Within my social network the exodus from the service industry is now almost complete. Ten years ago I had no fewer than 7 good friends in the restaurant busines, now only one remains (and he is, by his own classification, 40% retired). The reasons were both myriad and similar. The physiscal toll is substantial, the hours long, and lack of weekends, the separation from non-industry people working diametrically opposed schedules. What really keeps pushing people out, however, that seems to tip the scales over and over, is the lack of health insurance consistent across most restaurants. With the expiration of the ACA subsidies driving up premiums for those without an employer pool to participate in, the calculus has shifted. Who’s leaving? Is it just the friends of economists?
No, it’s everyone over 35. It’s not really more complicated than that. They are entering the age where health insurance has a lot more marginal value, so they are leaving. Sometimes for substantial paycuts.
Between the ACA subsidies expiring and ICE enforcement targeting the keep service industry labor pools, the business that make our meals are going to look very, very different. Will they be worse? I guess I can’t say for sure…no, scratch that, I absolutely can. It’s worse. Everything is going to be worse. Younger, less experience, fewer immigrants? Yeah, that’s the formula to make everything worse.
Economist Writing Every Day 