Economist Writing Every Day

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia just released the first report on a new survey they are conducting quarterly. Some highlights:

Respondents in January 2024 were more positive about their income prospects than respondents a year earlier; one-third believed their income will increase, compared with 29 percent in January 2023

Younger, more affluent, male, or non-White respondents report a more positive outlook, compared with one year prior. Those who are older than 55 or earn less than $40,000 report notably negative changes in their personal outlook, compared with respondents in the same demographic segments surveyed a year ago

When asked about their ability to pay all of their bills in full this month, 23.5 percent of respondents in January 2024 indicated that they could not pay some or any of their bills; this was 1.5 percentage points higher than in January 2023 (22.0 percent) and the highest rate in the last five quarters

Overall, I’d say it shows an economy with mixed performance, but leaning more positive than negative.

It will be interesting to see if this ends up taking a place in the set of Fed surveys that are always driving economic discussions, like the Survey of Consumer Finances and the Survey of Professional Forecasters. If they keep it up and start putting out some graphics to summarize it, I think it will. My quick impression (not yet having spoken to Fed people about it) is that it will be the “quick hit” version of the Survey of Consumer Finances. It asks a smaller set of questions on somewhat similar topics, but is released quickly after each quarter instead of slowly after each year. If they stick with the survey it will get more useful over time, as there is more of a baseline to compare to.