Last month I wrote about the projected decline in GDP from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model. Since then, they have released an alternative version of the model, which includes a “gold adjustment” to account for non-monetary gold inflows, which may be impacting the model to overstate the negative impact of imports (and it looks like this may be a permanent change to the model).
With those changes, and some more recent data, the GDPNow model is still pointing to a negative reading for Q1 of 2025, though only very slightly now: -0.1%.
It’s also worth noting that the New York Fed has a similar model, but one with very different estimates right now: about 2.6% for Q1.
We’ll still have to wait until April 30th to get the preliminary estimates from BEA.
Economist Writing Every Day 
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