Tariffs Are Not Smart Industrial Policy
This is where the political scientists, who often don’t understand the model in the first place, say ‘Ah ha!. Silly economists…’ They proceed to argue for tariffs on the grounds of national security and the need for emergency manufacturing capacity. But is an intellectual mistake.
How Good Were 2025 Forecasts?
Last January I shared a roundup of forecasts for the year from markets and professional economists. Were they any good? Here was their prediction for the US economy: WSJ’s survey of economists reports that inflation expectations for 2025 were around 2% before the election, but are closer to 3% now. Their economists expect GDP growth slowing to…
2025 in Data
By almost any measure, 2025 was a great year for the United States. Despite inflation remaining elevated and the damage from new tariffs, the economy did well. Inflation-adjusted median earnings are higher than a year ago, though only by about 1.3%. While most prices are still rising, one bright spot for affordability is that home…
Something went wrong. Please refresh the page and/or try again.
Economist Writing Every Day 