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EconTwitter Platforms and Threads

Joy Buchanan3 Comments

There is a community called #EconTwitter. This agglomeration of not-anonymous accounts links together professional economists, academics, and independent intellectuals. Twitter.com is the home base and origin of #EconTwitter. Mike wrote about turmoil in EconTwitter in December 2022. Find me on Twitter at @aboutJoy

The #EconTwitter group has experimented with leaving Twitter to join new networks. For some people, getting away from the billionaire owner is the explicit goal. Others join the new platform to be where the people are.

Mastodon launched in 2016 but it was not until recently that #EconTwitter made a go at that.

Mastodon is also part of the Fediverse ensemble of computer servers, which use shared protocols allowing users to interact with other users on computers running compatible software packages such as PeerTube and Friendica. Mastodon is crowdfunded and does not contain ads.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mastodon_(social_network)

Fediverse? Protocols? The average Twitter user does not want to be bothered with “computer servers”. That’s part of the problem. On Mastodon I am @JoyBuchanan@econtwitter.net

When I joined, I was not confident that it would build on the initial momentum. The reason that the move to Mastodon was large and sudden is that Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham volunteered to set up econtwitter.net It’s paid for out of his research budget and he serves as the monitor. He can ban anyone who violates his speech/civility rules. So there is a moderator but not one paid by Mastodon.

I wrote about “Content Moderation Strategy” back in April 2022 when Elon at Twitter was big news.

Elon Musk buying Twitter is the big news this week. He wants to enhance free speech on the site and, according to him, make it more open and fun. Some fans are hoping that he will make the content moderation and ban policy more transparent. 

me in April 2022

Some people thought Twitter would crash – as in go offline – because of Elon. That has not happened, but users and brands have been irked by his management and personal style.

EconTwitter at Mastodon is still going. As far as I can tell, most people have reverted to Twitter for their main feed because the audience is larger and writers want engagement. The level of engagement at Mastodon probably peaked about a month after Paul started the server for economists. One reason I think it never overtook real EconTwitter is that economists like having a big audience that includes journalists and sociologists. Silo-ing on an EconTwitter-dedicated server was less fun. People say they don’t want to have to deal with weird strangers online, but revealed preference indicates otherwise.

Another notable development was the launch of Bluesky. I’m there as @joybuchanan.bsky.social

Making a good handle at the beginning is easy and there is some upside if it turns out to attract a large community. A few “Twitter famous” people will join these new apps and commit to posting just in an attempt to unseat Twitter. This sort of works in the sense that both networks are still operating, however neither ever got close to the Twitter scale.

Threads, launched this week, might be different.

Mark Zuckerberg opened up Threads for anyone with an Instagram account, which most of us already have. Millions of people joined in just two days. If you already have an Insta, then you can download the free Threads app on your phone and port over your Insta account.

I’m @_Joy_Buchanan_ on Threads. The underscores might look awkward, but there is no “early adopter” phenomenon here, unless you were an early adopter of Instagram.

Brands and celebrities are comfortable on Threads, so it will be able to make money without asking users to pay for a Blue Check. I have no problem with Elon asking Twitter users to pay. Someone who is worried about free speech should want to be able to pay for service.

The Silicon Valley phrase is: “If you’re not paying for the product, you are the product.“

That’s going to be true on Threads, since I’m not paying for the product.

Threads will not kill Twitter, but it is going to make a bigger dent than Bluesky and Mastodon did. Nothing is free and nothing is perfect. I know a lot of people are upset about Twitter. However, there are some people who got a voice through it. People stuck inside authoritarian countries had a way to send messages out to a global audience.

Here is my most bullish case for Threads: it might unite the “TikTok generation” that never joined Facebook or Twitter but had Instagram with the older people from Twitter who never joined TikTok. The Twitterers will stay if they get enough attention.

Thus, Threads might put a dent in TikTok, too. Zuckerberg is probably sophisticated enough to make a “TikTok person” feel engaged by sending them more food videos and less BLS update charts.

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Accidental Good Will

Zachary BartschLeave a comment

My wife makes this great chili recipe. She called me yesterday as I departed from work and asked me to grab some beer on the way home (it’s the secret ingredient in case you need to zhuzh up your version). So, I went to my local overpriced grocer. The options were dire. All the good 6-packs were way overpriced. The 12-packs, though a lower unit price, weren’t much better.

Luckily a ‘fine’ beer was on sale at an OK price ($17.49 for 12). Not what I wanted, but fine. I did self check-out and noticed that the price that I paid was not the sale price – by a healthy $2. A ‘fine’ beer at an ok price is one thing. But a ‘fine’ beer at a ‘great’ beer price is no bueno. After check-out, I made a b-line for the beer aisle in order to double check myself. Me making a mistake is often a good first approximation. But nuts – I was mischarged.

I took a photo of the ‘correct’ price and headed to the customer service desk.

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Unpopular Grocery Opinions

Zachary BartschLeave a comment

You needn’t stop at stop signs in parking lots.

Road signs on private land are often not legally enforceable by the police. You can ignore right-of-way and most signage in a parking lot or a parking-lot-adjacent path. I’m not saying that signs don’t serve a useful function. The stop in front of a Target or Publix is there to help coordinate drivers and pedestrians. It’s mostly a prudential matter. If it’s crowded, then those signs act coordinate us where norms might differ. But, if it’s late and no one is around, then you can safely run all of the parking lot stop signs with impunity. Be careful, however. The police can’t get you. But if you harm someone or something, then you can still be liable for neglect in a civil suit. That’s because neglect is contextual and expectations matter. If people treat parking lot signs like there are real road signs, then flaunting them can be construed as neglect.

You Can Park in Handicap Spaces.

If you’re *really* anti-social, then you should look up your local or state handicap accessible parking rules. Usually, police do have the power to ticket vehicles lacking the proper disability tags. BUT, the handicap parking space must conform to specifications. Where I live, for example, there must be an minimum sized sign that stands completely above 5 feet high in order to clearly demark the space. Therefore, if you see a handicap spot that is only noted by asphalt paint, then you’re free to park there.

Return your Shopping Cart… Or Don’t

Nothing says that you must return your shopping cart to an outdoor, covered, or indoor corral. People say that they have strong feelings about this (it’s not clear to me that they actually do). I say it’s not a fruitful exhortation. Let’s consider multiple perspectives and set aside the issue of civil liability due to neglect that I outlined above.

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EWED Highlights: Investing

James Bailey1 Comment

I noticed that finance and investing have become one of our recurring themes here, and so I recently added an investing category for our posts.

Posts from before last week weren’t tagged with it, but I’ll take the chance now to highlight some of our investing posts:

Alternative Investing Ideas:

Is Equity Crowdfunding Beating Adverse Selection?

Potent Portfolio Diversifier: Managed Futures Funds Go Up When Both Stocks and Bonds Go Down

Series 65 for Economists

Unfashionable Investing

50% Endowment Returns Driven by Private Equity Investments: How Rich Universities Get Richer (But You Can, Too)

Safer / Yield-Based Investing Ideas:

Tough Year for Investing (with one little-known, totally safe exception)

Get Easy Government-Guaranteed 4% Interest on Your Money with Treasury Bills

High Yield Investments, 1: Some Benefits of High Yield Stocks and Funds

High Yield Investing, 2: Types of Funds; Loan Funds; Preferred Stocks

Posts on Economic Conditions Affecting Financial Markets:

Work From Home Sours Financing for Office Buildings, Which Threatens Regional Banks

Bulls and Bears Spar Over Pace of Inflation Decline and Rate Cuts

A Cornucopia of Financial Data from J. P. Morgan, Relevant to Investors

Raging Inflation, Spiking Rates, Plunging Stocks, Oh, My!

QE, Stock Prices, and TINA

Crypto Posts:

Bitcoin’s Dramatic Comeback: Resurrection or Dead Cat Bounce?

The Great Crypto Market Meltdown of 2022

The NFT Market Is Mushrooming – Why??

Crypto Drama: $40 Billon Vaporized as Terra “Stablecoin” and Luna Implode; Bored Ape NFTs Break Ethereum

On Famous Investors:

Get rich or get famous? Edward Thorp vs Myron Scholes

Warren Buffett’s Secret Sauce: Investing the Insurance “Float”

Big Picture / Economics of Investing:

What kind of return do we want on our investment?

Though the Market Is a Winner, Most Stocks Are Losers

Minor Investment

Dow 1,000,000?

Avoiding Intertemporal Idiosyncratic Risk

Social Security: Not a Great/Terrible Investment

Drivers of Financial Bubbles: Addicts and Enablers

Why Short Selling Is a Good Thing for the Stock Market and Investors Large and Small

Tenure Reflections from Joy

Joy Buchanan2 Comments

Samford has voted to keep me around with promotion to Associate Professor. I am also pleased to have won a faculty Research award this year. You can see a list of my papers here. Tenure gives one an ability to plan for the future and be less focused on short-term publication success. I’m excited to keep at it with empirical research.

Five thoughts:

  1. It is a privilege to live when and where I do. Since we started this blog in August of 2020, several major events have changed the world. Through it all, I sometimes try to stay informed and offer thoughts here, and sometimes I block it out to focus on my research papers. I think about the young women in Kabul or Mariupol who started projects of their own in August of 2020. They don’t get to block it out.

https://www.wired.com/story/mariupol-ukraine-war/

2. James wrote a great inspiring tenure reflection post last year and pointed me to this quote: “I consider the “wasting of tenure” to be one of the aesthetic crimes one can commit with a wealthy life, and yet I see it all the time” –Tyler Cowen No aesthetic criminals here at EWED.

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Buying Your New Home: Process and Strategy

Zachary Bartsch1 Comment

I’m currently purchasing a new house and I want to share some insights. Baseline knowledge: Houses are unique goods on multiple margins that are imperfect substitutes. Let’s assume that both a buyer and a seller have real estate agents in the USA. The opportunity cost to the buyer is selecting another house that is not quite as desirable or finding a comparably desirable house after a wait (due to time searching and the appearance of new listings). Legally, the seller is not allowed to lie about the property details (though they can claim ignorance). The lending process makes it difficult for the buyer to lie.

Step 1: List and Bid

The seller chooses a price low enough that will permit a sale within their preferred timeframe, and high enough so that they earn a commensurate return. There is a tradeoff.

The buyer makes an offer. Before buying, I thought that the offer was, more or less, just bidding a price. That would make the problem nice and 1-dimensional. It would fit nicely into the auction theory that I learned in grad school. But that’s not the whole story. As it turns out, an offer specifies other details too. It specifies:

  1. The price.
  2. Earnest money. This is the amount that the buyers pays immediately in order to signal legitimate interest in the property. It’s often held in escrow by a 3rd party in order to improve credibility.
  3. The number of days until closing (signing the final contract).
  4. The number of days for ‘due diligence’. This is the period during which inspections must/can be done. The seller or their agent must make the house reasonably available for inspection during this period.
  5. The appraisal period. This is the length of time during which an appraisal of the property determines the value of the home insofar as a lending institution is concerned. Without a loan, this number can be zero is irrelevant.
  6. A lender’s pre-approval letter specifying the permitted size of the loan and the down payment. This is a signal of credibility that the buyer is able to pay. The buyer can request to be approved for a smaller loan in order to signal unwillingness to pay more.
  7. Any contingencies, such as whether another property must sell first, or a delay is requested. Really, this can be almost anything that the buyer wants. Some people get creative in their offers, like paying a higher price in exchange for a later closing date or rent-to-own contracts.

Given the above details, a potential buyer would like to craft the offer to meet the seller’s preferences while also acknowledging the scarcity of the buyer’s resources. As it turns out, not all resources are instantly convertible. One may be willing to move quickly but have a lower budget. Or, be willing to pay a higher price, contingent on the sale of another property.

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More Ideas Pages

James Bailey1 Comment

I’ve written here about my ideas page of economics papers I’d like to see.

After that post I heard from others who maintain similar pages. David Friedman has a small page here with research ideas, along with larger pages of short story ideas and product ideas.

HiveReview is a site where one can post or comment on both completed papers and paper ideas. The site does many things at once, but one use case is to post ideas in search of collaborators or to search for projects where someone wants a collaborator for their idea.

I learned today that Gwern Branwen maintains a large page of “Questions“, some of which could be research ideas, mostly outside of economics. He also has pages of research ideas and startup ideas. Some examples of Questions:

Given the crucial role of trust and shared interests in success stories like Xerox PARC or the Apollo Project or creative collaborations in general, why are there so few extremely successful pairs of identical twins?

Nicotine alternatives or analogues: there seem to be none, but why not?

Nicotine is one of the best stimulants on the market: legal, cheap, effective, relatively safe, with a half-life less than 6 hours. It also affects one of the most important and well-studied receptors. Why are there no attempts to develop analogues or replacements for nicotine which improve on it eg. by making it somewhat longer-lasting or less blood-pressure-raising, when there are so many variants on other stimulants like amphetamines or modafinil or caffeine?

Adam Smith in Taylor Swift

Joy Buchanan1 Comment

See my latest post for Adam Smith Works.

TAYLOR SWIFT’S ANTI-HERO AS A SMITHIAN ANTHEM

The song “Anti-Hero” by Taylor Swift was the number-one song on charts in the United States and globally when it was released in October of 2022. Based on the record-breaking and continued popularity of the song, Swift’s struggles with self-loathing resonates with us. 

 It’s me, hi, I’m the problem, it’s me
 At tea time, everybody agrees

The theme of the song is that Swift feels like a moral monster who is exposed to the watching eyes of society. She imagines proper people gossiping about her flaws at teatime. This reference to British tea culture makes a perfect segue to the moral philosophy of Adam Smith. Those who only think of Smith as an early observer of modern economies might be surprised, but regular readers of AdamSmithWorks won’t be. 

The impartial spectator is a key concept in Smith’s theory…

At the end I even quote the song “Shake it Off.”

Be Posting Always

Joy Buchanan4 Comments

James wrote about our posting philosophy in “Always Be Posting”. The regularity is the point. This strategy is not our original idea, but this specific manifestation of blogging is a kind of experiment that we are running in front of everyone. I’ll add a few comments on this practice.

  1. I blogged more than once a week at first. Although I believe in the benefits of writing, once a week is the right amount for me.
  2. Tyler recently asked Brad Delong about Substack. Delong says, “Substacking is blogging, except that Substacking is blogging where you have explicit permission to send things to people’s email inboxes, and also to have a rather large tip jar.” Tyler mentioned that Substack posts tend to be longer. Delong admits, “I thought blogging was more fun.” Delong thinks longer posts are better because they fight the trend of short posts that I earlier called Poastmodernism. I would say that if you are going to blog regularly for free like we do, it should be fun. That is also what Tyler said when I asked him if young people should blog regularly in “The New Econ Bloggers.”
  3. If you are going to blog, you might wonder when you should start. Society seems obsessed with young geniuses today. I started blogging before tenure but not when I was very young. I should not have started any earlier. Think about the research that shows your brain is still forming until you are about 25. If Leonardo DiCaprio would date you, then be careful about what you say on the internet. What I would hope for teens or undergraduates is that they would have smart safe people to bounce ideas off of. You certainly need to practice writing and questioning. Even though it nearly kills me at the end of every semester, I assign papers in my classes, because I believe that college students should be writing. I was and am lucky to have teachers and friends who I talk to one-on-one when I want to try out ideas. You should be “posting” in the most abstract sense when you are young, but a private paper journal is not a bad place to start.
  4. When the internet first started, I don’t think anyone would have guessed how much content people would create for free. People are posting so much. Despite worries that media pirating would lead to too little content creation, we have more content than ever.

Something fun about regular short posts is that you can put a stake down and then revisit it years later. Here are two of my posts that have turned out well.

  1. In 2022, I went to Disney World for the first time. Ross Douthat criticized Disney World in his book The Decadent Society. I like the book, but I thought that he clearly hadn’t been there. I wrote a whole blog about Disney being the opposite of infrastructure stagnation. Here is Ross now with his New York Times column saying “Wow, I had never actually been there, and the physical infrastructure is amazing.”
  2. In 2021, I wrote “I encourage parents to read fantasy with children. I see a lot of children’s books that promote science or STEM-readiness… Those games that try to trick 5-year-olds into “programming” are less valuable than reading and discussing fantasy stories… What your child will need to be able to do when they are 20 is read and comprehend a textbook that explains a totally new technology that no one alive today understands. Then they will need to think of creative ways to apply that technology to real world problems.” The developments in ChatGPT are making this look pretty good, even earlier than I expected.

We are a posting kind of species.

Always Be Posting

James Bailey6 Comments

The key lesson, the thing I would impart to any aspiring bloggers, content creators, or newsletter proprietors, is that the cornerstone of internet success is not intelligence or novelty or outrageousness or even speed, but regularity. There are all kinds of things you can do to develop and retain an audience — break news, loudly talk about your own independence, make your Twitter avatar a photo of a cute girl — but the single most important thing you can do is post regularly and never stop.

Granted, “work hard and keep doing the thing you’re doing” is probably above-replacement advice for any kind of entrepreneurial activity. But it’s particularly true for online content creation. As Yglesias suggests, the internet and feed-based social platforms have constructed an insatiable demand for content, so if you can produce content mechanically, without requiring expensive resources (such as time, wit, or subject-specific knowledge), you’re in an excellent position to take advantage. But most importantly, this demand is so insatiable that there is currently no real economic punishment for content overproduction. You will almost never lose money, followers, attention, or reach simply from posting too much.

That is from an excellent post by Max Read. It is fairly short and has some good examples, so I recommend reading the whole thing. Tyler Cowen made a similar point back in 2019:

There’s a certain way in which on the internet you can’t be overexposed. There’s just a steady stream of you, it feels like being overexposed compared to the standards of 1987 or whenever, but in fact it’s not and people are picking and choosing. And you end up just dominating a particular space in a particular kind of way. And I think most older people have not made that transition mentally to understanding how you should exist intellectually on the internet.

Of course, this is also part of Joy’s idea with this site and why we write every day:

It’s just time to start writing more. This is a model that I have learned from Tyler Cowen, and most writers I admire write every day whether or not they have time for it. David Perell has tweeted that writing and thinking are the same thing. Thus, if you are a thinker, writing is not a waste of time. Writing is the thing you are doing anyway in your muddled head.

Thus: Always Be Posting.