After the Fall: What Next for Nvidia and AI, In the Light of DeepSeek

Anyone not living under a rock the last two weeks has heard of DeepSeek, the cheap Chinese knock-off of ChatGPT that was supposedly trained using much lower resources that most American Artificial Intelligence efforts have been using. The bearish narrative flowing from this is that AI users will be able to get along with far fewer of Nvidia’s expensive, powerful chips, and so Nvidia sales and profit margins will sag.

The stock market seems to be agreeing with this story. The Nvidia share price crashed with a mighty crash last Monday, and it has continued to trend downward since then, with plenty of zig-zags.

I am not an expert in this area, but have done a bit of reading. There seems to be an emerging consensus that DeepSeek got to where it got to largely by using what was already developed by ChatGPT and similar prior models. For this and other reasons, the claim for fantastic savings in model training has been largely discounted. DeepSeek did do a nice job making use of limited chip resources, but those advances will be incorporated into everyone else’s models now.

Concerns remain regarding built-in bias and censorship to support the Chinese communist government’s point of view, and regarding the safety of user data kept on servers in China. Even apart from nefarious purposes for collecting user data, ChatGPT has apparently been very sloppy in protecting user information:

Wiz Research has identified a publicly accessible ClickHouse database belonging to DeepSeek, which allows full control over database operations, including the ability to access internal data. The exposure includes over a million lines of log streams containing chat history, secret keys, backend details, and other highly sensitive information.

Shifting focus to Nvidia – – my take is that DeepSeek will have little impact on its sales. The bullish narrative is that the more efficient algos developed by DeepSeek will enable more players to enter the AI arena.

The big power users like Meta and Amazon and Google have moved beyond limited chatbots like ChatGPT or DeepSeek. They are aiming beyond “AI” to “AGI” (Artificial General Intelligence), that matches or surpasses human cognitive capabilities across a wide range of cognitive tasks. Zuck plans to replace mid-level software engineers at Meta with code-bots before the year is out.

For AGI they will still need gobs of high-end chips, and these companies show no signs of throttling back their efforts. Nvidia remains sold out through the end of 2025. I suspect that when the company reports earnings on Feb 26, it will continue to demonstrate high profits and project high earnings growth.

Its price to earnings is higher than its peers, but that appears to be justified by its earnings growth. For a growth stock, a key metric is price/earnings-growth (PEG), and by that standard, Nvidia looks downright cheap:

Source: Marc Gerstein on Seeking Alpha

How the fickle market will react to these realities, I have no idea.

The high volatility in the stock makes for high options premiums. I have been selling puts and covered calls to capture roughly 20% yields, at the expense of missing out on any rise in share price from here.

Disclaimer: Nothing here should be considered as advice to buy or sell any security.

DeepSeek vs. ChatGPT: Has China Suddenly Caught or Surpassed the U.S. in AI?

The biggest single-day decline in stock market history occurred yesterday, as Nvidia plunged 17% to shave $589 billion off the AI chipmaker’s market cap. The cause of the panic was the surprisingly good performance of DeepSeek, a new Chinese AI application similar to ChatGPT.

Those who have tested DeepSeek find it to perform about as well as the best American AI models, with lower consumption of computer resources. It is also available much cheaper. What really stunned the tech world is that the developers claimed to have trained the model for only about six million dollars, which is way, way less than the billions that a large U.S. firm like OpenAI, Google, or Meta would spend on a leading AI model. All this despite the attempts by the U.S. to deny China the most advanced Nvidia chips. The developers of DeepSeek claim they worked with a modest number of chips, models with deliberately curtailed capacities which met U.S. export allowances.

One conclusion, drawn by the Nvidia bears, is that this shows you *don’t* need ever more of the most powerful and expensive chips to get good development done. The U.S. AI development model has been to build more, huge, power-hungry data centers and fill them up with the latest Nvidia chips. That has allowed Nvidia to charge huge profit premiums, as Google and other big tech companies slurp up all the chips that Nvidia can produce. If that supply/demand paradigm breaks, Nvidia’s profits could easily drop in half, e.g., from 60+% gross margins to a more normal (but still great) 30% margin.

The Nvidia bulls, on the other hand, claim that more efficient models will lead to even more usage of AI, and thus increase the demand for computing hardware – – a cyber instance of Jevons’ Paradox (where the increase in the efficiency of steam engines in burning coal led to more, not less, coal consumption, because it made steam engines more ubiquitous).

I read a bunch of articles to try to sort out hype from fact here. Folks who have tested DeepSeek find it to be as good as ChatGPT, and occasionally better. It can explain its reasoning explicitly, which can be helpful. It is open source, which I think means the code or at least the “weights” have been published. It does seem to be unusually efficient. Westerners have downloaded it onto (powerful) PCs and have run it there successfully, if a bit slowly. This means you can embed it in your own specialized code, or do your AI apart from the prying eyes of ChatGPT or other U.S. AI providers. In contrast, ChatGPT I think can only be run on a powerful remote server.

Unsurprisingly, in the past two weeks DeepSeek has been the most-uploaded free app, surpassing ChatGPT.

It turns out that being starved of computing power led the Chinese team to think their way to several important innovations that make much better use of computing. See here and here for gentle technical discussions of how they did that. Some of it involved hardware-ish things like improved memory management. Another key factor is they figured out a way to only do training on data which is relevant to the training query, instead of training each time on the entire universe of text.

A number of experts scoff at the claimed six million dollar figure for training, noting that if you include all the costs that were surely involved in the development cycle, it can’t be less than hundreds of millions of dollars. That said, it was still appreciably cheaper than the usual American way. Furthermore, it seems quite likely that making use of answers generated by ChatGPT helped DeepSeek to rapidly emulate ChatGPT’s performance. It is one thing to catch up to ChatGPT; it may be tougher to surpass it. Also, presumably the compute-efficient tricks devised by the DeepSeek team will now be applied in the West, as well. And there is speculation that DeepSeek actually has use of thousands of the advanced Nvidia chips, but they hide that fact since it involved end-running U.S. export restrictions. If so, then their accomplishment would be less amazing.

What happens now? I wish I knew. (I sold some Nvidia stock today, only to buy it back when it started to recover in after-hours trading). DeepSeek has Chinese censorship built into it. If you use DeepSeek, your information gets stored on servers in China, the better to serve the purposes of the government there.

Ironically, before this DeepSeek story broke, I was planning to write a post here this week pondering the business case for AI. For all the breathless hype about how AI will transform everything, it seems little money has been made except for Nvidia. Nvidia has been selling picks and shovels to the gold miners, but the gold miners themselves seem to have little to show for the billions and billions of dollars they are pouring into AI. A problem may be that there is not much of a moat here – – if lots of different tech groups can readily cobble together decent AI models, who will pay money to use them? Already, it is being given away for free in many cases. We shall see…

Free Webinar, Jan. 25: Practical and Ethical Aspects of Future Artificial Intelligence

As most of us know, artificial intelligence (AI) has taken big steps forward in the past few years, with the advent of Large Language Models (LLM) like ChatGPT. With these programs, you can enter a query in plain language, and get a lengthy response in human-like prose. You can have ChatGPT write a computer program or a whole essay for you (which of course makes it challenging for professors to evaluate essays handed in by their students).

However, the lords of Big Tech are not content. Their goal is to create AI with powers that far surpass human intelligence, and that even mimics human empathy. This raises a number of questions:

Is this technically possible? What will be the consequences if some corporations or nations succeed in owning such powerful systems? Will the computers push us bumbling humans out of the way? Will this be a tool for liberation or for oppression? This new technology coming at us may affect us all in unexpected ways. 

For those who are interested, there will be a 75-minute webinar on Saturday, January 25 which addresses these issues, and offers a perspective by two women who are leaders in the AI field (see bios below). They will explore the ethical and practical aspects of AI of the future, from within a Christian tradition. The webinar is free, but requires pre-registration:

Here are bios of the two speakers:

Joanna Ng is a former IBM-er, pivoted to a start-up founder, focusing on Artificial Intelligence, specialized in Augmented Cognition, by integrating with IoT and Blockchain, in the context of web3, by applying design-thinking methodology. With forty-nine patents granted to her name, Joanna was accredited as an IBM Master Inventor. She held a seven-year tenure as the Head of Research, Director of the Center for Advanced Studies, IBM Canada. She has published over twenty peer-reviewed academic publications and co-authored two computer science books with Springer, The Smart Internet, and The Personal Web. She published a Christianity Today article called “How Artificial Intelligence Is Today’s Tower of Babel” and published her first book on faith and discipleship in October 2022, titled Being Christian 2.0.

Rosalind Picard is founder and director of the Affective Computing Research Group at the MIT Media Laboratory; co-founder of Affectiva, which provides Emotion AI; and co-founder and chief scientist of Empatica, which provides the first FDA-cleared smartwatch to detect seizures. Picard is author of over three hundred peer-reviewed articles spanning AI, affective computing, and medicine. She is known internationally for writing the book, Affective Computing, which helped launch the field by that name, and she is a popular speaker, with a TED talk receiving ~1.9 million views. Picard is a fellow of the IEEE and the AAAC, and a member of the National Academy of Engineering. She holds a Bachelors in Electrical Engineering from Georgia Tech and a Masters and Doctorate, each in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, from MIT. Picard leads a team of researchers developing AI/machine learning and analytics to advance basic science as well as to improve human health and well-being, and has served as MIT’s faculty chair of their MindHandHeart well-being initiative.

Study Shows AI Can Enable Information-Stealing (Phishing) Campaigns

As a computer user, I make a modest effort to stay informed regarding the latest maneuvers by the bad guys to steal information and money. I am on a mailing list for the Malwarebytes blog, which publishes maybe three or four stories a week in this arena.

Here are three stories from the latest Malwarebytes email:

 ( 1 )   AI-supported spear phishing fools more than 50% of targets A controlled study reveals that 54% of users were tricked by AI-supported spear phishing emails, compared to just 12% who were targeted by traditional, human-crafted ones. ( 2 )  Dental group lied through teeth about data breach, fined $350,000 Westend Dental denied a 2020 ransomware attack and associated data breach, telling its customers that their data was lost due to an “accidentally formatted hard drive”. The company agreed to pay $350,000 to settle HIPAA violations ( 3 ) “Can you try a game I made?” Fake game sites lead to information stealers Victims lured to a fake game website where they were met with an information stealer instead of the promised game.

The first item here fits with our interest in the promise and perils of AI, so I will paste a couple of self-explanatory excerpts in italics:

One of the first things everyone predicted when artificial intelligence (AI) became more commonplace was that it would assist cybercriminals in making their phishing campaigns more effective.

Now, researchers have conducted a scientific study into the effectiveness of AI supported spear phishing, and the results line up with everyone’s expectations: AI is making it easier to do crimes.

The study, titled Evaluating Large Language Models’ Capability to Launch Fully Automated Spear Phishing Campaigns: Validated on Human Subjects, evaluates the capability of large language models (LLMs) to conduct personalized phishing attacks and compares their performance with human experts and AI models from last year.

To this end the researchers developed and tested an AI-powered tool to automate spear phishing campaigns. They used AI agents based on GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet to search the web for available information on a target and use this for highly personalized phishing messages.

With these tools, the researchers achieved a click-through rate (CTR) that marketing departments can only dream of, at 54%. The control group received arbitrary phishing emails and achieved a CTR of 12% (roughly 1 in 8 people clicked the link).

Another group was tested against an email generated by human experts which proved to be just as effective as the fully AI automated emails and got a 54% CTR. But the human experts did this at 30 times the cost of the AI automated tools.

…The key to the success of a phishing email is the level of personalization that can be achieved by the AI assisted method and the base for that personalization can be provided by an AI web-browsing agent that crawls publicly available information.

Based on information found online about the target, they are invited to participate in a project that aligns with their interest and presented with a link to a site where they can find more details.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

But there is good news as well. We can use AI to fight AI: … LLMs are also getting better at recognizing phishing emails. Claude 3.5 Sonnet scored well above 90% with only a few false alarms and detected several emails that passed human detection. Although it struggles with some phishing emails that are clearly suspicious to most humans.

In addition, the blog article cited some hard evidence for year-over-year progress in AI capabilities: a year ago, unassisted AI was unable to match the phishing performance of human-generated phishing messages. But now, AI can match and even slightly exceed the effectiveness of human phishing. This is….progress, I guess.

P.S. I’d feel remiss if I did not remind us all yet again, it’s safest to never click on a link embedded in an email message, if you can avoid it. If the email purports to be from a company, it’s safest to go directly to the company’s website and do your business there.

Beware the Impactful Gastro-Intestinal “Norovirus”

This is about something unpleasant which I never heard of before this month, but I am sharing in case readers may benefit from a bit of intel here.

In a family I know with two kids under five, it started with the youngest child after he was likely exposed to unclean water. He vomited once, and then was apparently fine. I may be a bit fuzzy on the timeline, but I think it was the next day that the father came down with symptoms. Besides violent emptying of the GI tract from both ends, he was flat in bed for over 24 hours, hardly able to move. This was initially blamed on food poisoning from a restaurant seafood meal, but by the following day, the mom was feeling weak and shortly succumbed, with similar effects.

A woman went over to help this family. She wore a N-95 type mask and washed her hands diligently. Within a few days, the full symptoms suddenly overtook her, as well.  But her husband never got it.  The older child in the original family seemed to have escaped, but a couple of days later he came down with similar symptoms, which lasted off and on for several days.

Most likely the culprit here was the “norovirus”. The virus is named after the city of Norwalk, Ohio, where an outbreak occurred in 1968. It bears the charming nickname, “the winter vomiting disease.” Although the effects of the virus are very unpleasant, fortunately they usually last only a couple of days, with full recovery being the norm.  The sufferer should acquire immunity to that strain of the virus for six months to two years. Some people may escape becoming symptomatic, based on the bacterial populations in their gut biome.

Since this is an economics blog, here are some quick stats. In the U.S. the norovirus is estimated to cause about 20 million illnesses a year and about half of all foodborne disease outbreaks. Norovirus causes some 900 deaths and 100,000 hospitalizations annually, mostly among adults aged 65 and older. It also leads to nearly 500,000 emergency department visits, mostly involving young children.

 A model of the worldwide economic burden of the disease found:

Globally, norovirus resulted in a total of $4.2 billion (95% UI: $3.2–5.7 billion) in direct health system costs and $60.3 billion (95% UI: $44.4–83.4 billion) in societal costs per year. Disease amongst children <5 years cost society $39.8 billion, compared to $20.4 billion for all other age groups combined. Costs per norovirus illness varied by both region and age and was highest among adults ≥55 years. Productivity losses represented 84–99% of total costs varying by region. While low and middle income countries and high income countries had similar disease incidence (10,148 vs. 9,935 illness per 100,000 persons), high income countries generated 62% of global health system costs.

Once it shows up in a family, it is hard to avoid. A reason is that you can be sickened by exposure to as few as ten viral particles, compared to billions that are expelled in a bodily fluid incidents. A doctor reported:

She once acquired a norovirus infection by simply using the same bathroom that had been used earlier in the day by a visiting in-law who was recovering from a recent bout with the stomach bug.  That’s because “people who have norovirus can shed the virus for up to two weeks after their symptoms are gone.”

In another case, a diner in a restaurant vomited on the floor. The mess was quickly cleaned up by staff, and other diners continued eating. In the next few days, 90% of the people at the same table as the sick person fell ill, along with 70% of the diners at an adjacent table, and 25% of the folks at a table across the room.

OK, that’s the bad news. How can we fight back? Lengthy handwashing with soap should help, along with quarantining as much as possible. It turns out that alcohol is not very good at killing this bug, so the usual hand sanitizers may be ineffective.  Better results can be had cleaning surfaces with a bleach-water solution.

The main care needed is hydration. From what I have read, most Gatorade-type sports drinks do provide needed electrolytes (e.g., sodium and potassium), but probably have more sugar that is optimal for this situation. Gatorade Zero has sucralose in place of sugar, if you are OK with that. Pedialyte is designed for rehydration after diarrhea, and has less sugar and more electrolytes than Gatorade. Avoid “Gatorade Water” – it is just water, with the tiniest “infusion” of sodium and potassium.

If you find yourself stricken, it is reportedly wise to have a wastebasket or other receptable at hand in the bathroom, in case you face urgent activity from both ends at once (trying to word this delicately).

Fun fact I learned researching this topic: if the GI tract has been emptied, best avoid dairy for 48 hours after symptoms stop. That allows lactose in the gut to build back up again.

I have never gone on an extended cruise, partly because I don’t think I could resist the frequent offerings of desserts and snacks. But reading of norovirus outbreaks on cruise ships has given me another reason to stay on terra firma.

Red Lobster Out of Bankruptcy Proceedings, Set Up to Be Plundered Again by Private Equity

Red Lobster is a large, historic seafood restaurant chain operating in the U.S. and Canada. Last summer I wrote on how it got driven into bankruptcy: How an All-U-Can-Eat Special Driven by a Controlling Investor Pushed Red Lobster Over the Edge

Red Lobster used to be a pretty profitable business. Then in 2014 its owners sold it to a private equity firm called Golden Gate Capital. This private equity firm promptly plundered Red Lobster by selling its real estate out from under it, with those funds going to the PE firm. Instead of owning their own land and buildings, now the restaurants had to pay rent to landlords.  This put a permanent hurt on the restaurant chain’s profits. I don’t know this as fact, but because it is part of the usual PE playbook, I assume that the PE firm also made Red Lobster issue debt (bonds) so the PE firm could further plunder Red Lobster by having it pay “dividends” to its PE firm owners, using the money raised by issuing the bonds. After this glorious financial engineering, the private equity firm in 2019 sold a 49% stake to a company called Thai Union. Thai Union bought out the rest of Red Lobster ownership from Golden Gate in 2020.

Thai Union did a poor job managing the U.S. based restaurant chain, forcing cost-cutting measures that were counterproductive, and finally forcing a continual all-you-can-eat shrimp special, against the better judgment of on-the-ground Red Lobster management. That shrimp special made Red Lobster buy a lot of Thai Union’s shrimp, but led to large losses last year. The business had been suffering for a couple of years, with Covid shutdowns and competition from nimbler eateries, but the losses from the shrimp special sent it scurrying for bankruptcy protection back in May.

There are two main flavors of business bankruptcy. The direst form is Chapter 7, where the assets of the firm are sold off to meet obligations to creditors, and the firm goes out of business.

The more common form is Chapter 11, where the intent is to keep the business going (see Appendix). Somebody gets stiffed in the process, of course. Usually, common shareholders get almost nothing except maybe a reduced number of shares in the reorganized company. Preferred shareholders often get a few more shares. Unsecured bondholders may get 30-40 cents on the dollar as a settlement, or a reduced amount of bonds in the new company, or maybe stock shares. Sometimes the company will issue a new set of bonds which are “senior” to the old bonds, which reduces the value of old bonds. Other unsecured creditors like vendors may get something like 50 cents on the dollar.  

Secured creditors are higher up in the pecking order, and so often get higher recoveries. (The “covenant” for a bond or loan would specify if the loan is secured by, say, the value of the equipment in the restaurant).

Red Lobster restaurants have kept operating this year (2024), while creditors were kept at bay via the protection offered by the bankruptcy filing. As of September, Red Lobster emerged from the chapter 11 bankruptcy. A private equity group has taken over operations. They have injected some $60 million cash, which is actually not very much for this situation.

I was curious about what happened to Red Lobster’s creditors, such as vendors and bond holders. A first-level internet search, even with AI help, did not tell me how they fared as part of the settlement. I had read earlier this year that Red Lobster had something like $ 1 billion in debt, so I assume that a lot of bondholders got stiffed in this process.

In May the company announced that it had “ voluntarily filed for relief under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Middle District of Florida. The Company intends to use the proceedings to drive operational improvements, simplify the business through a reduction in locations, and pursue a sale of substantially all of its assets as a going concern…Red Lobster’s restaurants will remain open and operating as usual during the Chapter 11 process, continuing to be the world’s largest and most-loved seafood restaurant company. The Company has been working with vendors to ensure that operations are unaffected and has received a $100 million debtor-in-possession (“DIP”) financing commitment from its existing lenders.”

The “working with vendors” is an important piece here. When I peered at the official Red Lobster court bankruptcy website to try to glean more intel on the fate of the creditors, there was a list of leading “Unsecured Creditors”. These included Pepsico (supplying beverages) and Gordon Food Services, a major Canadian food supplier, as well as the owner of the store properties (Realty Income Corporation), which was presumably owed a lot of unpaid back rent.

Ironically, after one private equity firm plundered Red Lobster, then sold it to the hapless Thai Union (which ended up taking a $540 million write-down on their investment), the restaurant chain is now in the hands of yet another PE firm. I could not find definite information on the deal, but again we may assume that the PE firm got the creditors (bondholders, vendors, etc.) to accept “haircuts” on what they were owed, as opposed to getting almost nothing if Red Lobster went Chapter 7 and shut down. Thus, the new PE firm will start off with a relatively virgin company to plunder again.

My Brave AI search agrees with that assessment:

The company’s restructuring efforts may prioritize the interests of new investors and creditors over those of existing bondholders, potentially resulting in a less favorable outcome for bondholders… It is likely that the bondholders will be subject to a restructuring plan that may involve debt forgiveness, debt-for-equity swaps, or other arrangements that could result in a loss of principal or interest for the bondholders.

Side comment: If you, too, want to feed at the trough of private equity, there are a number of PE firms you can buy stock shares in so you can join in their profits. See 50% Endowment Returns Driven by Private Equity Investments: How Rich Universities Get Richer (But You Can, Too) .

APPENDIX: EXPLANATION OF CHAPTER 11 BANKRUPTCY

The text below is from the North Carolina bankruptcy law firm Stubbs Perdue:

Chapter 11 bankruptcy is a legal process that allows businesses to reorganize their debts and operations while continuing to operate. Unlike Chapter 7, which involves liquidating assets to pay off creditors, Chapter 11 aims to restructure a company’s obligations to improve financial stability and pave the way for future growth. Chapter 13, on the other hand, is typically reserved for individuals with a regular income, focusing on debt repayment plans.

Typical Chapter 11 Process

Chapter 11 process typically involves several key steps:

  • Filing the Petition: The process begins with the company filing a petition in bankruptcy court.
  • Developing a Reorganization Plan: The company works with its creditors to create a plan that outlines how it will restructure its debts and operations.
  • Negotiating with Creditors: The plan is subject to approval by the court and the creditors, who may negotiate the terms to protect their interests.

Throughout this process, the court plays a supervisory role to ensure fair treatment of all parties involved.

Ho Ho Ho – – It’s Time for the Annual Santa Claus Stock Rally

There tends to be a significant rise in broad stock indices the last two weeks of the old year and into the first two trading days of the new year. This is termed the “Santa Claus” rally. Sometimes it is focused on the last five trading days of the old and the first two days of the new.

Here is a chart showing average changes in S&P 500 prices for the month of December for 1970-2023 (blue line), and more recent data (last ten years, orange line).

Seeking Alpha

Some possible reasons for this year-end rally are:

Tax-loss harvesting: Investors may sell stocks at the end of a year to claim capital losses, to offset capital gains. They may then repurchase these stocks at the start of the new year.

Low trading volume: Larger institutional investors often go on holiday in this timeframe, leaving the market more to individual retail investors, who may be more optimistic.

Herd mentality: If most investors believe stocks will go up, then probably stocks will go up.

Santa Predicts the Future

Perhaps even more significant is the power of the Santa Claus rally to predict stock returns in the coming year. The following table lists returns for the last five trading days of the old year plus the first two days of the new year, and also the returns for the whole new year:

The Street

The table above was published in 2023, so the full year 2023 stock returns at that point were “TBD”. We now know the 2023 returns were hugely positive (approx. 23%). So, for 1999-2023, Santa came to town 19 out of 24 times for a year-end rally. Also, since 1999, the market rose 19 times during the Santa Claus rally; the following year, the S&P posted gains 15 times. Out of the 5 times the market lost ground during same period, the market fell in 3 of the following years. So the market performance in this transitional timeframe correlates well with the stock gains for the whole new year.

Will stocks soar again this holiday season? I have no idea. We are off to a shaky start, with the S&P 500 down about 1.5% in the past five days , through 12/22. This after the market hated the Fed’s more hawkish stance last week, being now likely slower to reduce interest rates than previously assumed.

As usual, nothing here should be considered advice to buy or sell any security.

Seven Reasons Why Americans Pay So Much for Health Care

Ken Alltucker at USA Today recently published a piece titled Seven reasons why Americans pay more for health care than any other nation. It starts off:

Americans spend far more on health care than anywhere else in the world but we have the lowest life expectancy among large, wealthy countries.

A lot of that can be explained by the unique aspects of our health care system. Among other things, we reward doctors more for medical procedures than for keeping people healthy, keep costs hidden from customers and spend money on tasks that have nothing to do making patients feel better.

“We spend more on administrative costs than we do on caring for heart disease and caring for cancer,” said Harvard University economist David Cutler. “It’s just an absurd amount.”

The article notes that the whole system is skewed towards high costs. It is not just profiteering insurance companies. Seven factors are listed. I will excerpt them in italics below, and close with a few of my comments.

Reason 1: Lack of price limits

U.S. hospitals have more specialists than do medical facilities in other nations. Having access to 24/7 specialty care, particularly for hospitals in major metro areas, drives up costs… Patients have more elbow room and privacy here. U.S. hospitals typically have either one or two patients per room, unlike facilities abroad that tend to have open wards with rows of beds, Chernew said. He said differences in labor markets and regulatory requirements also can pack on costs.

Of the $4.5 trillion spent on U.S. health care in 2022, hospitals collected 30% of that total health spending, according to data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Doctors rank second at 20%. Prescription drugs accounted for 9% and health insurance − both private health insurance and government programs such as Medicare and Medicaid − collect 7% in administrative costs.

Reason 2: Hospitals and doctors get paid for services, not outcomes

Doctors, hospitals and other providers are paid based on the number of tests and procedures they order, not necessarily whether patients get better.  The insurer pays the doctor, hospital or lab based on negotiated, in-network rates between the two parties.

Critics of this fee-for-service payment method says it rewards quantity over quality. Health providers who order more tests or procedures get more lucrative payments whether the patients improve or not.

Reason 3: Specialists get paid much more ‒ and want to keep it that way

Doctors who provide specialty care such as cardiologists or cancer doctors get much higher payments from Medicare and private insurers than primary care doctors.

Some see that as a system that rewards doctors who specialize in caring for patients with complex medical conditions while skimping on pay for primary care doctors who try to prevent or limit disease.

[My comment: There is a saying in management science that your system is perfectly designed for the results you are getting. In other nations with a fixed pot of money, doled out by the government, to mainly non-profit health providers, there is (in theory, at least) an incentive system that would work towards minimizing overall health expenses. In the U.S., though, we have a mainly for-profit system, that collects more moolah the more health problems we have, and the more expensive are the treatments. Most healthcare providers try to be noble-minded and work for the good of their patients, but still the overall financial incentives are what they are.  The health insurance companies are one of the few forces working against endless upward spiraling of healthcare costs. ]

Under the current system, doctors are chosen or approved by the American Medical Association to a 32-member committee which recommends values for medical services that Medicare then considers when deciding how much to pay doctors. Some have compared the idea of doctors setting their own payscale to the proverbial fox guarding the henhouse.

Reason 4: Administrative costs inflate health spending

One of the biggest sources of wasted medical spending is on administrative costsseveral experts told USA TODAY….Harvard’s Cutler estimates that up to 25% of medical spending is due to administrative costs.

Health insurers often require doctors and hospitals to get authorization before performing procedures or operations. Or they mandate “step therapy,” which makes patients try comparable lower-cost prescription drugs before coverage for a doctor-recommended drug kicks in.  These mandates trigger a flurry of communication and tasks for both health insurers and doctors.

Reason 5: Health care pricing is a mystery

Patients often have no idea how much a test or a procedure will cost before they go to a clinic or a hospital. Health care prices are hidden from the public. …An MRI can cost $300 or $3,000, depending on where you get it. A colonoscopy can run you $1,000 to $10,000.

Economists cited these examples of wide-ranging health care prices in a request that Congress pass the Health Care Price Transparency Act 2.0, which would require hospitals and health providers to disclose their prices.

Reason 6: Americans pay far more for prescription drugs than people in other wealthy nations

There are no price limits on prescription drugs, and Americans pay more for these life-saving medications than residents of other wealthy nations.

U.S prescription drug prices run more than 2.5 times those in 32 comparable countries, according to a 2023 HHS report…. Novo Nordisk charged $969 a month for Ozempic in the U.S. ‒ while the same drug costs $155 in Canada, $122 in Denmark, and $59 in Germany, according to a document submitted by Sanders.

[My comment: Yes, this disparity irks me greatly].

Reason 7: Private Equity

Wall Street investors who control private equity firms have taken over hospitals and large doctors practices, with the primary goal of making a profit. The role of these private equity investors has drawn increased scrutiny from government regulators and elected officials.

One example is the high-profile bankruptcy of Steward Health Care, which formed in 2010 when a private equity firm, acquired a financially struggling nonprofit hospital chain from the Archdiocese of Boston.

Private equity investors also have targeted specialty practices in certain states and metro regions.

Last year, the Federal Trade Commission sued U.S. Anesthesia Partners over its serial acquisition of practices in Texas, alleging these deals violated antitrust laws and inflated prices for patients. …FTC Chair Lina Khan has argued such rapid acquisitions allowed the doctors and private equity investors to raise prices for anesthesia services and collect “tens of millions of extra dollars for these executives at the expense of Texas patients and businesses.”

[ This also concerns me. That anesthesia monopoly should never have been allowed, in my opinion. The reason the PE firm paid to acquire all those individual practices was so that they could raise prices while minimizing services. Duh. That is the PE gamebook. When they do a corporate takeover, they nearly always fire employees and raise prices on products, to goose profits. This would not be a problem if the business were, say, selling pet rocks, but healthcare is different.

In many metro areas now, nearly all healthcare providers (even if they seem to retain their private practices) have become part of one or two mega conglomerates that cover the area. I feel fortunate because at least on of the mega conglomerates in my area is a high-quality non-profit, but I pity those whose only choice is between two for-profits.]

Final comments: I think another factor here is in our private enterprise system, it is so costly to become a doctor that they have to charge relatively high fees to compensate. This leads to a system where there are layers and layers of admins and nurses to shield you from actually seeing the doctor. As an example, I sliced my finger a couple of years ago, and went to an urgent care facility. There was an admin at the desk who took down my insurance info and relayed my condition to the back. Some time later, an aide took me back and weighed me and took my blood pressure. I think a nurse swung by as well. Finally, The Doctor Himself sailed in, to actually patch me up. And of course there were layers of administrative paperwork between me, the care facility, and my insurance company, to settle all the charges.

In contrast, a friend told me that when he broke his arm in the UK, he went to the local clinic, which was staffed by a doctor, and no one else. The doc set his arm, charged him some nominal fee, and sent him on his way.

There are other factors, I’m sure, such as the unhealthy lifestyle choices of many Americans. Think: obesity and opioids, among others.  I suspect that is to blame for the poorer health outcomes in this country, more than the healthcare system.

In favor of the current U.S. system, although we pay much more, I think we do get something in return. It seems that with a good health plan, the availability of procedures is better in the U.S. than in many other countries, though I am open to correction on that.

My New Favorite Mass Cookie Recipe: Sally’s Chewy Oatmeal Chocolate Chip

For decades, our family favorite holiday cookie recipe has been a hearty ginger cookie containing, among other things, wheat germ. The original recipe author claimed that these cookies “got my family through Alaskan winters”. That’s hard core.

With my family’s help, I made big batches for decades to hand out among colleagues at work. This always included my boss and boss’s boss, and their admins. (Cynics may think what they wish of my motives there.)  Also, we like to hand out small, decorated bags of cookies to all our neighbors for several houses in all directions. We like to try to build community as we can, and this is often the only time we get to exchange words with some neighbors.

However, there are two downsides to that ginger cookie. First, it is very labor-intensive. The final mixing with a stiff dough takes a lot of muscle, and forming the cookies takes an assembly line with multiple steps: with the help of a spoon, form the sticky dough into a ball, then roll the ball in sugar, then place on baking tray, then press a blanched almond (can only find these in specialty vendors these days) into the top of the ball.    Second, this ginger cookie is a bit on the dry side – – I would usually recommend consuming them with coffee or milk as I handed them out.

Two years ago, however, an esteemed family member pointed me to a radically different recipe, for an oatmeal chocolate chip cookie. That seemed kind of decadent compared to my old favorite, but worth a try. It solved the two drawbacks for the ginger cookies. Making it is easy, just scoop into the dough and plop onto the cookie sheet. (I did buy a cookie scoop for this). And there was no need to apologize for dryness. These babies are just plain delicious. So now I make large batches of these cookies to hand out to neighbors at Christmas.

Without further ado, here is a link to the recipe for Chewy Oatmeal Chocolate Chip Cookies, by Sally McKenney of Sally’s Baking Addition. You do have to follow the directions, including the step of creaming the butter (see links in recipe for what “room temperature” means) and sugar, and using old-fashioned (not instant) oatmeal.

Here are some of my tweaks to this recipe:

Make two double batches, in two separate large bowls. Chill in fridge several hours. Set aside several hours to bake them all.

Don’t bother creaming butter alone. Just add sugars to butter and stir in with wood spoon, then beaters. Add flour, using spoon and then beaters. For adding oats, chips, etc., just use spoon.

I backed out some of the chocolate chips, and added chopped walnuts: so, in each double batch I have total 3 c choc chips (e.g. 2.25 c regular chips, ¾ c mini chips), plus 1 c chopped walnuts. It’s worth getting good chocolate chips. Ghirardelli seems to be the best chocolate chip. Guittard also gets raves.

The recipe calls for big cookies (a full, large scoop, about 3 Tbsp), but those may spread too much, and I want more cookies, so I use about ¾ full large scoop.

Bake at 355 F instead of 350 F, to speed it up a bit. (My oven is wimpy, electric). Parchment paper works well to keep cookies from sticking.

Enjoy!

My Frozen Assets at BlockFi, Part 4: Full Recovery of My Funds

In March and April of this year, I moaned and groaned here in blogland, chronicling my attempts to recover my funds from an interest-bearing account at crypto firm BlockFi.

Back in 2021, interest rates had been so low for so long that that seemed to be the new normal. Yields on stable assets like money market funds were around 0.3% (essentially zero, and well below inflation), as I recall. As a yield addict, I scratched around for a way to earn higher interest, while sticking with an asset where (unlike bonds) the dollar value would stay fairly stable.

It was an era of crypto flourishing, and so I latched onto the notion of decentralized finance (DeFi) lending. I found what seemed to be a reputable, honest company called BlockFi, where I could buy stablecoin (constant dollar value) crypto assets which would sit on their platform. They would lend them out into the crypto world, and pay me something like 9 % interest. That was really, really good money back then, compared to 0.3%.

On this blog, I chronicled some of my steps in this journal. First, in signing up for BlockFi, I had to allow the intermediary company Plaid complete access to my bank account. Seriously, I had to give them my username and password, so they could log in as me, and not only be able to withdraw all my funds, but see all my banking transactions and history. That felt really violating, so I ended up setting up a small auxiliary bank account for Plaid to use and snoop to their heart’s content.

I did get up and running with BlockFi, and put in some funds and enjoyed the income, as I happily proclaimed (12/14/2021) on this blog, “ Earning Steady 9% Interest in My New Crypto Account “.

BlockFi assured me that they only loaned my assets out to “Trusted institutional counterparties” with a generous margin of collateral. What could possibly go wrong??

What went wrong is that BlockFi as a company got into some close relationship with Sam Bankman-Fried’s company, FTX.  Back in 2021-2022, twenty-something billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried (“SBF”) was the whiz kid, the visionary genius, the white knight savior of the crypto universe. In several cases, when some crypto enterprise was tottering, he would step in and invest funds to stabilize things. This reminded some of the role that J. P. Morgan had played in staving off the financial panics of 1893 and 1907. SBF was feted and lauded and quoted endlessly.

For reasons I never understood, BlockFi as a company was having a hard time turning a profit, so I think the plan was for FTX to acquire them. That process was partway along, when the great expose’ of SBF as a self-serving fraudster occurred at the end of 2022. FTX quickly declared bankruptcy, which forced BlockFi to go BK as well. SBF was eventually locked up, but so were the funds I had put into BlockFi. The amount was not enough to threaten my lifestyle, but it was enough to be annoying.

BlockFi Assets Begin to Thaw

I got emails from BlockFi every few months, assuring customers that they would do what they could to return our assets. Their bankruptcy proceedings kept things locked, but eventually they started to return some money.

 As I noted in a blog post, in April, 2024, I was able to recover about 27% of my account. At the time, there was no clear prospect of getting the rest.   Along the way, I clicked on a well-camouflaged scam email link, which gave me some heartburn but fortunately no harm came of it.

And now, hooray, they have finally returned it all, following their successful claw-back of assets from SBF’s organization(s). This vindicates my sense that the BlockFi management was/is fundamentally honest and good-willed, and was just a victim of SBF’s machinations.

Some personal takeaways from all this:

  • Keep allocations smallish to outlier investments
  • Sell out at the first serious signs of trouble
  • Triple-check before clicking on any link in an email
  • Having been forced to engage in opening crypto wallets and transferring coins, I have a better feel for the world of crypto which had seemed like a black box. It does not draw me like it does some folks, but if circumstances ever require me to deal in crypto (relocate to Honduras?), I could do it.