Reaction to Rux on Fertility

Blog reading types might have already seen “Fertility on demand” by Ruxandra Teslo.

My first reaction is that, at the current state of technology, I feel like wishing for more IVF on women is cruel. If someone you love has gone through it, you wouldn’t wish it on more people. Supporting the careers of women who want to have children while they are young seems preferable and lower cost to society. The problem is that supporting mothers is a tricky collective action problem, so we seem stuck with this.

“The egg freezing process is also expensive, costing between $8,000 to $15,000 per cycle. Fortunately, more and more women are being covered by insurance plans that offer free egg freezing. According to a 2021 survey, 20 percent of American companies with over 20,000 employees and 11 percent of smaller companies offer such benefits – an increase from six and five percent respectively in 2015. But most women still have to pay out of pocket.” $15,000 is sort of a lot. It’s cheaper than a year of paid maternity leave for a PhD student, but the total cost of a “medical baby to an older couple” is pretty high.

Some of the technology Rux described was new to me and encouraging. If babies and birth becomes much more medicalized (and civilization doesn’t end), then I could imagine a world where most couples look like Simone and Malcolm Collins by choice with designer babies on demand after having a carefree childfree decade.

“The main advantage of IVM is that it allows immature eggs to be collected instead of mature ones, which significantly reduces the burden of hormonal stimulation.” Exciting! Think of how far we’ve come with cancer treatments or treating AIDS. If enough research goes into this, then potentially the cutting, injecting, pill popping hell that women have to go through for IVF could become smaller and more focused on exactly what is near certain to work.

Someone’s going to come along and grumble and say nature is better, but recall from earlier: “Supporting the careers of women who want to have children while they are young seems preferable and lower cost to society. The problem is that… “

On an optimistic note, I am witnessing a beautiful success story of embryo adoption among my relatives. It worked. A wonderful couple has twins now, and those twins are experiencing love and contact from both their birth family and genetic parents. That technology only became available in the late ’90s. Expect more stories like this.

We might even be close to AI childcare that works. Imagine a daycare where robots do 100% of the food and cleaning work so that the humans in the room can focus exclusively on emotional and relational work with the kids. That could make daycare better or cheaper or both.

The simple technology of food and grocery delivery has already helped parents. The founder of Shipt, Bill Smith, got the idea for grocery delivery by experiencing how hard it is to do grocery shopping with his young children. Guess what? We don’t have to take toddlers to the grocery store anymore, unless we want to.

earlier thoughts: Awards for young talent are antinatalist

Information Regarding Russian Voting

Grok 3 beta (paid version) says this:

The Reality

  • Opposition: Genuine opposition is stifled. Prominent critics like Alexei Navalny (who died in prison in 2024) are barred from running, imprisoned, or sidelined. Parties like the Communist Party or LDPR exist but are often seen as “systemic opposition”—allowed to operate but not to seriously challenge the regime.
  • Media and Campaigning: State-controlled media heavily favors United Russia and Putin. Independent outlets face censorship, shutdowns, or exile (e.g., Meduza, TV Rain). Campaigning for opposition is restricted, with candidates disqualified on technicalities or facing harassment.
  • Voting Process: Reports of irregularities are common—ballot stuffing, coerced voting (especially among public sector workers), and inflated turnout figures. The Central Election Commission oversees it all, but it’s widely viewed as Kremlin-aligned. Electronic voting, introduced in recent years, has raised further transparency concerns.
  • Turnout and Results: Official turnout often hovers around 50-70%, though skepticism about these numbers persists. Putin’s 2024 victory, with 87% of the vote, came amid the Ukraine war and suppression of dissent, with no credible challengers.

Public Perception

Many Russians see elections as a formality—Putin’s approval, while fluctuating (per Levada Center polls, it dipped to 59% in 2018 but spiked to 80%+ after Crimea’s annexation), reflects a mix of genuine support, apathy, and resignation. Critics argue the system prioritizes stability over democracy; supporters say it’s what Russia needs given its history and external pressures.

Recent Example

The 2024 presidential election (March 15-17) was a case study: held over three days, including in occupied Ukrainian territories, with Navalny’s death fresh in memory. Three token candidates ran against Putin, none polling above single digits. Protests like “Noon Against Putin” (voters showing up at noon to signal dissent) were symbolic but powerless against the machine.

In short, Russian elections are predictable, heavily managed spectacles—less about choice, more about reinforcing the status quo. If you want specifics on a particular election or X posts about it, I can dig deeper. What angle are you curious about?

Click Read More to see the answer to my follow-up question “Explain coerced voting for public sector employees?”

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How Americans Can Thank the World

Dear World,

Thank you for the heritage of philosophical and scientific ideas, preserved through an international effort over thousands of years. Thank you for coming to study at American universities in this century, and for staying to teach.

Thank you all for buying into our heroes. What is Star Wars without a global audience? Your enthusiasm transforms our characters into shared legends. Thank you for cheering on Harrison Ford and Will Smith. Thank you for feeling the joys and heartbreaks of Taylor Swift, Luke Combs and Beyoncé. Thank you for sending us Lord of the Rings, Howl’s Moving Castle, and Squid Game.

Video games unite us all. Thanks for Elden Ring from Japan, and Minecraft, which started in Sweden before it was acquired by Microsoft. It helps us be more creative when the world buys U.S.-made games like Call of Duty and Fortnite.

Merci France, for helping us in our war of independence and giving us the Statue of Liberty. (And for printing my cartoon.)

Thank you to England, for the inheritance of a system of limited government, whose principles of common law, parliamentary tradition, and constitutional rights became the foundation upon which we built our republic.

Thank you, world, for listening to our national anthem at the Olympics. For training with us and competing against us in feats of endurance and collectively celebrating as humans have recently broken so many records of performance. Congrats to Eliud Kipchoge and Katie Ledecky.

Thank you for believing in the American Dream. The wealth enjoyed by average Americans today would not be possible without globalization.

Thank you for seeing good in us and trusting our soldiers and businesses.

Thank you for trading with us. Thanks for keeping the modern F-150 truck affordable.  Quality is better today, because it’s more powerful with stronger engines and still gets better gas mileage while being safer. Part of what keeps the price down is getting so many component parts through imports from places like Mexico and Asia.

Thank you for sharing your genuine thoughts on our social media platforms. Thank you for making the World Wide Web worldwide, starting with http://info.cern.ch.

Thailand, thank you for welcoming my college friends who do not speak your language. You gave them a break from the monotony of their local landscapes. What would our Instagram be without you, and Iceland and Ecuador? The generosity with which you welcome travelers enriches not just our photo albums, but our perspectives.

We are who we are because of you.

EconTalk Extra on Erik Hoel

Sometimes a Russ Roberts podcast gets an “Extra” post following up on the topic. I wrote an Extra for the Erik Hoel on the Threat to Humanity from AI episode:

Who’s Afraid of Artificial Intelligence? is the title of my Extra

Hoel’s main argument is that if AI becomes more intelligent than humans, it could pose a serious threat. What if the AI agents start to treat humans the way we currently treat wild deer, not necessarily with malice but without much regard for the welfare of every human individual?

Things that are vastly more intelligent than you are really hard to understand and predict; and the wildlife next door, as much as we might like it, we will also build a parking lot over it at a heartbeat and they’ll never know why. 

Information Regarding Russia

2004: In September 2004, Ukrainian presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned while running against pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych. After a dinner meeting, Yushchenko fell severely ill and his face became dramatically disfigured with cysts and lesions (chloracne). Medical tests in Vienna confirmed extreme dioxin poisoning.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-43611547
The American liberal mind struggles to understand the difficulty of using elections under these conditions.

2018: “On March 4, 2018, British authorities say Russian agents poisoned Sergei Skripal—a former Russian military intelligence officer and U.K. double agent—and his daughter using a Novichok nerve agent…. With the immediate attack area isolated and the cleanup underway, the nation was shocked once again when two British nationals were poisoned by the same nerve agent nearly three months later in the neighboring town of Amesbury. One of the two, Dawn Sturgess, fell ill within 15 minutes of contact with the agent and died just over a week later. ” https://mwi.westpoint.edu/modern-day-nerve-agent-attack-military-lessons-salisbury/

If you get news from the internet and social media, be aware that some online participants are paid trolls from foreign governments.

Another pillar of this strategy involves botnets: swarms of fake, automated accounts created and controlled by Russian agents. These botnets hijack trending algorithms on social media platforms and thereby expose Western audiences to particular messages. They often share precisely worded posts to ensure that certain phrases—such as #WelcomeRefugees or #EndNetZero—trend in people’s news feeds. And they incessantly ‘like’ and repost content from pro-Kremlin influencers and trolls.

The aim here is twofold. First, it is an attempt to expand the reach of what would otherwise remain fringe opinions. They expose ever more people to Russian propaganda, and help create an illusion of popularity that serves to normalise pro-Kremlin talking points. But this is not merely intended to convert people into passionate Putinistas. The second goal is to promote the most inflammatory and divisive voices on either side of a given political issue. This helps spread the distrust and disillusionment that are so corrosive to liberal democratic society—and which have reached record levels on social media.

That is from https://quillette.com/2024/11/24/the-kremlins-bots-trolls-and-influencers-russia-disinformation/ , and if you would like a different news source then https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/30/europe/russian-disinformation-harris-walz-us-election-intl/index.html

Adam Smith and broadening horizons

Last week I had the honor of hosting Vernon Smith at Samford University and then being with him on his second day of the tour in Tuscaloosa, AL.

To introduce Vernon Smith’s new book about Adam Smith, I articulated a point that I had taken from reading Tyler Cowen’s GOAT book. Not all undergraduates have read Adam Smith, so I explained that Adam Smith was one of the first people to have a vision of a growing economy on a global scale. Afterward, I wondered if I had stated everything entirely correctly in my bold assertion. I went to consult with the source material via https://econgoat.ai/en/chat/gpt.

Joy: Does Tyler say that Adam Smith was one of the first people to imagine economic life on a globalized scale and how great the gains from trade could be?

EconGOAT GPT-4: Indeed, Tyler suggests that Adam Smith was one of the pioneering thinkers in envisioning economic life on a global scale and highlighting the immense gains from trade. In discussing Smith’s contributions, Tyler notes how Smith saw trade as a process by which nations could exchange their surplus or “superfluities” for goods they value more. While Smith didn’t quite articulate the theory of comparative advantage—later developed by Ricardo and Torrens—he was certainly heading in the right direction with his understanding of trade. This insight pointed towards a broader, more interconnected economic worldview that has since become central to economic theory (Chapter 8).

Tyler also gives Smith credit for recognizing issues with mercantilist views of trade, which often focused on stockpiling precious metals. Instead, Smith emphasized the expansion of consumption opportunities as the real benefit of trade, emphasizing its potential to enhance global prosperity. Smith’s multifaceted intellectual approach laid the groundwork for thinking about economies beyond just national borders, making him a key figure in the development of global economic thought.

Joy: When I think of a grand global vision prior to Smith, I think about religious leaders and military conquerors. Was Adam Smith the first to think of a grand global vision that fundamentally rests on individual freedom within a tolerant framework of laws and protections from harm?

EconGOAT GPT-4: Tyler acknowledges that Adam Smith played a pivotal role in developing the idea of economic globalization and the gains from trade. However, noting Smith as the absolute first might overlook other contributors. Before Smith, there were philosophers like the Scholastics and early mercantilists who considered economic ideas on a substantial, if not global, scale. The physiocrats, for example, were very much aware of how agriculture and trade could lead to prosperity for nations.

One could argue against Smith’s primacy by pointing out how people have always been aware of trade’s benefits, even if they didn’t articulate it quite as elegantly as Smith did. There’s historical evidence of trade routes as old as human civilization itself, such as the Silk Road or the trade networks of the Phoenicians. These early systems relied on a rudimentary understanding of economies of scale and specialization, even if they weren’t formalized.

Regarding your second point about religious leaders and conquerors, Smith’s vision indeed differs markedly. While others dreamt of unification through conquest or religious means, Smith’s framework empowered individuals to pursue their self-interest within a system of natural laws. This wasn’t just a vision of economic prosperity, but a moral and social vision as well. His “invisible hand” concept implies that individuals, left to their own devices within a safe legal framework, can contribute to the common good more efficiently than any central directive. This is highlighted in Chapter 8, where Tyler discusses Smith’s broader social and philosophical contributions. Smith’s ideas paved the way for modern market economies and significantly influence contemporary thought on economic freedom and globalization.

Joy: Would it be accurate to say that most people in Smith’s time had a very narrow view of the world, indeed hardly thinking beyond the borders of their own regions?

EconGOAT GPT-4: That’s a fair assessment. During Adam Smith’s time in the 18th century, most people indeed had a much narrower view of the world than we do today. Many individuals’ perspectives were limited to their immediate surroundings—villages, towns, or regions. The vastness of the globe, with its diverse cultures, economies, and possibilities for trade, wasn’t as accessible or imaginable to the everyday person as it is now.

Smith’s work in “The Wealth of Nations” was revolutionary in part because it broadened this horizon, not just for economists and policymakers but for anyone interested in economic activity. Smith’s ideas about the division of labor, specialization, and free markets opened up the concept of international trade as a means to prosperity beyond the local economy. His ability to foresee the potential for global interconnectedness in economies was ahead of his time.

I won’t excerpt our entire conversation. I eventually asked how to broaden one’s horizons.

EconGOAT GPT-4: While traveling Europe might seem like a grand adventure ripe for expanding one’s horizons (cue the “Eat, Pray, Love” montage), Adam Smith had reservations about the educational value of the “grand tour,” as it was then known. In Smith’s view, travel often led to “frivolous dissipation” rather than genuine intellectual or moral growth. Instead, he believed that real learning happened through competitive and commercial constraints—the kind you experience when you’re not just sightseeing but actively engaging with a community (Chapter 8).

That was when the bot made a genuinely funny joke about a silly modern book.

Telling Stories at the Campfire

This week has been busy with the enjoyable task of hosting a distinguished economist in Alabama. I can only briefly follow up on my campfire post. (Yes, this is apropos of everything.)

I do not usually use LLMs to write even part of my posts but since I am pressed for time, I will just take this as a chance to assess Claude. I pay for Claude and Grok, currently. Both of those subscriptions resulted from a particular moment when I thought I could get a particular task done with them and was in a hurry. If I could do it all over again, I would undo those subs, I think, and go more in on the OpenAI Pro products.

Prompt: Finger wagging is surprisingly ineffective; telling a compelling story is surprisingly effective. Can you expand that out into a paragraph for a blog?

Claude response: The art of persuasion often defies our intuitive assumptions. While many of us default to stern lectures and admonishing fingers when trying to change minds, research consistently shows this approach tends to backfire, causing people to become defensive and dig deeper into their existing beliefs. What proves remarkably more effective is the simple act of storytelling. When we encounter a compelling narrative, our brains react differently than they do to facts and figures alone – we become emotionally invested, our neural patterns sync with the story’s flow, and we naturally lower our defensive barriers. Stories create a shared experience that bridges ideological divides, allowing new ideas to take root not through force, but through the gentle power of narrative empathy. This explains why parables and fables have been humanity’s preferred teaching tools for millennia, while memories of being lectured rarely inspire lasting change.

Claude is always a little too verbose, in my opinion. Still, the logic and grammar are good. The machines can write.

I might write more soon about how AI’s used narrative to influence humans in the novel The Diamond Age.

Using Taylor Swift to teach about Adam Smith

It’s a niche thing, but Art Carden and I wrote a collection of Taylor Swift/Adam Smith essays. I’m going to use some for teaching this semester, so I wanted to post this in case it’s useful for other teachers.

In introductory economics courses, students often encounter Adam Smith as a one-dimensional figure – the patron saint of self-interest who wrote about the “invisible hand” of the market. But Smith was a far more nuanced thinker, and his insights about human nature remain relevant today. The challenge is making these complex ideas accessible to modern undergraduates.

That’s where this comes in as a teaching aid. Through three recent articles examining Swift’s very public decisions and artistic output, we can introduce students to Smith’s key ideas in a way that feels immediately relevant and engaging. From Swift’s struggles with public perception in “Anti-Hero” to the economic implications of her homemade cinnamon rolls, these pieces provide concrete, contemporary examples that illuminate Smith’s dual role as both moral philosopher and economic thinker. Many undergraduates are already familiar with Swift’s music and public persona, providing an accessible entry point to Smith’s more abstract concepts.

Here’s the recommended order to introduce our articles and a blurb on what you can learn (seriously).

Anti-Hero as a Smithian Anthem” – This article introduces Smith’s foundational concept of the impartial spectator and his sophisticated view of human nature through a contemporary example. The article demonstrates that Smith wasn’t just an economist but a moral philosopher who understood how deeply humans care about others’ perceptions of them, showing students that economics isn’t just about money.

Taylor Swift & The World’s Most Expensive Cinnamon Rolls” – This piece provides a bridge between Smith’s moral philosophy and his economic thinking, using opportunity cost analysis while simultaneously showing how rational economic actors might “inefficiently” spend time on activities that build social bonds. The article illustrates how Smith’s ideas about sympathy and social connection exist alongside, not in opposition to, his economic insights about specialization and efficiency.

Would Adam Smith Tell Taylor Swift to Attend the Super Bowl?” – This article builds on the previous readings to explore the full complexity of Smith’s thought, showing how his ideas from both The Theory of Moral Sentiments and The Wealth of Nations can be applied to analyze real-world decisions.

What we hear at the campfire

A recent scout campout got me thinking about who gets an audience. A small group was sitting around a campfire silently. Eventually the person who piped up and sapped our attention was 9 years old, with all the maturity expected thereof. Who is to blame for the low quality of discourse that night? I didn’t expend any energy to make good use of that time. I could have taught those kids something, if I had told an engaging story or introduced a clever joke. It would have taken energy to communicate something important in a way that they would want to listen to it.

We have a limited number of minutes to pay attention to the world and we use few of them productively. There is a metaphorical campfire every night, after the work of subsistence is over. Who speaks up? Who gets an audience? When a journalist is doing their best to cover an important issue or sound an alarm, how many people bother to click or get a paid subscription?

I regularly see people complain that journalists or the media are doing it wrong. “Why didn’t the NYT cover X?” Jeremy regularly points out that the NYT did cover X, but not many people clicked.

Ship hijackings on the other side of the world aren’t very fun to read about. What really got clicks this past week was Melania’s hat.

Most of the handwringing over what the media should do is deflecting blame from what we should be doing, which is paying for good journalism and engaging in the boring/important news.

Even before LLMs, for decades, there has been no shortage of great serious writers and text could be shared at very low cost online. The bottleneck is the audience. Good readers are more scarce than writers.

The Chair on Netflix

The Chair on Netflix is entertaining and I’d recommend it to EWED readers.

Plot, via Wikipedia: Professor Ji-Yoon Kim is the newly appointed chair of the English department at Pembroke University. The first woman chosen for the position, she attempts to ensure the tenure of a young black colleague, negotiate her relationship with her crush, friend, and well-known colleague Bill Dobson, and parent her strong-willed adopted daughter.

Something I like about the writing is that there is genuine suspense. Going into the last episode, I didn’t know what would happen with the romance or the threat of job dismissals.

The show is funny, occasionally. If you are looking for something easy to watch in 30-minute episodes at the end of the day that won’t leave you too upset, this will work.

Some of the issues they raise deserve serious treatment, but the serious treatment will not be found in The Chair. It’s for Netflix, with binge watching potential. Without offering any spoilers, I’d say they supply the kind of ending that viewers want. You need not overthink it.

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