A recent Wall Street Journal declares “More High-School Grads Forgo College in Hot Labor Market.” An accompanying chart and data show the apparent plunge, with just 62% of recent high school grads enrolled in college, down from 66.2% before the pandemic, and well down from the high in 2009 of 70.1%.

The article recites the usual reasons. The high and increasing financial cost of attending college. The increasing opportunity cost due to the “hot labor market” mentioned in the headline. Large numbers of young people getting apprenticeships: apparently a 50% increase over some unstated timeframe!

They give anecdotes. A 21-year-old male in Maryland was put off by the high cost of a four-year degree. He likes working on cars, so instead got a job as a service technician at a Toyota dealership.

We’ve heard this all before. In fact, we know we’ve heard it before, because the WSJ article links to other WSJ articles saying the same thing over the past few years.

But are young people really skipping traditional four-year colleges for other opportunities? The answer is a big fat No. And we can even use the same data the WSJ used (from the CPS) to prove it, but slice it more finely. The percent of recent high school graduates enrolled in 4-year colleges and universities in 2022 was 45.1%. That’s slightly higher than 2019 (44.4%) and is, in fact, the second highest level ever in this data, with only 2016 being higher at 46%.

So what gives? The decline that the WSJ is reporting is entirely driven by a decline in enrollment at 2-year colleges, though you would never get a hint of that in the article. You might even think it was the opposite: perhaps young people are forgoing 4-year colleges in favor of trade schools! Nope. Here’s the data.

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