This month I have run across articles noting that Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has been making mind-boggling pay offers (like $100 million/year for 3-4 years) to top AI researchers at other companies, plus the promise of huge resources and even (gasp) personal access to Zuck, himself. Reports indicate that he is succeeding in hiring around 50 brains from OpenAI (home of ChatGPT), Anthropic, Google, and Apple. Maybe this concentration of human intelligence will result in the long-craved artificial general intelligence (AGI) being realized; there seems to be some recognition that the current Large Language Models will not get us there.
There are, of course, other interpretations being put on this maneuver. Some talking heads on a Bloomberg podcast speculated that Zuckerberg was using Meta’s mighty cash flow deliberately to starve competitors of top AI talent. They also speculated that (since there is a limit to how much money you can possibly, pleasurably spend) – – if you pay some guy $100 million in a year, a rational outcome would be he would quit and spend the rest of his life hanging out at the beach. (That, of course, is what Bloomberg finance types might think, who measure worth mainly in terms of money, not in the fun of doing cutting edge R&D).
I found a thread on reddit to be insightful and amusing, and so I post chunks of it below. Here is the earnest, optimist OP:
Zuckerberg’s ‘Pay Them Nine-Figure Salaries’ Stroke of Genius for Building the Most Powerful AI in the World
Frustrated by Yann LeCun’s inability to advance Llama to where it is seriously competing with top AI models, Zuckerberg has decided to employ a strategy that makes consummate sense.
To appreciate the strategy in context, keep in mind that OpenAI expects to generate $10 billion in revenue this year, but will also spend about $28 billion, leaving it in the red by about $18 billion. My main point here is that we’re talking big numbers.
Zuckerberg has decided to bring together 50 ultra-top AI engineers by enticing them with nine-figure salaries. Whether they will be paid $100 million or $300 million per year has not been disclosed, but it seems like they will be making a lot more in salary than they did at their last gig with Google, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.
If he pays each of them $100 million in salary, that will cost him $5 billion a year. Considering OpenAI’s expenses, suddenly that doesn’t sound so unreasonable.
I’m guessing he will succeed at bringing this AI dream team together. It’s not just the allure of $100 million salaries. It’s the opportunity to build the most powerful AI with the most brilliant minds in AI. Big win for AI. Big win for open source
And here are some wry responses:
counterpoint
a. $5B is just for those 50 researchers, loootttaaa other costs to consider
b. zuck has a history of burning big money on r&d with theoretical revenue that doesnt materialize
c. brooks law: creating agi isn’t an easily divisible job – in fact, it seems reasonable to assume that the more high-level experts enter the project the slower it’ll progress given the communication overhead
…
Exactly. Also, money alone doesn’t make leadership effective. OpenAI has a relatively single focus. Meta is more diversified, which can lead to a lack of necessary vision in this one department. Passion, if present at the top, is also critical for bleeding edge advancement. Is Zuckerberg more passionate than Altman about AI? Which is more effective at infusing that passion throughout the organization?
….
and not a single AI researcher is going to tell Zuck “well, no matter how much you pay us we won’t be able to make AGI”
…
I will make the AI by one year from now if I am paid $100m
I just need total blackout so I can focus. Two years from now I will make it run on a 50w chip.
I promise
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