Understanding Inflation and Interest Rates

Anyone who teaches Macroeconomics knows that these concepts are hard for people to understand at first.

A clip about inflation has been making the rounds.

Transcripts provided by CNN show the following

CNN NewsNight with Abby Phillip
Aired April 17, 2025 – 22:00 ET

ABBY PHILLIP, CNN ANCHOR

BATYA UNGAR-SARGON, AUTHOR, HOW THE ELITES BETRAYED AMERICA’S WORKING MEN AND WOMEN

CHARLOTTE HOWARD, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, THE ECONOMIST

PHILLIP: Jerome Powell is the head of the Fed and has a mandate to keep inflation low and employment high. So if there are, you know, macroeconomic things that are happening in the economy that make it very difficult for him to do that, you don’t think he’s going to comment?

UNGAR-SARGON: Do you know what would have really helped? What would be a really good idea right now to help bring down inflation and make sure that things keep running smoothly? It’s dropping interest rates. Why doesn’t he do that?

PHILLIP: Why doesn’t he do that?

HOWARD: So interest rates, if you were to drop interest rates, you would stoke inflation.

GPT expands on Howard’s point: “Dropping interest rates would not lower inflation—in fact, it typically makes inflation worse.

Interest rates are a key tool the Federal Reserve uses to manage inflation. When rates are lowered, it becomes cheaper to borrow money. This encourages people and businesses to take out loans, spend more, and invest more, which increases demand for goods and services.

But when demand rises faster than supply can keep up, prices go up—that’s inflation.

So, in a time of high inflation, cutting interest rates would likely make the problem worse, not better. The Fed raises interest rates to make borrowing more expensive, which slows down spending and cools demand, helping to bring inflation under control.”

Recall that the United States achieved disinflation starting in 2022, largely due to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes. Tyler calls the disinflation America’s triumph.

As for the commentariat, a diverse array of economists ranging from the Keynesian Paul Krugman to many conservative economists recognized that rate increases and disinflation were necessary and had to be done with promptness and fortitude. And so credibility reigned.

Research on Big Questions April 2025

I’m working on a new paper with Bart Wilson. We might have a draft to release soon.

  1. https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2023/03/25/discrepancy-in-views-about-music-pirating/  In that post, I pointed out that the estimates reported in journals for the effect of pirating on music revenues range from almost 0% to almost 100%. There is room for new empirical work. Not often is the range of the estimates that big.
  2. My coauthor Bart Wilson did an interesting podcast episode for the Curious Task in 2020.

https://thecurioustask.podbean.com/e/ep-64-bart-wilson-%e2%80%94-is-the-idea-of-property-universal/

Episode: Bart Wilson — Is The Idea of Property Universal? 

I’m providing a rough transcription of the part that stood out to me, because he identified a prime big unanswered question. This is around minute 7 of the episode.

Host: Why is [the Property Species] an interesting topic deserving of a book?

Bart Wilson: “So, I work with primatologists… and I would talk to them about what I’m working on with my laboratory experiments on property. They would say, ‘Oh yeah. Dolphins do that, too, or baboons. … scrub jays re-cache their food if another scrub jay is watching them so they are protecting themselves against theft… so property is all over the animal kingdom. And then I’m also working with my colleague in the English department. In the humanities, property is a very narrow thing, something Western European. It’s very modern. And, so, in one part of the academy property is this broadly natural phenomenon and in another part of the academy it’s very local: only some humans have it. And so, as a social scientist…”

Bart identified a gap in understanding. Property cannot be both common to all animals and rare among humans. In his book The Property Species he spans that gap by claiming (spoiler alert) that property is common to all humans and only humans. Human language is an important piece of that story. No other animal can wield complex symbolic language.

In our new paper (manuscript forthcoming) we’ll be investigating how humans use symbolic language to describe nonrivalrous digital resources.

Join Joy to discuss Artificial Intelligence in May 2025

Podcasts are emerging as one of the key mediums for getting expert timely opinions and news about artificial intelligence. For example, EconTalk (Russ Roberts) has featured some of the most famous voices in AI discourse:

EconTalk: Eliezer Yudkowsky on the Dangers of AI (2023)

EconTalk: Marc Andreessen on Why AI Will Save the World 

EconTalk: Reid Hoffman on Why AI Is Good for Humans

If you would like to engage in a discussion about these topics in May, please sign up for the session I am leading. It is free, but you do need to sign up for the Liberty Fund Portal.

The event consists of two weeks when you can do a discussion board style conversation asynchronously with other interested listeners and readers. Lastly, there is a zoom meeting to bring everyone together on May 21. You don’t have to do all three of the parts.

Further description for those who are interested:

Timeless: Artificial Intelligence: Doom or Bloom?

with Joy Buchanan

Time: May 5-9, 2025 and May 12-16, 2025

How will humans succeed (or survive) in the Age of AI? 

Russ Roberts brought the world’s leading thinkers about artificial intelligence to the EconTalk audience and was early to the trend. He hosted Nick Bostrom on Superintelligence in 2014, more than a decade before the world was shocked into thinking harder about AI after meeting ChatGPT. 

We will discuss the future of humanity by revisiting or discovering some of Robert’s best EconTalk podcasts on this topic and reading complementary texts. Participants can join in for part or all of the series. 

Week 1: May 5-9, 2025

An asynchronous discussion, with an emphasis on possible negative outcomes from AI, such as unemployment, social disengagement, and existential risk. Participants will be invited to suggest special topics for a separate session that will be held on Zoom on May 21, 2025, 2:00-3:30 pm EDT. 

Required Readings: EconTalk: Eliezer Yudkowsky on the Dangers of AI (2023)

EconTalk: Erik Hoel on the Threat to Humanity from AI (2023) with an EconTalk Extra Who’s Afraid of Artificial Intelligence? by Joy Buchanan

“Trurl’s Electronic Bard” (1965) by Stanisław Lem. 

In this prescient short story, a scientist builds a poetry-writing machine. Sound familiar? (If anyone participated in the Life and Fate reading club with Russ and Tyler, there are parallels between Lem’s work and Vasily Grossman’s “Life and Fate” (1959), as both emerged from Eastern European intellectual traditions during the Cold War.)

Optional Readings:Technological Singularity” by Vernor Vinge. Field Robotics Center, Carnegie Mellon U., 1993.

“‘I am Bing, and I Am Evil’: Microsoft’s new AI really does herald a global threat” by Erik Hoel. The Intrinsic Perspective Substack, February 16, 2023.

Situational Awareness” (2024) by Leopold Aschenbrenner 

Week 2: May 12-16, 2025

An asynchronous discussion, emphasizing the promise of AI as the next technological breakthrough that will make us richer.
Required Readings: EconTalk: Marc Andreessen on Why AI Will Save the World 

EconTalk: Reid Hoffman on Why AI Is Good for Humans

Optional Readings: EconTalk: Tyler Cowen on the Risks and Impact of Artificial Intelligence (2023)

ChatGPT Hallucinates Nonexistent Citations: Evidence from Economics” (2024) 

Joy Buchanan with Stephen Hill and Olga Shapoval. The American Economist, 69(1), 80-87.

What the Superintelligence can do for us (Joy Buchanan, 2024)

Dwarkesh Podcast “Tyler Cowen – Hayek, Keynes, & Smith on AI, Animal Spirits, Anarchy, & Growth

Week 3: May 21, 2025, 2:00-3:30 pm EDT (Zoom meeting)
Pre-registration is required, and we ask you to register only if you can be present for the entire session. Readings are available online. We will get to talk in the same zoom room!

Required Readings: Great Antidote podcast with Katherine Mangu-Ward on AI: Reality, Concerns, and Optimism

Additional readings will be added based partially on previous sessions’ participants’ suggestions

Optional Readings: Rediscovering David Hume’s Wisdom in the Age of AI (Joy Buchanan, EconLog, 2024)

Professor tailored AI tutor to physics course. Engagement doubled” The Harvard Gazette. 2024. 

Please email Joy if you have any trouble signing up for the virtual event.

Joy on Al Jazeera

An Al Jazeera talk show called The Steam asked me to join a discussion on fast fashion as the contrarian or as “the economist.” The found me because of the my article “Fast Fashion, Global Trade, and Sustainable Abundance” 

Episode website: https://www.aljazeera.com/program/the-stream/2025/3/25/trends-trash-and-truth-fast-fashion-phenomena

“Trends, trash and truth: Fast fashion phenomena”

The guests were

Venetia La Manna – fair fashion campaigner

Walden Lam – president and co-founder, Unspun

Katia Osei – lead researcher and bioengineer, Or Foundation

Joy Buchanan – associate professor, Samford University

I am a small part of the 25-minute show. You can hear me  from about minute 9:20 to 11:35 and then at the end from 23:30 to 24:45.

The points I made are that “fast” fashion has a good side for consumers, even though people are worried about the environmental impact of clothing waste. I got a few seconds to talk about my ideas for solutions which include labels about clothing durability and AI help with sorting. At the end I said that, as people become more aware of the downsides of fast fashion, we could stop putting social expectations on each other to wear a new outfit to every party and buy a custom shirt for every club event.

Reaction to Rux on Fertility

Blog reading types might have already seen “Fertility on demand” by Ruxandra Teslo.

My first reaction is that, at the current state of technology, I feel like wishing for more IVF on women is cruel. If someone you love has gone through it, you wouldn’t wish it on more people. Supporting the careers of women who want to have children while they are young seems preferable and lower cost to society. The problem is that supporting mothers is a tricky collective action problem, so we seem stuck with this.

“The egg freezing process is also expensive, costing between $8,000 to $15,000 per cycle. Fortunately, more and more women are being covered by insurance plans that offer free egg freezing. According to a 2021 survey, 20 percent of American companies with over 20,000 employees and 11 percent of smaller companies offer such benefits – an increase from six and five percent respectively in 2015. But most women still have to pay out of pocket.” $15,000 is sort of a lot. It’s cheaper than a year of paid maternity leave for a PhD student, but the total cost of a “medical baby to an older couple” is pretty high.

Some of the technology Rux described was new to me and encouraging. If babies and birth becomes much more medicalized (and civilization doesn’t end), then I could imagine a world where most couples look like Simone and Malcolm Collins by choice with designer babies on demand after having a carefree childfree decade.

“The main advantage of IVM is that it allows immature eggs to be collected instead of mature ones, which significantly reduces the burden of hormonal stimulation.” Exciting! Think of how far we’ve come with cancer treatments or treating AIDS. If enough research goes into this, then potentially the cutting, injecting, pill popping hell that women have to go through for IVF could become smaller and more focused on exactly what is near certain to work.

Someone’s going to come along and grumble and say nature is better, but recall from earlier: “Supporting the careers of women who want to have children while they are young seems preferable and lower cost to society. The problem is that… “

On an optimistic note, I am witnessing a beautiful success story of embryo adoption among my relatives. It worked. A wonderful couple has twins now, and those twins are experiencing love and contact from both their birth family and genetic parents. That technology only became available in the late ’90s. Expect more stories like this.

We might even be close to AI childcare that works. Imagine a daycare where robots do 100% of the food and cleaning work so that the humans in the room can focus exclusively on emotional and relational work with the kids. That could make daycare better or cheaper or both.

The simple technology of food and grocery delivery has already helped parents. The founder of Shipt, Bill Smith, got the idea for grocery delivery by experiencing how hard it is to do grocery shopping with his young children. Guess what? We don’t have to take toddlers to the grocery store anymore, unless we want to.

earlier thoughts: Awards for young talent are antinatalist

Information Regarding Russian Voting

Grok 3 beta (paid version) says this:

The Reality

  • Opposition: Genuine opposition is stifled. Prominent critics like Alexei Navalny (who died in prison in 2024) are barred from running, imprisoned, or sidelined. Parties like the Communist Party or LDPR exist but are often seen as “systemic opposition”—allowed to operate but not to seriously challenge the regime.
  • Media and Campaigning: State-controlled media heavily favors United Russia and Putin. Independent outlets face censorship, shutdowns, or exile (e.g., Meduza, TV Rain). Campaigning for opposition is restricted, with candidates disqualified on technicalities or facing harassment.
  • Voting Process: Reports of irregularities are common—ballot stuffing, coerced voting (especially among public sector workers), and inflated turnout figures. The Central Election Commission oversees it all, but it’s widely viewed as Kremlin-aligned. Electronic voting, introduced in recent years, has raised further transparency concerns.
  • Turnout and Results: Official turnout often hovers around 50-70%, though skepticism about these numbers persists. Putin’s 2024 victory, with 87% of the vote, came amid the Ukraine war and suppression of dissent, with no credible challengers.

Public Perception

Many Russians see elections as a formality—Putin’s approval, while fluctuating (per Levada Center polls, it dipped to 59% in 2018 but spiked to 80%+ after Crimea’s annexation), reflects a mix of genuine support, apathy, and resignation. Critics argue the system prioritizes stability over democracy; supporters say it’s what Russia needs given its history and external pressures.

Recent Example

The 2024 presidential election (March 15-17) was a case study: held over three days, including in occupied Ukrainian territories, with Navalny’s death fresh in memory. Three token candidates ran against Putin, none polling above single digits. Protests like “Noon Against Putin” (voters showing up at noon to signal dissent) were symbolic but powerless against the machine.

In short, Russian elections are predictable, heavily managed spectacles—less about choice, more about reinforcing the status quo. If you want specifics on a particular election or X posts about it, I can dig deeper. What angle are you curious about?

Click Read More to see the answer to my follow-up question “Explain coerced voting for public sector employees?”

Continue reading

How Americans Can Thank the World

Dear World,

Thank you for the heritage of philosophical and scientific ideas, preserved through an international effort over thousands of years. Thank you for coming to study at American universities in this century, and for staying to teach.

Thank you all for buying into our heroes. What is Star Wars without a global audience? Your enthusiasm transforms our characters into shared legends. Thank you for cheering on Harrison Ford and Will Smith. Thank you for feeling the joys and heartbreaks of Taylor Swift, Luke Combs and Beyoncé. Thank you for sending us Lord of the Rings, Howl’s Moving Castle, and Squid Game.

Video games unite us all. Thanks for Elden Ring from Japan, and Minecraft, which started in Sweden before it was acquired by Microsoft. It helps us be more creative when the world buys U.S.-made games like Call of Duty and Fortnite.

Merci France, for helping us in our war of independence and giving us the Statue of Liberty. (And for printing my cartoon.)

Thank you to England, for the inheritance of a system of limited government, whose principles of common law, parliamentary tradition, and constitutional rights became the foundation upon which we built our republic.

Thank you, world, for listening to our national anthem at the Olympics. For training with us and competing against us in feats of endurance and collectively celebrating as humans have recently broken so many records of performance. Congrats to Eliud Kipchoge and Katie Ledecky.

Thank you for believing in the American Dream. The wealth enjoyed by average Americans today would not be possible without globalization.

Thank you for seeing good in us and trusting our soldiers and businesses.

Thank you for trading with us. Thanks for keeping the modern F-150 truck affordable.  Quality is better today, because it’s more powerful with stronger engines and still gets better gas mileage while being safer. Part of what keeps the price down is getting so many component parts through imports from places like Mexico and Asia.

Thank you for sharing your genuine thoughts on our social media platforms. Thank you for making the World Wide Web worldwide, starting with http://info.cern.ch.

Thailand, thank you for welcoming my college friends who do not speak your language. You gave them a break from the monotony of their local landscapes. What would our Instagram be without you, and Iceland and Ecuador? The generosity with which you welcome travelers enriches not just our photo albums, but our perspectives.

We are who we are because of you.

EconTalk Extra on Erik Hoel

Sometimes a Russ Roberts podcast gets an “Extra” post following up on the topic. I wrote an Extra for the Erik Hoel on the Threat to Humanity from AI episode:

Who’s Afraid of Artificial Intelligence? is the title of my Extra

Hoel’s main argument is that if AI becomes more intelligent than humans, it could pose a serious threat. What if the AI agents start to treat humans the way we currently treat wild deer, not necessarily with malice but without much regard for the welfare of every human individual?

Things that are vastly more intelligent than you are really hard to understand and predict; and the wildlife next door, as much as we might like it, we will also build a parking lot over it at a heartbeat and they’ll never know why. 

Information Regarding Russia

2004: In September 2004, Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned while running against pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych. After a dinner meeting, Yushchenko fell severely ill and his face became dramatically disfigured with cysts and lesions (chloracne). Medical tests in Vienna confirmed extreme dioxin poisoning.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-43611547
The American liberal mind struggles to understand the difficulty of using elections under these conditions.

2018: “On March 4, 2018, British authorities say Russian agents poisoned Sergei Skripal—a former Russian military intelligence officer and U.K. double agent—and his daughter using a Novichok nerve agent…. With the immediate attack area isolated and the cleanup underway, the nation was shocked once again when two British nationals were poisoned by the same nerve agent nearly three months later in the neighboring town of Amesbury. One of the two, Dawn Sturgess, fell ill within 15 minutes of contact with the agent and died just over a week later. ” https://mwi.westpoint.edu/modern-day-nerve-agent-attack-military-lessons-salisbury/

If you get news from the internet and social media, be aware that some online participants are paid trolls from foreign governments.

Another pillar of this strategy involves botnets: swarms of fake, automated accounts created and controlled by Russian agents. These botnets hijack trending algorithms on social media platforms and thereby expose Western audiences to particular messages. They often share precisely worded posts to ensure that certain phrases—such as #WelcomeRefugees or #EndNetZero—trend in people’s news feeds. And they incessantly ‘like’ and repost content from pro-Kremlin influencers and trolls.

The aim here is twofold. First, it is an attempt to expand the reach of what would otherwise remain fringe opinions. They expose ever more people to Russian propaganda, and help create an illusion of popularity that serves to normalise pro-Kremlin talking points. But this is not merely intended to convert people into passionate Putinistas. The second goal is to promote the most inflammatory and divisive voices on either side of a given political issue. This helps spread the distrust and disillusionment that are so corrosive to liberal democratic society—and which have reached record levels on social media.

That is from https://quillette.com/2024/11/24/the-kremlins-bots-trolls-and-influencers-russia-disinformation/ , and if you would like a different news source then https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/30/europe/russian-disinformation-harris-walz-us-election-intl/index.html

Adam Smith and broadening horizons

Last week I had the honor of hosting Vernon Smith at Samford University and then being with him on his second day of the tour in Tuscaloosa, AL.

To introduce Vernon Smith’s new book about Adam Smith, I articulated a point that I had taken from reading Tyler Cowen’s GOAT book. Not all undergraduates have read Adam Smith, so I explained that Adam Smith was one of the first people to have a vision of a growing economy on a global scale. Afterward, I wondered if I had stated everything entirely correctly in my bold assertion. I went to consult with the source material via https://econgoat.ai/en/chat/gpt.

Joy: Does Tyler say that Adam Smith was one of the first people to imagine economic life on a globalized scale and how great the gains from trade could be?

EconGOAT GPT-4: Indeed, Tyler suggests that Adam Smith was one of the pioneering thinkers in envisioning economic life on a global scale and highlighting the immense gains from trade. In discussing Smith’s contributions, Tyler notes how Smith saw trade as a process by which nations could exchange their surplus or “superfluities” for goods they value more. While Smith didn’t quite articulate the theory of comparative advantage—later developed by Ricardo and Torrens—he was certainly heading in the right direction with his understanding of trade. This insight pointed towards a broader, more interconnected economic worldview that has since become central to economic theory (Chapter 8).

Tyler also gives Smith credit for recognizing issues with mercantilist views of trade, which often focused on stockpiling precious metals. Instead, Smith emphasized the expansion of consumption opportunities as the real benefit of trade, emphasizing its potential to enhance global prosperity. Smith’s multifaceted intellectual approach laid the groundwork for thinking about economies beyond just national borders, making him a key figure in the development of global economic thought.

Joy: When I think of a grand global vision prior to Smith, I think about religious leaders and military conquerors. Was Adam Smith the first to think of a grand global vision that fundamentally rests on individual freedom within a tolerant framework of laws and protections from harm?

EconGOAT GPT-4: Tyler acknowledges that Adam Smith played a pivotal role in developing the idea of economic globalization and the gains from trade. However, noting Smith as the absolute first might overlook other contributors. Before Smith, there were philosophers like the Scholastics and early mercantilists who considered economic ideas on a substantial, if not global, scale. The physiocrats, for example, were very much aware of how agriculture and trade could lead to prosperity for nations.

One could argue against Smith’s primacy by pointing out how people have always been aware of trade’s benefits, even if they didn’t articulate it quite as elegantly as Smith did. There’s historical evidence of trade routes as old as human civilization itself, such as the Silk Road or the trade networks of the Phoenicians. These early systems relied on a rudimentary understanding of economies of scale and specialization, even if they weren’t formalized.

Regarding your second point about religious leaders and conquerors, Smith’s vision indeed differs markedly. While others dreamt of unification through conquest or religious means, Smith’s framework empowered individuals to pursue their self-interest within a system of natural laws. This wasn’t just a vision of economic prosperity, but a moral and social vision as well. His “invisible hand” concept implies that individuals, left to their own devices within a safe legal framework, can contribute to the common good more efficiently than any central directive. This is highlighted in Chapter 8, where Tyler discusses Smith’s broader social and philosophical contributions. Smith’s ideas paved the way for modern market economies and significantly influence contemporary thought on economic freedom and globalization.

Joy: Would it be accurate to say that most people in Smith’s time had a very narrow view of the world, indeed hardly thinking beyond the borders of their own regions?

EconGOAT GPT-4: That’s a fair assessment. During Adam Smith’s time in the 18th century, most people indeed had a much narrower view of the world than we do today. Many individuals’ perspectives were limited to their immediate surroundings—villages, towns, or regions. The vastness of the globe, with its diverse cultures, economies, and possibilities for trade, wasn’t as accessible or imaginable to the everyday person as it is now.

Smith’s work in “The Wealth of Nations” was revolutionary in part because it broadened this horizon, not just for economists and policymakers but for anyone interested in economic activity. Smith’s ideas about the division of labor, specialization, and free markets opened up the concept of international trade as a means to prosperity beyond the local economy. His ability to foresee the potential for global interconnectedness in economies was ahead of his time.

I won’t excerpt our entire conversation. I eventually asked how to broaden one’s horizons.

EconGOAT GPT-4: While traveling Europe might seem like a grand adventure ripe for expanding one’s horizons (cue the “Eat, Pray, Love” montage), Adam Smith had reservations about the educational value of the “grand tour,” as it was then known. In Smith’s view, travel often led to “frivolous dissipation” rather than genuine intellectual or moral growth. Instead, he believed that real learning happened through competitive and commercial constraints—the kind you experience when you’re not just sightseeing but actively engaging with a community (Chapter 8).

That was when the bot made a genuinely funny joke about a silly modern book.