LinkedIn is OK, Actually

LinkedIn has its problems, but so does every other social network.

I joined LinkedIn out of college because it seemed like something you were supposed to do if you want a job someday, but I never checked it because the academic job market makes little use of LinkedIn. In 2013 LinkedIn added social media features like a newsfeed, but I still never spent time there. Facebook and Twitter seemed more interesting, and like many people I’ve always been allergic to “networking” or other social settings where one person is just trying to get something from another. It seemed like a recipe for posts that are cringe, soulless, or desperate.

But over the past couple years, I’ve found myself spending more time there- and not because I’m looking for a job or looking to hire. Some of the posts are genuinely interesting, and it is a nice way to keep up with what people I know are up to. Either LinkedIn got better or I got worse.

I find that LinkedIn is particularly good for staying in touch with my old students. I always told my students they could still e-mail me or stop by my office after the semester is over, but they almost never do; that takes a lot of thought and energy. Social networks are the ideal way to keep in touch with “weak ties“, but you have to find the right one. Facebook was the best for this when it was ubiquitous, but now it is becoming more common for Americans not to have or not to check Facebook, especially young ones (plus it was always a bit too personal for former students). Twitter has never been something that most people have, and the more popular networks are either too personal (Instragram, Snap et c) or too impersonal where almost all content users see comes from people they don’t know (TikTok, Youtube, et c).

LinkedIn by contrast is ubiquitous and just the right amount of personal. It also seems to be increasingly a good place to share interesting writing. I like much of what I read there, and my writing gets a good reception; I tend to get more engagement for EWED posts on LinkedIn than on X and Facebook despite having fewer connections there than Facebook friends or Twitter followers. Yes, you’ll still see some cringe posts there, but it beats the angry political posts that are ubiquitous on Facebook and especially X.

You can find me on LinkedIn here, if you dare.

How to Keep Up With Economics

… other than reading our blog, of course.

I was writing up something for my graduating seniors about how to keep learning economics after school, and realized I might as well share it with everyone. This may not be the best way to do things, it is simply what I do, and I think it works reasonably well.

Blogs by Economists: There are many good ones, but besides ours Marginal Revolution is the only one where I aim to read every post

Economic News: WSJ or Bloomberg

Podcasts on the Economy: NPR’s The Indicator (short, makes abstract concepts concrete), Bloomberg’s Odd Lots (deeper dives on subjects that move financial markets)

Podcasts by Economists: Conversations with Tyler and Econtalk (note that both often cover topics well outside of economics). Macro Musings goes the other way and stays super focused on monetary policy.

Twitter/X: This is a double-edged sword, or perhaps even a ring of power that grants the wearer great abilities even as it corrupts them. The fastest way to get informed or misinformed and angry, depending on who you follow and how you process information. Following the people I do gives you a fighting chance, but even this no guarantee; even assuming you totally trust my judgement, sometimes I follow people because they are a great source on one issue, even though I think they are wrong on lots of other things. Still, by revealed preference, I spend more time reading here than other single source.

Finance/Investing: Making this its own category because it isn’t exactly economics. Matt Levine has a column that somehow makes finance consistently interesting and often funny; unlike the rest of Bloomberg, you can subscribe for free. He also now has a podcast. If you’d like to run money yourself some day, try Meb Faber’s podcast. If you’d like things that touch on finance and economics but with more of a grounding in real-world business, try the Invest Like the Best podcast or The Diff newsletter.

Economics Papers: You can get a weekly e-mail of the new papers in each field you like from NBER. But most econ papers these days are tough to read even for someone with an undergrad econ degree (often even for PhDs). The big exception is the Journal of Economic Perspectives, which puts in a big effort to make its papers actually readable.

Books: This would have to be its own post, as there are too many specific ones to recommend, and I don’t know that I have any general principle of how to choose.

This is a lot and it would be crazy to just read all the same things I do, but I hope you will look into the things you haven’t heard of, and perhaps find one or two you think are worth sticking with. Also happy to hear your suggestions of what I’m missing.

EconTwitter Platforms and Threads

There is a community called #EconTwitter. This agglomeration of not-anonymous accounts links together professional economists, academics, and independent intellectuals. Twitter.com is the home base and origin of #EconTwitter. Mike wrote about turmoil in EconTwitter in December 2022. Find me on Twitter at @aboutJoy

The #EconTwitter group has experimented with leaving Twitter to join new networks. For some people, getting away from the billionaire owner is the explicit goal. Others join the new platform to be where the people are.

Mastodon launched in 2016 but it was not until recently that #EconTwitter made a go at that.

Mastodon is also part of the Fediverse ensemble of computer servers, which use shared protocols allowing users to interact with other users on computers running compatible software packages such as PeerTube and Friendica. Mastodon is crowdfunded and does not contain ads.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mastodon_(social_network)

Fediverse? Protocols? The average Twitter user does not want to be bothered with “computer servers”. That’s part of the problem. On Mastodon I am @JoyBuchanan@econtwitter.net

When I joined, I was not confident that it would build on the initial momentum. The reason that the move to Mastodon was large and sudden is that Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham volunteered to set up econtwitter.net It’s paid for out of his research budget and he serves as the monitor. He can ban anyone who violates his speech/civility rules. So there is a moderator but not one paid by Mastodon.

I wrote about “Content Moderation Strategy” back in April 2022 when Elon at Twitter was big news.

Elon Musk buying Twitter is the big news this week. He wants to enhance free speech on the site and, according to him, make it more open and fun. Some fans are hoping that he will make the content moderation and ban policy more transparent. 

me in April 2022

Some people thought Twitter would crash – as in go offline – because of Elon. That has not happened, but users and brands have been irked by his management and personal style.

EconTwitter at Mastodon is still going. As far as I can tell, most people have reverted to Twitter for their main feed because the audience is larger and writers want engagement. The level of engagement at Mastodon probably peaked about a month after Paul started the server for economists. One reason I think it never overtook real EconTwitter is that economists like having a big audience that includes journalists and sociologists. Silo-ing on an EconTwitter-dedicated server was less fun. People say they don’t want to have to deal with weird strangers online, but revealed preference indicates otherwise.

Another notable development was the launch of Bluesky. I’m there as @joybuchanan.bsky.social

Making a good handle at the beginning is easy and there is some upside if it turns out to attract a large community. A few “Twitter famous” people will join these new apps and commit to posting just in an attempt to unseat Twitter. This sort of works in the sense that both networks are still operating, however neither ever got close to the Twitter scale.

Threads, launched this week, might be different.

Mark Zuckerberg opened up Threads for anyone with an Instagram account, which most of us already have. Millions of people joined in just two days. If you already have an Insta, then you can download the free Threads app on your phone and port over your Insta account.

I’m @_Joy_Buchanan_ on Threads. The underscores might look awkward, but there is no “early adopter” phenomenon here, unless you were an early adopter of Instagram.

Brands and celebrities are comfortable on Threads, so it will be able to make money without asking users to pay for a Blue Check. I have no problem with Elon asking Twitter users to pay. Someone who is worried about free speech should want to be able to pay for service.

The Silicon Valley phrase is: “If you’re not paying for the product, you are the product.

That’s going to be true on Threads, since I’m not paying for the product.

Threads will not kill Twitter, but it is going to make a bigger dent than Bluesky and Mastodon did. Nothing is free and nothing is perfect. I know a lot of people are upset about Twitter. However, there are some people who got a voice through it. People stuck inside authoritarian countries had a way to send messages out to a global audience.

Here is my most bullish case for Threads: it might unite the “TikTok generation” that never joined Facebook or Twitter but had Instagram with the older people from Twitter who never joined TikTok. The Twitterers will stay if they get enough attention.

Thus, Threads might put a dent in TikTok, too. Zuckerberg is probably sophisticated enough to make a “TikTok person” feel engaged by sending them more food videos and less BLS update charts.

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Iterations of the Survivorship Bias Meme

If you are Online at all, you have probably seen the survivorship bias plane:

It has inspired new memes. They are funniest when posted without any explanation. Two recent examples are:

and

Sometimes the picture of the plane is used as a whole argument, without any words.

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Musk, Twitter, and Poison Pills

It has been all over the financial news that Elon Musk made an offer last week to buy out Twitter for $54.20 per share, which is well above its recent stock price. And also, that the board quickly stiff-armed Musk by adopting a “poison pill” provision. What are poison pills, are they a good thing, and how does this particular one work?

Major decisions for a corporation are made by its board of directors. In theory, they are supposed to direct operations for the benefit of the company’s shareholders, who are considered the actual owners of the corporation. The members of the board are elected by the shareholders in annual meetings.

In practice, the board largely does what it wants, and has an outsized influence on who gets elected. The board sets the agenda of the annual meetings, and proposes successor directors. In theory, shareholders can propose resolutions and alternative board candidates at an annual meeting, but it usually takes a determined effort by some activist shareholder group to actually push through some measure that is not approved by the existing board. The outside board members are often executives of other companies, and so are naturally attuned to the interests of the managerial class.  Thus, the members of this Old Boys (and Girls) Club tend to vote each other generous pay:  board members are typically paid very handsomely for what is often a fairly undemanding, part-time job.

Big corporate mergers and takeovers became a thing in the 1980’s. Some outside investor would make an offer to buy up company shares for more than the current market price. Often,  management would resist this offer, since it might entail them losing their cushy jobs. The delicate matter for management in such cases was to convince shareholders that rejecting the buyout offer was in their best long-term interest.

As in so many matters, “where you stand depends on where you sit.” Management would argue that “short-termism” is bad for the company and for the nation as a whole; the “corporate raiders” would just fire people, break up the company, and sell off the pieces, and generally create misery. The outside investors would reply that their new management would “unlock value” better than the current management was doing, by making operations more efficient and competitive and innovative.

A variety of measures might be implemented by the board to make it less attractive or less feasible for a change in control. The terms of the board of directors might be staggered, so that it would be impossible for the existing board to be totally changed out in less than say 3 years, even if someone controlled 100% of the shares. A company I was associated with in the 1990’s implemented a policy that provided for generous severance packages for upper employees in the event of change of control. (Again, management looking out for themselves).

The term “poison pill” typically refers to some measure that  targets share prices, in a way to discourage a hostile takeover. The most common form is the “flip-in” approach: 

A flip-in poison pill strategy involves allowing the shareholders, except for the acquirer, to purchase additional shares at a discount. Though purchasing additional shares provides shareholders with instantaneous profits, the practice dilutes the value of the limited number of shares already purchased by the acquiring company. This right to purchase is given to the shareholders before the takeover is finalized and is often triggered when the acquirer amasses a certain threshold percentage of shares of the target company.

This is what the Twitter board has pulled on Musk. If he acquires more than 15% of Twitter shares without board approval, the company will allow any shareholder (except Musk) to purchase additional shares at a 50% discount. Yes, this dilution would tend to lower the value of the shares, but if a lot of shareholders bought into this offer, his share of control would shrink. If he tried to buy yet more shares to get back to more than 15% ownership, the company would issue yet more discounted shares to everyone except him.

Is the Twitter board acting in their own interests, or the interests of the shareholders? Investment adviser Larry Black noted, “Let me point out something obvious: If Elon Musk takes Twitter private, the Twitter board members don’t have jobs any more, which pays them $250K-$300K per year for what is a nice part-time job. That could explain a lot.”

Musk hinted at a “Plan B”, and tweeted provocatively, “Love Me Tender”. He might be considering trying to bypass the board altogether and make a “tender offer” to the shareholders at large to sell their shares to him, at some attractive price. Typical conditions for such an offer would be that he only has to make good on his purchase offer if some large plurality of the shareholders take him up on it. It turns out that in practice this approach can be messy and complicated and delayed, probably not something the fast-moving Musk might have patience with. Also, even if he captured 100% of the shares, he could not replace all the existing board members for something like three years, so they could remain sitting there,  making anti-Musk decisions all along.

Musk’s offer has now put Twitter “in play” as a takeover target. You know that lots of wealthy people and entities are consulting their investment bankers about becoming a white (or black) knight here. Anyway, it makes for great theater. Popcorn, anyone?

Informational Diabetes

We all recognize that in the Internet Age, it is easy to communicate and to access information.

For the infovores, this is a cause for celebration.

Others worry that this leads to “information overload”, and to the spread of “disinformation” and “misinformation”. While this is clearly true, complaints about it typically seem to come from elites longing for the days when they had the only microphone, before the Revolt of the Public. Its hard to banish “misinformation” without screening out differences of opinion and correct contrarians even if you want to- and for some, such “collateral damage” would in fact be the main goal. But clearly something is wrong with the current information environment.

In a recent podcast appearance, Balaji Srinivasan used a metaphor I like better- Informational Diabetes:

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