short blog post, so I am going to just focus on one link in the chain of end-of-life care. I am picking out this item because it’s so vital, but it can be one of the hardest steps to execute well.

This step is for the responsible caregivers to obtain, nay, demand, hospice care status, when the appropriate time comes. And then to insist on maximum levels of palliative meds, again, as appropriate.

You might think that this is the obvious, normal course of medical treatment. But (and this is a key point) this runs contrary to what medical practice is normally geared for. Doctors and hospitals exist largely to “save” lives. When someone gets carted into the emergency room, the normal response is to stick tubes into them and fight to keep them alive. Anything less would be considered irresponsible (and possibly grounds for a lawsuit).

And so, the family caregivers may need to fight with the hospital doctors at this point. I am not overdramatizing here. I know of a case where someone in their 90s, and the family and the nursing home staff had good reasons to believe this person was in the process of dying, and at the emergency room was found to have a secondary condition that was probably treatable by antibiotics. The emergency room doctor naturally wanted to do all the usual stuff with IVs and meds, but in this case the family caregiver (backed up by the nursing home staff) insisted on palliative care only and on immediate hospice qualification. Things got kind of testy with the emergency room staff, but these strong women (caregiver and nursing home nurse) got their way, and so the patient was able to quickly receive palliative care.

Hospice care is amazing. It allows the provision of what a professional caregiver called “comfort juice” – – a cocktail of morphine for physical pain relief, and anti-anxiety meds for psychological calming.

That’s the kind of thing you want when the dying process sets in. Most people wish that they could just pass peacefully in their sleep, or maybe from an instantaneous massive heart attack or brain aneurysm. Sadly, that’s not usually the way it happens. The body is programmed to fight to stay alive, so the death process can be prolonged, uncomfortable, and very undignified. Even with the pain meds, there may be stages in the process that are distressing for the family to witness, but at least they know they are doing all that can be done.

Main Takeaway:  If you are the potentially dying person, choose your medical POA (Power of Attorney) very carefully. The POA needs to be strong, competent, and 100% on board with your wishes of no prolonging life. She/he may have to fight like a bulldog to get your pain meds increased if there are signs of distress. We often treat our dogs better than we do our dying seniors. A good pet owner doesn’t let them suffer unnecessarily.

The PAO (and his/her allies) may have to take tough, unpopular stands. Within the broader family, there will likely be a few squeamish members who may want to hold back on the transition to hospice care. Maybe they fell they should “give mom/dad another chance” or they just don’t feel ready to lose the person quite yet. I think doctors may read the room, and withhold hospice if there are some family members that are advocating the normal treatment measures.  Again, no doctor wants to be sued.  Therefore, instruct your POA and your tougher caregivers to try to keep the weak family members away as much as possible when decision making must be done.

Life Among the Geeks: Impressions from an Amateur Radio (Ham) Field Day

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When visiting a large county park the other day, I noticed a sign for “Amateur Radio Field Day, Public Welcome.” I have always had great respect for amateur radio operators, for their technical prowess and for their service in emergencies when other forms of communication go down. So, I wandered over to see what was happening.

There were maybe half a dozen large screened in gazebo type tents. In each gazebo there were one or two men seated before some radio apparatus on a table, with a couple other guys sitting in more of a spectator role, chatting away. Someone had used a potato cannon to shoot a fishing line over the top of a tall tree, which was then used to pull up a rope, which was then used to pull up a long antenna wire. There was also a tall standalone antenna mast, held erect by three guy wires staked to the ground.

What were these guys doing? There were mainly doing what hams mainly do, which is reaching out across the continent and across the globe, to make contact via radio with other amateur radio operators. Some were doing it by voice communication, using single side band (SSB) technology for more efficient transmissions. Some were using a computer interface to turn their transmissions into a digital format, which could be transmitted and received more effectively. The guy on the other end would have matching software to turn the numbers back into words.

And there was one guy doing it the old-fashioned way, listening to “beep, beep, beedily beep” Morse code coming in, and transcribing that to letters and numbers. The Morse code beeps can cut through radio clutter more strongly than voice signals, allowing more distant contacts with relatively low power. Which is kind of a bragging point.

The special thing about so-called short waves used by hams is that they can reflect or refract from the underside of charged layers high up in the atmosphere. Your signal can bounce off those layers and come back to earth hundreds or thousands of miles away. Before the Internet, this was actually a big deal. The only other ways to communicate back then with distant people were snail mail, telegraph, or long-distance telephone, which was super expensive and grid dependent. I put together a short-wave video kit around 1970, and it was pretty amazing to hear a station broadcasting from Ecuador, not to mention Radio Moscow. Voice of America and BBC short wave broadcasts helped to keep the ideal of freedom alive in Soviet occupied Europe for many decades.

The guys in the park (I didn’t see any women operators, although I know they exist) were enthusiastic and friendly. When I mentioned I have a grandson who seems interested in technology, a man pressed on me an envelope filled with electronic components, and a small circuit board, encouraging me to help my grandson solder the parts into the board to make a short-wave receiver for Morse code. I thanked him sincerely, but said I might wait till my grandson was seven or eight before embarking on this project.

I am something of a techie myself, with a professional career in chemical engineering. But I found myself far out-geeked by these gentlemen. They would be certainly eager to help in the amount of emergency, but that’s actually a very rare event. It seems much of the thrill is simply the technology itself. To truly understand antenna theory, and even to design and build your own radio, are marks of distinguishment in that crowd. What I found most interesting from a psychological point of view was that when they do connect with someone 1000 or 10,000 miles away, they usually do not stop to chitchat about things like, how’s the weather where you are, how long have you been doing this, etc. No, nothing of normal human interest, it’s just: dutifully log the other party’s location and call sign, and move on to make the next contact.

My takeaway: as I’ve done maybe once a decade, I peered into my soul to assess whether I wanted to invest the time and money into pursuing this hobby. I could crank up my aging brain to pass the technical exams required to get an amateur radio operator’s license. But to set up a working short-wave radio and antenna, and get proficient at using it, would take a lot of effort. And in the Internet age, reaching out and touching someone on a different continent in real time just is not the rush that it used to be. As a responsible citizen, the emergency preparedness aspect is of interest to me. However, there is a newer, alternative class of radio called GMRS, which I think may be more realistic for most emergency situations. My encounter the other day with the hams did cause me to reengage with GMRS, and I may write a blog post about that in the future.