Do I really think that the things I write about here and in my papers are the most important things in the world? No. Like most academics, I tend to emphasize the issues where I think I bring a unique perspective, rather than most important issues. But if you don’t realize this, you might get the impression that I think the things I normally talk about are the most important, rather than simply the most neglected and tractable / publishable. I don’t work on the most important issues because I see no good way for me to attack them- but if you do see a way, that is where you should focus. So what are the big issues of the 2020’s?
I see two issues that stand out above the many other important events of the day:
- Artificial Intelligence: At minimum, the most important new technology in a generation; has the potential to bring about either utopia or dystopia. Do you have ideas for how to nudge it one way or another?
- Rise of China: From extreme poverty to the world’s manufacturing powerhouse in two generations. What lessons should other countries learn from this for their own economic policy? How can we head off a world war and/or Chinese hegemony?
Focusing a bit more on economics, I see two perennial issues where there could be new opportunities to solve vital old questions:
- Economic Development: We still don’t have a definitive answer to Adam Smith’s founding question of economics- why are some countries rich while other countries are poor, and how can the poor countries become rich? I think economic freedom is still an underrated answer, but even if you agree, the question remains of how to advance freedom in the face of entrenched interests who benefit from the status quo.
- Robust Prediction: How can we make economics into something resembling a real science, one where predictions that include decimal places don’t deserve to be laughed at? Can you find a way to determine how much external validity an experiment has? Or how to use machine learning to get at causality? Or at least push existing empirical research to be more replicable?
I’ve added these points to my ideas page, since all this was inspired by me talking through the ideas on the page with my students and realizing how small and narrow they all seemed. Yes, small and narrow ideas are currently easier to publish in economics, but there is more to research and life than easy publications.
Economist Writing Every Day 
I’m not sure why you or me should worry about Chinese hegemony?
Yes, we should worry about avoiding a war. But at the moment America is arguably the hegemon. I have never lived in the US, nor am I living there now, and I’m doing just fine.
If the hegemon changes, my status as living on the periphery won’t change. So why should I care who’s crowned king?
See also how Britain has a higher standard of living today than when they were still the hegemon. (Because progress kept advancing regardless.)
I agree that avoiding war would be a good idea. And I agree that solving AI alignment would also be nice.
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The US has been an unusually benevolent hegemon as historical empires go. Many exceptions of course but the big picture has been us creating a rules-based international order and encouraging prosperity abroad. I don’t have much certainty about what a Chinese world order would look like; possibly they mostly ignore what happens far beyond their borders. But I’d prefer not to roll the dice on the next hegemon returning to the typical historical ‘conquer and extract’ model.
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