All good Bayesians should donate to the Ukraine today

The Kyiv department of economics has created what appears to be a vetted and relatively efficient channel for donating to the care of the Ukraine people during this crisis. You can donate via credit card or crypto. This is very much one of those cases where I believe every little bit helps. Consider:

  1. Russia planning and logistical failures mean a continuing heavy invasion may not be sustainable, leading instead to a long runing siege. If this is the case, then it becomes all the more important to get basic humanitarian resources in now in order to minimize the suffering caused by the siege and minimize the odds of Russian success.
  2. Ukrainian resistance depends as much on morale as it does lethal resources. Knowing their families are fed and receiving basic healthcare is critical.
  3. If the micro-returns protecting a Ukrainian soldier or feeding a Ukrainian family aren’t enough for you, here’s a macro one: if the autocratic leader of an increasingly fascist regime with the strategic advantage of a nuclear arsenal is rebuffed in the Ukraine by a heroic local resistance partnered by global economic sanctions, it will serve as a signal to every leader with similar aspirations that success is less likely than they previously estimated. If your donation can help force a Bayesian update on dangerous autocrats and strongmen everywhere, that seems like nothing less than a perfectly rational act of utility maximization to me.

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