The New Social Media Influence in the 2020 Presidential Election

Joy: I’m not an expert in elections or social media (unless having a Twitter habit counts). I asked Kate Zickel who manages political online accounts professionally to write about the current election:

It’s no secret that social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter have had a tremendous influence on political elections in America since their infancy in the mid 2000’s. While the exact impression of these platforms can be difficult to measure, it’s clear that their impact in 2020 is greater by far than in previous election cycles.

Data from SocialBankers reports that “While President Donald Trump’s use of Twitter has been widely acknowledged, and certainly had a tremendous impact on the outcome of the 2016 elections, former Vice President Joe Biden has actually surpassed the President in many key engagement metrics.” This includes the nearly 30 million American voters that comprise the largest percentage of Twitter’s user base at nearly 20%.

The New York Times’ Ben Smith recently explained how media and tech companies have evolved back into their roles as information gatekeepers leading up from the 2016 election. Twitter, for one, recently began pinning notices to the top of all U.S. Twitter users’ timelines warning about misinformation on mail-in voting while Google said it’s been pushing to make its core search products including YouTube into hubs for authoritative information about electoral processes and results.

Pre-bunking is yet another new election influencing tactic used by many news and information sources to prevent the spread of false information before it starts… at least that’s the idea.

There is, however, a direct inverse relationship between broadcast ad spends and digital ad spend since the 2018 midterms. For the first time ever, spending on digital political advertising has slightly surpassed cable. Still, advertising spent on broadcast television — mostly at the local level — reigns supreme.

And while the influence of social media at the polls isn’t exactly new, the 2020 presidential election has set a new precedent in this era of information gatekeeping.

Eli Dourado on the election today

Eli believes that it is likely (not guaranteed) we will know who won the US Presidential election tonight.

Esports Projected Growth

There is a YUGE election happening tomorrow. I don’t know if there will be an apparent winner before bedtime tomorrow night. In 2016, I stayed up watching the news until (to everyone’s great surprise) Trump gave an acceptance speech at 3am.

I don’t play video games. Whether you do or not, you’ll want to keep an eye on this important cultural and financial trend. Regardless of who wins the 2020 US election, people around the world will be playing a lot of video games. The following report is the work of Samford undergraduate student Erica Eades.  

Esports is a competitive level of gaming that involves players winning money. Professional esports players are typically sponsored by companies affiliated with video games. Students are becoming more and more involved in esports. League of Legends World Championship was 2019’s biggest tournament by live viewership hours on Twitch and YouTube, with 105.5 million hours.

When the pandemic reached the U.S. the sports industry shifted their focus. Many leagues were able to quickly restart their competitions in a different format as esports, which quickly transitioned its in-person events to online-only games. For many months following the pandemic esports was the only option if you wanted to watch a live competitive event.

I had an interview with Noah Hankinson, a professional eSports gamer and consultant that has conducted extensive work with the NCAA, Learfield Sports, and multiple eSports properties. Noah shared perspectives on the state of eSports and demographics.

According to Noah, the most popular game is constantly changing. Although a game may be incredibly popular one week, it could be obsolete the next. To learn what game is most popular during a given time frame, simply observe the games famous Twitch players are using. Many Twitch streamers focus on only one game, but others will focus on what is most popular at the time so that they can maximize revenue from viewership. Noah informed me that the ‘traditional’ games such as Call of Duty, League of Legends, or Rocket League are growing. These games are the most popular and have the widest reach across all eSports demographics.

Depending on the game being played, there are different rules and formats each team (or individual) must adhere to. Popular games include football and soccer, where player roles or team game plans are more well known. Many eSports are based on individual talent, much like wrestling or track-and-field. Over the years, as eSports has become more of an emerging community, college organizations have started to help push the next generation of eSports competitors.

From a social standpoint, esports are more inclusive than other sports. Men and women are able to play on the same teams and teams are made up of individuals from various demographics and ages. Esports is not just a young demographic, eSports gamers ages in America range from 12 to 60 with the average age being 33 years old.  

Many predictions have been made about the growth of the industry. As teams of eSports members populate across the country, the unprecedented growth of the competitive gaming industry continues to rise. Newzoo is the leading provider of market intelligence covering the global games, esports, and mobile markets. The data from newzoo allows them to project the esports industry esports revenue stream worldwide based on sponsorship. In 2018, the global market esports revenue was $776.4 million. The global esports revenue will probably hit $973.9 million in 2020, and $1.194 billion in 2021. 

This projected growth has made it important to maintain positive relationships with current and future partners in the industry. With increased interest in esports there is a momentum for new partners to enter the industry and increase revenue. Using the data that projected the revenue and growth can be beneficial for many esports executives and the industry as whole. It will be interesting to follow and see how the industry continues once live sports are able to resume normally. After the “at home” year that brought so much to esports, observers agree that the industry’s upward trajectory is continuing.

EWED Recommends Gifts for 2020 Holidays

For the past two weeks, several of us have been describing books and items we enjoy. I’ll summarize all of these potential gifts for both adults and children here. We’ve got everything from what goes in a perfect cocktail to gifts under $20 for toddlers. Hopefully this helps you cross someone off your holiday shopping list.

Things for Adults

Lined pants for cold weather (Joy’s review)

The gift blog that has the most reader traffic to date is Jeremy’s blog on cocktail ice. The True Ice mold is going to transform your home bar.

Along the same theme, Doug suggests ingredients for an Old Fashioned.

More light will make you happier. For example the Day-Light Sky Lamp (Scott’s review)

Scott reviews camping tents. The Ozark Trails 9-Person Instant Cabin is fun and huge and easy to set up.

Books for Adults

Jeremy says Werner Troesken’s book The Pox of Liberty is a great book for understanding the current pandemic. Interestingly, it was published in 2016! We have been vulnerable to a disease outbreak for a long time.

Doug recommends The Sabbath. Doug made a great point in his review that people in quarantine might not be getting any rest even though their schedule might look empty. A quote from Doug’s review: “genuine rest — not diversion — seems necessary in the tensions of our present moment.”

Review of How the Scots Invented the Modern World. I’ll borrow from the book’s own tagline “How Western Europe’s Poorest Nation Created Our World”

Doug reviews The Ancient Christian Commentaries on Scripture (a set of books).

Undergraduate students review Tyler Cowen’s excellent The Complacent Class. Review #1 and #2.

for Kids

Joy suggests several different toys for kids. See the blog for a bike and a tablet game. A fail-safe mid-budget present for a 4-8 year-old is this remote control car ($25). For the even younger crowd (I suppose geared toward girls) is  Minnie Wooden Magnetic Dress-Up ($10).

Joy reviews several books for kids. Most recently, I have been reading The Voyage of the Dawn Treader with my elementary-aged son and I can’t recommend it highly enough. It’s important to read fiction together. We are having great talks about these vignettes on the sea voyage.

Gift for adults in cold weather

It can be hard to shop for adults. I received a GREAT adult Christmas present last year: fuzzy pants. You might already have pants, but do you have fuzzy lined pants?

As far as I know, Eddie Bauer is the best brand for this. https://www.eddiebauer.com/s/men-s-lined-pants?keyword=Men%27s%20LIned%20Pants will get you started. They have lined pants for men and women.

This makes a good Christmas present because, for many people, it’s cold at Christmas time. These pants are a game changer for being happy in cold weather.

Something to be aware of is that these pants are not good for hot weather. If you have a long hot season where you live, then these pants can go into storage for a bit.

Joy Recommends Toys 2020

We at EWED are making recommendations for holiday gifts. This post is about items that my kids are actually using.

I’ll be putting up links for your convenience. I have gotten lots of kid stuff from neighbors, either buying through websites or just be getting hand me downs. I love the idea of re-using kid items and clothes.

FUN remote-control car. “RC Cars Stunt Car Toy, Amicool 4WD” It doesn’t get stuck. It can flip over and go over many terrain types. It’s not large, meaning it doesn’t take up a lot of room in your house, but it delivers a lot of fun! Can be fun both indoors and outdoors. ($25)

Bikes: You have probably heard about balance bikes. We started on a Strider balance bike (no wheels, kids just kick to go forward).

I wanted to make the transition from balance bike to pedal bike and skip the training wheels stage. I was able to do that, but another item was necessary. Get a pedal bike that is SMALL. I actually got mine from a neighbor, but I found a link that looks similar. The bike in the link has training wheels, but I assume you can take them off. If the wheels of their first pedal bike are SMALL, then they can’t get hurt and the can’t go very fast. My 5-year-old thinks this is really fun. I don’t have the headaches of either him getting injured or worrying that he’ll take off and be out of sight quickly.

Great cheap toy for a toddler. My 2 year old loves the Melissa & Doug Minnie Wooden Magnetic Dress-Up. This has inspired hours of play and conversation. ($10)

Let’s be honest. The kids are getting screen time. When the pandemic hit and daycare (temporarily) closed, I decided to get much more lenient than I had been before about screen time.

Magnus Kingdom of Chess is a great tablet game ($8). My 5-year-old son plays it on an iPad mini. I had made some unsuccessful efforts to interest him in real chess before buying the game. He loves the video game, but what’s amazing is that since he’s started playing the video game, he has become much more interested in playing actual chess with me. In fact, he asks me to play him in chess now. Before I used to worry that how would he even succeed if he hadn’t mastered chess by age 5. Now, he’s actually asking me to play him in chess and I’m thinking secretly ‘I don’t have time for this. Shouldn’t you be playing outside?’. (In our case, my son got some help from parents with playing the game. He might have had a hard time doing it completely by himself.) Let me be quite clear, my son has NOT mastered chess, but his understanding of the pieces really went up because of the video game.

There are also several completely free great apps made by Khan Kids and PBS Kids.

Gen Z on “The Social Dilemma”

Undergraduate student of data analytics, Liza Thornell, writes her reaction to the documentary on social media. My earlier post on the same topic is here.

A new Netflix documentary has recently caught the public’s attention. The Social Dilemma has caused speculation to form around big tech companies and has also sparked the deletion of social media applications across the nation. The Social Dilemma explores the steps that were taken to create the powerhouse social media platforms, along with exposing the negative effects the platforms have on its users.

Social media platforms, such as Facebook, gain the majority of their revenue through advertising. Due to its privacy settings (or lack thereof) Facebook is able to obtain astronomical amounts of data about its users. The data that is collected from social media platforms entices marketers because they can reach more customers for less money. These platforms market specific products based on the data that they collect through their users. According to The Social Dilemma not only can social media market products to you, it can also mold and shape your opinion as well, changing your preferences over time. In the Social Dilemma several former Silicon Valley executives explain why this can be bad.

According to the documentary, social media is harmful due to its design and how it affects mental health. The purpose of these apps is to hold your attention captive for as long as possible. In order to do so, it is important that the app keeps providing fresh new content that is relevant to your preferences. Everything we do on our phones becomes predictive data for what we will do next. The ideal situation for social media platforms is that you will end up down the ‘rabbit hole’ of specifically tailored content because the longer you spend scrolling and clicking through social media, the more data these platforms can collect about you. According to the Social Dilemma, the rabbit hole is a dangerous place to be.

Social media in its initial design was not created to be hurtful. It was made to bring people together. The Social Dilemma states that big tech companies have strayed away from their initial creation story. Now, social media is about holding its audience captive, molding public opinion, and increasing sales through tailoring marketing. The content is distracting us from the serious ramifications that can come from spending all of our free time scrolling instead of engaging with the world around us. It makes us crave instant approval at all times, from people and the media.

The Social Dilemma does not condemn social media. This documentary supports social media, just not the way it’s currently working. The biggest take away from this documentary is that we have gotten lost in the rabbit hole and have to find our way out to preserve our privacy.

From the standpoint of a college student, I found this documentary to be eye opening. I believe that the average college student struggles with being addicted to social media platforms and our attention spans are shortening as a result. Reliance on social media directly correlates with the decline of in-person interaction and interpersonal communication skills. Companies such as Apple have released features on phones that track screen time in order to enlighten consumers on their usage. The ability to track usage is a tool for managing and limiting social media use. For college students, cutting down on social media consumption can positively impact mental health and productivity.

Election Forecast by 538

I teach a data analytics course and I asked some students to write blogs on data and current events. This blog is by Jake Fischer.

Every four years, the United States seems to turn upside down with the Presidential election. Now, the nation has turned its eyes to predictive analytics to understand the future of our country. As of October 22, the time of the writing of this post, Joe Biden stands an 87% chance of winning the critical swing state of Florida. This seems like a significant margin, but how did we come to this understanding using data? How reliable is this fivethirtyeight forecast?

For starters, the 87% chance of winning is based on a simulation run by data analysts in 40,000 different scenarios, all of which are measuring different factors from voter turnout to demographics to the economic forecast of the day. This prediction also factors in the polling averages for each candidate from 8 different polls, each of which is given a grade of reliability and weighted accordingly. Hundreds of factors come into play when predicting an election, yet confidence in many of these numbers is at an all-time low. So, in answer to question two, the outlook is anything but certain.

This doubtful outlook is because, although Biden wins 87% of the elections, this does not factor in the margin he wins by. When truly looking at the data, you see that over half of the outcomes weighed in this 87% are decided by less than 1% of votes. Unfortunately, this does not leave much more for a margin of error as is required in most data analysis. 

This very popular website does not factor in the impact that the website itself has on voters. With millions of people reading this data and seeing that Biden stands a 87% chance of winning, there is a high likelihood that voters will simply not turn up at the polls. This distinct percentage of voter turnout that may chose not to turn up at the polls because of analytics like this, would significantly impact the data set and could actually throw the results in the entire opposite direction, particularly when the decision is already being decided by such a slim margin.

Even though data analysis has turned into a booming industry, with more accurate results than ever before, there are some instances in which predictive analytics has placed significant limitations on the outcome of important decisions, such as the presidential election. I say all of this to not place doubt on analytics, nor the credibility of the FiveThirtyEight organization, but rather to remind readers of the important factor that is the human condition. At the end of the day it is important to exercise your right to vote no matter what side of the aisle you stand on, and without allowing polling data to influence your decisions. Vote!

Gen Z reads The Complacent Class, Review #2

Another one of my undergraduate students has written a review of The Complacent Class. His name is Vinny Russo and he’s going on to great things. Here’s a link to the first review published earlier by a different student.

For the simple are killed by their turning away, and the complacency of fools destroys them

Proverbs 1:32

When I read the Bible, I see God disrupting the lives of his people and moving them. People get moved as punishment, as well as for a reward or rescuing, including Adam and Eve’s expulsion from the garden and the Jew’s exodus from Egypt. Good things come from the movement of Israel and its people. The United States needs movement, too. Although I wouldn’t wish for a modern-day abusive Pharaoh to force us into some kind of exodus, I do think that Americans can learn from Tyler Cowen and his manifesto for mobility and taking risks. The future of America depends on it.

“Economists see migration as a kind of investment. You give up something in the short run, namely the home, job, friends, and conveniences, in the hope of achieving something different and better somewhere else. In the beginning, the move is not supposed to be easy, but it’s a sign of hope, faith in the future, and a belief that a new start can lead to something grander and more glorious.” – (Cowen, Page 24). After joining the military right out of high school, joining a Christian Missions agency, as well as coming to Samford University in Birmingham, Alabama for Undergraduate studies (I am from New York City), I can very much relate to this quote. Every move was difficult in its own way, but the growth in and from the process is invaluable. Should everyone enlist in the military, become a missionary or go to Samford? No. Can most Americans, after completing High school, go to school or find a job in a city other than the one they grew up in? Yes. If more 18-year-olds did this, they would be richer and their actions would boost production in the United States. If you have not done so already, take a leap of faith and pursue your God-given dream, or read Tyler Cowen’s The Complacent Class. Both can change your life. Thanks for reading!

Gen Z reads The Complacent Class

One of my undergraduate students has written a review of The Complacent Class. Her name is Hannah Florence and she’s going on to great things.

In his speech at Rice University about the United States’ intention to reach the moon, President Kennedy declared these iconic words: “We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard…the challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone.

 I am struck by how out of touch his words are with the current political environment. Is there a challenge that we are currently not unwilling to postpone? Never mind reaching new frontiers; Congress has been unable to address issues in its direct purview for decades.

The ambition and boldness of Kennedy’s speech directly contrasts with the lack of urgency that characterizes the public square and American life in general. On a societal level, the current political class has not taken the initiative to exercise creative problem-solving with substantial nationwide issues. Yet on an individual level, Americans are more risk-averse in all areas. Despite the perception of increasing American dynamism due to information technologies, Tyler Cowen details the “zeitgeist of community-enforced social stasis” in The Complacent Class (Cowen 7). 

Americans used to be inventive and imaginative. Now Americans are less mobile, less innovative, and more reluctant to sacrifice comfort and safety for the chance at a better life. Cowen discusses how the restlessness of the 1960s – as evidenced in Kennedy’s speech – converged with the trends of the proceeding decades to create the foundation for the rise of The Complacent Class (5).

Cowen’s thesis is that people are less willing to disrupt the status quo, which is making us, writ large, worse off. More Americans don’t want to move or start a new business because the uncertainty of a better future is not worth risking the comfort of their current circumstances.

This thesis takes a different angle on a claim that has often been repeated in various social commentaries: many Americans, willfully or not, are stuck in a cultural and economic malaise. In The Decadent Society, Ross Douthat argues that following the Apollo mission, Americans underwent a period of economic stagnation, demographic decline, and intellectual and cultural repetition (Douthat). In a more dated, but highly prescient argument, Robert Putnam empirically chronicles the decline in volunteerism, political participation, church attendance, and associational involvement. He poignantly illustrates the decline of communal life of many American communities—we used to join bowling leagues, and now we bowl alone (Putnam).

The common thread among these views is that something is amiss with the status quo and yet we are unwilling to challenge it. Across these different writings, there is a common cultural pivot point in the 1980s. Cowen argues that following the social and political turmoil of the 1960s, the Reagan era was a period of newfound wealth and prestige. The safety, prosperity, and stasis of the 1980s provided the means for Americans to dig in (Cowen 11). Douthat pinpoints the Challenger explosion in 1986 as the end of the era of space exploration (2). Putnam attributes a significant part of the decrease in civic involvement to the generational transition from the silent generation to the baby-boomers.

The three authors discuss a variety of different cultural phenomena – increasing income segregation, declines in political participation, institutional sclerosis to name a few – but they utilize the same vocabulary of stagnation, complacency, and resignation. Across all the texts, there is a sense that the grit, audacity, and optimism that characterized the generation that was raised during the Great Depression and served their community through WWII has been lost. If the Space Age represented the idea that tomorrow might hold something new; the ethos of our current era is the fear that it actually will.

The effect of these developments can be seen in the toxicity of our politics. During an ugly election in a strenuous year, we ultimately are the victims of our own complacency. We look to national elections to address our issues, with neither the grit nor audacity to serve our communities or change our circumstances. The high ideals espoused in decades past of service, mutual self-sacrifice, and courage seem beyond our reach.

Although comfortable (for some) in the short-run, Americans will be hindered in their abilities to meet the challenges and opportunities of an increasingly interconnected world without new ideas and people willing to spearhead them. This message is particularly relevant for current students (myself included) who are well-placed to take up this mantle but epitomize many elements of the Complacent Class. Our ambitions are tempered by our anxieties, and our resources are too often used as means of distraction rather than improvement.

In order for my generation to challenge the bulwark of economic and cultural stasis, we need to push against the guardrails we have grown up with. This won’t be an easy for a cohort that has long perfected their test scores and resumes. As I talk to other classmates about The Complacent Class, there is a general consensus that our generation won’t settle for the status quo we have inherited.

            However, the irony of reading The Complacent Class in an international pandemic is that everyone has been forced to adapt to the ‘new normal.’ The coronavirus—and not gen z or millennials– has proved to be the ultimate killer of complacency.  This means that the post-pandemic future may provide the needed margin to create a more dynamic economy and society. One that can bring those on the periphery into the fold and create opportunities for those who had been told to play it safe.

Works Cited

“John F. Kennedy Moon Speech – Rice Stadium.” Nasa.gov, er.jsc.nasa.gov/seh/ricetalk.htm. Accessed 12 Oct. 2020.

Cowen, Tyler. The complacent class: The self-defeating quest for the American dream. St. Martin’s Press, 2017.

Douthat, Ross. “The Decadent Society: How We Became the Victims of Our Own Success.” (2020).

Putnam, Robert. “Bowling alone: The collapse and revival of American community.” (1991).