Economist Writing Every Day

Back in January I encouraged you to follow the money in the Presidential race, by which I meant follow the betting markets. I suggested this was a good way to cut through the sometimes inaccuracy of polls, and the uncertainty of listening to any one expert or group of experts. Bettors in prediction markets can take all of these into account.

Lately of course the big question in the Presidential race is whether Biden will actually be the Democratic nominee. There is much uncertainty right now, and you will all kinds of predictions from experts, media quoting “inside sources,” and other such rumors. How are you, as a relatively uninformed outsider, supposed to know who to trust?

The answer again I will suggest is: watch the betting markets. And if you check the betting markets today (aggregated across multiple markets by EletionBettingOdds.com), you will see that Biden and Kamala Harris have roughly equal chances of becoming the next President (and Trump is about a 60% favorite):

Biden is still a slight favorite over Harris to be the Democratic candidate (though some markets like PredictIt have Harris slightly ahead), though in mid-May his odds were around 90%. It’s also becoming clear in these markets that if anyone replaces Biden, it is likely to be Harris. Again, you will hear much speculation and rumors about this question, but following the betting markets is a good check on the current state of the rumor mill.

Betting markets aren’t perfect. But no one piece of information or source is. But if you want to know what the best current state of knowledge is on this topic, I suggest checking Prediction Markets just as often as you check Social Media.