GDP growth data for the second quarter of 2026 comes out tomorrow. As I have been doing for the past several quarters, here is an update on two model forecasts (Atlanta and NY Feds), betting market implied estimates (Kalshi), and an average from a survey of economists (WSJ). Yellow shading indicates which forecast was closest to correct in each quarter (green is if two forecasts were about the same).
In the past two quarters, the WSJ survey has been the best predictor. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model used to be my favorite, but it has performed pretty poorly in the past 3 quarters. As I have discussed before, an average of the Atlanta Fed and Kalshi was better than any single predictor. I continue to include the NY Fed estimate, even though it seems to be a very terrible predictor, because some people like to talk about it.
The Atlanta Fed, Kalshi, and the WSJ survey are all showing very similar estimates for Q2. If I was a betting man, I would bet on 1.8% for the BEA advance estimate.
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