To say Warren Buffett is not a fan of gold would be an understatement. His basic beef is that gold does not produce much of practical value. His instincts have always been to buy businesses that generate steady and growing cash by producing goods or services that people need or want – – businesses like railroads, beverage makers, and insurance companies.
Here are some quotes on the subject from the Oracle of Omaha, where I have bolded some phrases:
“Gold … has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative. True, gold has some industrial and decorative utility, but the demand for these purposes is both limited and incapable of soaking up new production. Meanwhile, if you own one ounce of gold for an eternity, you will still own one ounce at its end” — Buffett, letter to shareholders, 2011
“With an asset like gold, for example, you know, basically gold is a way of going long on fear, and it’s been a pretty good way of going long on fear from time to time. But you really have to hope people become more afraid in the year or two years than they are now. And if they become more afraid you make money, if they become less afraid you lose money. But the gold itself doesn’t produce anything” — Buffett, CNBC’s Squawk Box, 2011
This from when the world’s 67-cubic foot total gold hoard was worth about $7 trillion, which by his reckoning was the value of all U.S. farmland plus seven times the value of petroleum giant ExxonMobil plus an extra $1 trillion:
“And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67-foot cube of gold … and the alternative to that was to have all the farmland of the country, everything, cotton, corn, soybeans, seven ExxonMobils. Just think of that. Add $1 trillion of walking around money. I, you know, maybe call me crazy but I’ll take the farmland and the ExxonMobils” – – Cited in https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/3-things-warren-buffett-has-said-about-gold
And my favorite:
“Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head“. – – From speech at Harvard, see https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/05/25/bury-gold/
One thing Buffett did NOT say is that gold is “barbarous relic”. That line is owned by John Maynard Keynes from a hundred years ago, referring to the notion of tying national money issuance to the number of bars of gold held in the national vaults:
“In truth, the gold standard is already a barbarous relic. All of us, from the Governor of the Bank of England downwards, are now primarily interested in preserving the stability of business, prices, and employment, and are not likely, when the choice is forced on us, deliberately to sacrifice these to outworn dogma, which had its value once” – Monetary Reform (1924)
Has Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Beaten Gold as an Investment?
Given all that trash talk from the legendary investor, let’s see how an investment in his flagship Berkshire Hathaway company (stock symbol BRK.B) compares to gold over various time periods. I will use the ETF GLD as a proxy for gold, and will include the S&P 500 index as a proxy for the general U.S. large cap stock market.
As always, these comparisons depend on your starting and ending points. In the 1990s and 2000s, BRK.B hugely outperformed the S&P 500, cementing Buffett’s reputation as one of the greatest investors of all time. (GLD data doesn’t go back that far). In the past twelve months, gold (up 41%) has soundly beaten SPY (up 14 %) and completely trounced BRK.A (up 9%), as of last week. A couple of one-off factors have gone into these results: Gold had an enormous surge in January-April as the world markets digested the implications of never-ending gigantic U.S. budget deficits, and the markets soured on BRK.A due to the announced upcoming retirement of Buffett himself.
Stepping back to look over the past ten years shows the old master still coming out on top. In this plot, gold is orange, S&P 500 is blue, and BRK.A is royal purple:
Over most of this time period (through 7/21/2025), BRK.A and SP500 were pretty close, and gold lagged significantly. Gold was notably left behind during the key stock surge of 2021. Even with the rise in gold and dip in BRK.A this year, Buffett’s company (up 232%) still beats gold (198%) over the past ten years. BRK.A pulled well ahead of SP500 during the 2022 correction, and never gave back that lead. In the April stock market panic this year, BRK.A actually went up as everything else dropped, as it was seen as a tariff-proof safe haven. SP500 was ahead of gold for nearly all this period, until the crash in stocks and the surge in gold in the first half of 2025 brought them to essentially a tie for the past decade.
John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard, wrote a short book in 2006 that explains his investment philosophy. I can sum it up at much less than book length: the best investment advice for almost everyone is to buy and hold a diversified, low-fee fund that tracks an index like the S&P 500.
Of course, a strategy that is simple to state may still take time to understand and effort to stick to. So the book helps to build intuition for why this strategy makes sense. I think Bogle makes his case well, though the book is getting a bit dated- the charts and examples end in 2006, and he sets up mutual funds as the big foil, when today it might be high-fee index funds or picking your own stocks.
The silver lining of any dated investing book is that we can check up on how its predictions have fared. In chapter 8, Bogle compared the performance of the 355 equity mutual funds that existed in 1970 to that of the S&P over the 1970-2006 period. He notes that 223 of the funds had gone out of business by 2006, and even most of the surviving funds underperformed the S&P. But he identifies 3 funds that outperformed the S&P significantly (over 2% per year) on a sustained basis (consistently good performance, not just high returns at the beginning when they were small): Davis New York Venture, Fidelity Contrafund, and Franklin Mutual Shares. But how have they done since the book came out?
It is a huge victory for the S&P (in blue). Franklin Mutual Shares is basically flat over the past 20 years, while Davis New York Fund actually lost money. Fidelity Contrafund returned a respectable 281% (about 7% per year), and matched the S&P as recently as 2020. But as of 2025 the S&P is the clear winner, up 411% in 20 years (over 8% per year). Score one for Bogle.
But I still have to wonder if there is a way to beat the S&P- and I think one of Bogle’s warnings is really an idea in disguise. He warns repeatedly about “performance chasing”:
But whatever returns each sector ETF may earn, the investors in those very ETFs will likely, if not certainly, earn returns that fall well behind them. There is abundant evidence that the most popular sector funds of the day are those that have recently enjoyed the most spectacular recent performance, and that such “after-the-fact” popularity is a recipe for unsuccessful investing.
The claim is that investors pile into funds that did well over the past 1-3 years, but these funds subsequently underperform. But if this is true, could you succeed by reversing the strategy, buying into the unpopular sectors that have recently underperformed? I’ve been wondering about this, though I have yet to try seriously backtesting the idea. I was surprised to see Mr. Index Fund himself support such attempts to beat the market toward the end of his book:
Building an investment portfolio can be exciting…. If you crave excitement, I would encourage you to do exactly that. Life is short. If you want to enjoy the fun, enjoy! But not with one penny more than 5 percent of your investment assets.
He goes on to say that even for the fun 5% of the portfolio he still doesn’t recommend hedge funds, commodity funds, or closet indexers. But go ahead and try buying individual stocks, or actively managed mutual funds “if they are run buy managers who own their own firms, who follow distinctive philosophies, and who invest for the long term, without benchmark hugging.”
For many people nowadays, investing in “stocks” means buying a fund like SPY or VOO which tracks the large cap S&P 500 index, or maybe QQQ or QQQM which track the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 index. These types of funds are exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which very low annual fees (around 0.2% or so). These are so-called passive funds, which mechanically buy and sell stocks such that their holdings match what is in their respective indices. No extra judgment on stock picking is required.
An alternative is to pick stocks yourself, or to buy into a fund with active management, where humans (and their algorithms) try to buy stocks which will beat the passive indices, and try to avoid losing stocks. The active versus passive debate has been going on for decades. There will always be some active funds that outperform in any given year. These successes help keep the allure of active management alive. On average, though, the performance of active funds (before fees) is generally not much different than the passive funds. Thus, with their added fees, the active funds are net losers.
However, there are always cheerful fund managers with a story on how they have a plan to kill it this year, and there are investors willing to buy those stories. Sometimes these fund managers take financial advisors out for expensive lunches, and, behold, said advisors then recommend these actively managed funds to their clients. And so, there are plenty of active funds that still exist. New ones are minted every year, even as some older ones go out of business.
A problem with benchmarking against a cap-weighted fund like SPY or QQQ is that these passive indices are actually very effective. These work as closet momentum-rewarding funds: as the share price of, say, Microsoft goes up and up (presumably because of accelerating earnings), its representation among the biggest 500 companies (by stock capitalization) goes up. Thus, the better, growing companies automatically keep making bigger contributions to the indices, while fading companies sink to lower and lower per cent weighting. That works well to relentlessly home in on the relatively few stocks that account for the gains of the entire market, and to weed down all those other firms, most of which are net losers on stock price over time. This algorithm governing the cap weighted funds is tough for active management to beat.
Having stated these challenges, I’d like to compare performance of some actively-managed funds that have shown enhanced performance in recent years. The problem is, of course, we cannot know if this outperformance will continue. But hopefully looking at performance and discussing the underlying strategies of the funds may help investors decide if they would like to participate in any of them.
Two broad categories of stock funds are growth and value. Growth looks at how fast a firm is increasing revenues, earnings, etc. Most tech stocks command high share prices because of their growth prospects, rather than current earnings (although many of the current big tech leaders generate gobs of cash). Value looks at measures such as price/earnings and price/sales and price/book value, hoping to find undervalued firms whose price does not yet reflect the underlying value. Tech funds are generally under-represented in the value category.
Here we will look at five good actively-managed ETFs, and compare total returns (with dividends reinvested) to the S&P 500 fund SPY. They all claim to incorporate both growth and value into their stock picking. These five funds are:
SPGP – This is a supposed “growth at a reasonable price” fund, which seems to weight value more than growth. In top ten holdings, there is only one tech stock, a 2.7% weighting of Nvidia. There are four petroleum companies, and diverse smattering of other types of firms.
GARP – Another “growth at a reasonable price” (note “G.A.R.P.”) fund. This tilts heavily toward growth: seven of the top ten holdings are tech, with 5.43% Nvidia.
PVAL – As indicated in the name (Putnam Focused Large Cap Value), this is a value fund, but with some growth considerations – – The top ten are: Walmart (retail), Exxon Mobil (petro), Thermo Fisher Scientific, Citigroup, Bank of America (finance), Oracle (tech), UnitedHealth Group (healthcare), Coca-Cola, NXP Semiconductors, and PulteGroup (homebuilder).
MOAT – – “VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat” – This fund seeks to replicate the performance of the Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus Index, which in turn tries to identify a diverse group of U.S. large companies with wide “moats”, that give them sustainable advantages over competitors. Four measures are used to determine a corporation’s dominance: Intangible Assets (brands, patents, proprietary technologies); Switching Costs (inconvenient for the customer to find an alternative); Network Effect (when customers use one service, they adopt additional company services); Cost Advantage.
FFLC – This fund uses “fundamental analysis” and looks for companies that can take advantage of trends in “technological advances, product innovation, economic plans, demographics, social attitudes, and other factors”. An analysis of the fund’s holdings (heavy in big tech; 6% Nvidia) shows a strong focus on growth and momentum, with a moderate value weighting.
All these funds have plausible rationales for choosing the stocks they do. A big question is always: how much of a company’s promise is already reflected in its stock price? If everyone else has already figured out that, say, Microsoft will have high sustained earnings growth, then maybe the current share price is so high that it will not go up any faster than the broad market.
Now for the charts. I will discuss 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year charts, so we can see how the fund strategies worked in different market regimes. The one-year chart covers the raging bull market of the past twelve months, especially in AI-related tech/growth stocks. The 3-year chart encompasses a lengthy bear episode that occupied most of 2022, in reaction to the raising of interest rates to tamp down inflation. The 5-year chart includes the brief but sharp pandemic panic March-April 2020, sandwiched in a huge rise in internet-related big tech stocks 2019-2021.
One-Year Chart
Over the past one year, GARP (52% return) soared way above S&P 500 (blue line, 39%), but with high volatility, consistent with its heavy growth/tech exposure. FFLC steadily pulled ahead of SP500 over the past twelve months, racking up a 47% return. PVAL and MOAT finished close to SP500, while tech-poor SPGP flat-lined in the most recent six months and so got left far behind.
Three-Year Chart (End Oct 2021-end Oct 2024)
The defining features of the past three years were a roughly 21% bear market decline in S&P 500 during Jan-Oct 2022, followed by a strong recovery, which was interrupted by a moderate slump July-Oct 2023. FFLC and PVAL performed nearly identically for the first third of this time period (through early March, 2023). They dropped much less than SP500 in 2022, and so by early March, 2023 they were some 15% ahead of SP500. PVAL’s lead over SP500 shrank a bit over the next twelve months, and then widened March-July 2024, to give PVAL (43%) a 16% advantage over SP500 (27%) at the end of three years. FFLC just kept steadily widening its lead over SP500, ending with a 58% return over this three-year time period. MOAT and SPGP also fell less than SP500 in 2022, but fell more than PVAL and FFLC, and they did not keep pace with the tech-led surge in 2023-2024. In the end, MOAT finished essentially even with SPY, and SPGP finished lower (18%). Tech-heavy GARP crashed harder than SP500 in 2022, but more than made up for it with the 2024 tech-fest, finishing well above SP500 and tied with PVAL at 43%.
I won’t show the full five-year chart, since some of the funds did not start prior to that period. But I will make a few semi-quantitative comments. The five-year time period is a little kinder to SPGP – this fund showed a fairly consistent lead over SP500 in 2021 as well as 2022, and so got rave reviews then in the investing literature. It was only in the past six months that it performed so poorly.
FFLC got off to a rocky start, falling about 10% behind SP500 in 2020-2021, although its winning ways since then gave it the overall best 5-year performance. GARP and MOAT pretty much kept pace with SP500 Oct 2019-Oct 2021, so their five-year performance vs SP500 is about the same as for three-year (GARP soundly beat SP500, MOAT roughly tied).
One more chart (below), a five-year comparison of SP500 to FFLC (overall winner among the active funds discussed above) and GARP (tech-heavy) to QQQ (passive, tech-heavy, tracks NASDAQ 100 stocks) and SSO (its stock price moves up and down 2X the daily price movement of S&P500). GARP didn’t start operation till early 2020 (marked by red arrow on chart), to its curve should be shifted up to make a fair comparison with the others; with this correction, it would end up roughly tied with FFLC, with both these funds beating SP500 by about 33% (135% return vs 92%). But even these stellar active funds were soundly beaten by QQQ and even more by the passive 2X fund SSO. Holders of SSO, however, would have suffered heart-stopping drawdowns along the way (e.g. over 50% loss in market value in early 2020).
Readers can draw their own conclusions from this flyover of results. Just like you can fool people some of the time, any active fund may beat “the market” (e.g., S&P 500) some of the time. Some active funds seem to beat the market most of the time. But it is most unlikely that any given fund will beat it all of the time. The S&P 500 algorithm is actually pretty effective. It may behoove the investor to make their own judgement as to what market regime we are in or are about to be in, and to choose active funds which are more likely to thrive in that regime.
I am motivated to include some FFLC (for overall consistent good performance) and PVAL (for a bit of crash protection) in my holdings. But I recognize that their performance could deteriorate in the future, if their investing style no longer works in some new market regime. SPGP is a cautionary example, going from rock star in 2021-2022 to awful in 2024. Even FFLC had an unfavorable first year of operation. The tech giants that dominate QQQ continue to also dominate earnings growth, so QQQ may continue to outpace SP500.
As far as SSO, I earlier wrote on strategies for 2X returns using 2X funds or call options. If you think stocks are going to keep going up, it can make sense to hold these 2X funds. Many advisors, though, recommend against just buy and hold because of the enormous possible losses in a crash; too many investors panic and sell at a low price in that situation. I hold some QLD, which is a 2X QQQ fund, but only as a minor component of my portfolio. Also, if I can overcome fear in the moment, I plan to swap out of plain vanilla stock funds and into a 2X fund like SSO after the next big dip in the market, and then swap back out of SSO after the market recovers.
Disclaimer: Nothing here should be considered advice to buy or sell any security.
I focus much of my investing energy in the “high yield” area, finding stocks that pay out highish yields (8-12%, these days). Unless the company really hits hard times and has to cut its payout, I know I will make those returns over the next twelve months. But with ordinary stocks, you cannot count on any particular returns. The price of any stock a year from now will be the earnings per share (which can be forecasted with some degree of accuracy) times the price/earnings ratio, which is largely dependent on the emotions (“animal spirits”, in the words of Keynes) of the millions of market participants. Will I find a “greater fool” to buy my Amazon stock in a year for 20% more than I paid for it??
I have never gotten really comfortable with that as an investing model, and so I have erred on the side of caution and generally held less than the recommended 60% or so of my portfolio in plain stocks. In hindsight, that was a mistake. Every $10,000 put into the plain, dumb S&P500 fund SPY twenty years ago has turned into roughly $200,000. One reason for my caution has been a steady stream of articles that always warn that stocks are overvalued; after going up so much in the past X years, surely returns will be poor for the next several years.
But I try to learn from my mistakes, and I am now forcing myself to hold more equities than I “feel” like. To support this hopefully rational behavior, I am paying more attention to articles that present bull cases for stocks. One author on the Seeking Alpha investing site who has been consistently and correctly bullish for the past two years is Lawrence Fuller. Here I will summarize his Oct 9 article with the tongue-in-cheek title Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid. (To read articles on Seeking Alpha, you may have to start a free account, where you just have to give them an email address; I use my secondary “junk” email for these sorts of applications, which tend to send a lot of junky (not malicious) notifications).
He first addressed the angst that says, “Stocks have already run up so much, they are due for a crash”, by means of this chart showing cumulative returns in preceding bull markets:
It is obvious that, compared to the average bull market, we are still in early innings with the present bull which started in Oct 2022.
Fuller also makes the case that the good news on earnings has spread recently from the so-called Magnificent Seven big tech stocks (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, etc.) to the broader market. This should serve to support further price rises in the broad indices:
The chart below, which shows a similar story, in terms of net income growth:
He concludes:
“It is also important to recognize that the valuation of the S&P 500 is far more reasonable when we exclude the exceedingly expensive Magnificent 7 and focus on the remaining 493. In fact, we don’t have the valuation problem that bears purport we have today. Hence, I advised investors to avoid the market-cap-weighted indexes and focus on equal weight or look at sectors that had been left behind during the bull market to date…Therefore, I suggest not succumbing to fear. Instead, focus on whether the weight of evidence suggests we should be in wealth accumulation mode or wealth preservation mode.”
In a follow-up article, Are You Worried About An Overvalued Market? , Fuller notes that small cap stocks (as defined by the Russel 2000 index, which is held by the IWM fund) are more reasonably valued than big tech, and so are likely to outperform over the next year.
Economic data will appear alarming due to hurricane impacts, but the economy is growing at 3% with strong corporate profit prospects and low recession risk.
Inflation is on track to fall to 1.8% by May, with real wage growth outpacing pre-pandemic trends. Future inflation is expected to remain stable at 2.1% over the next 30 years.
Market valuation is not as overvalued as feared, with potential for significant upside (up to 30% to 38%) based on corporate profit growth and falling interest rates.
Short-term market volatility is normal; long-term investors should embrace corrections for potential high returns as fundamentals remain strong.
The average 2-year return after a 10+% correction is 35%, meaning long-term investors should embrace corrections as wonderful buying opportunities. Buy with confidence in the face of any short-term market weakness, as long as you stick to your optimal personal asset allocation, based on your specific risk profile and financial needs.
This article has a number of interesting and informative sections, including on why cash flow/enterprise value is a better metric for assessing the valuation of a stock than price/earnings.
Economist Writing Every Day 