The median voter wanted a younger candidate. The median voter appears to now have a younger candidate. The immediate result:
Polymarket doesn’t have it crossing over yet, but Biden at his nadir before dropping out was at 34%. Today shares of Harris winning are at 45%. Put in equity terms, a share of the Democrative candidate winning has increased 33% in a month on Polymarket.
Biden got the nomination and eventually won in 2020 by appealing to the median voter, even while pundits from his base whined. Harris will, if she wants to win, do much of the same. It will be interesting to see if the Republican candidate responds in kind, but its difficult to the see the dimensions on which they can depart from their candidate’s highly, ahem…specific brand.
Economist Writing Every Day 