The End of Boredom: How AI Companions Might Reduce Random Violence

Joy writes: I read Co-Intelligence by Ethan Mollick (thanks to Samford for the free book). Most of it is old news for those of us who follow Ethan on social media and use ChatGPT. However, something that stood out to me was his mention of a study in which humans decide to give themselves a painful shock rather than sit alone in silence for 15 minutes.

Claude comments further based on my prompt:

The End of Boredom: How AI Companions Might Reduce Random Violence

Remember that study where people would rather shock themselves than sit alone with their thoughts? Ethan Mollick references it in Co-Intelligence, and it reveals something unsettling: 67% of men and 25% of women chose electric shocks over sitting quietly for just 15 minutes.

Here’s a strange thought—what if our AI-saturated future accidentally reduces certain types of violence simply by eliminating boredom?

The Violence-Boredom Connection

“Idle hands are the devil’s workshop” exists for a reason. Research has long linked boredom to risk-taking, substance abuse, and impulsive violence—the opportunistic kind that emerges from restlessness rather than planning. Young men starting fights on street corners, vandalism on summer nights, the restless energy that sometimes turns destructive—much of this stems from the unbearable weight of having nothing to do.

Enter Infinite Engagement

We’re rapidly approaching a world where boredom might become extinct. AI companions are becoming always available, infinitely patient, endlessly novel, and perfectly tailored to individual interests. Your future AI won’t just answer questions—it will debate philosophy at 3 AM, create personalized games, generate stories with you as the protagonist, or help explore any curiosity rabbit hole.

The cognitive void that once led people to shock themselves rather than think? It might simply cease to exist.

The Unexpected Benefits

Consider the implications: Young men who might have started fights out of restlessness could instead be deeply engaged in AI-assisted music production or coding projects. The same restless energy that manifests destructively could be channeled into creative collaboration.

AI companions could help process frustration before it builds to a breaking point—imagine having an infinitely patient listener during those dangerous 2 AM spirals of rage. While not replacing human connection, AI interaction might buffer the worst effects of isolation that can lead to radicalization.

The Dark Side

This isn’t utopian. An always-engaged society raises concerns: What happens to human relationships when AI companionship is always easier? Does constant stimulation atrophy our ability to self-reflect? Might we lose the creative insights that emerge from boredom?

Crucially, this would only address impulsive, boredom-driven violence. Systemic violence, ideological extremism, and deeper social problems won’t disappear because people have engaging AI companions.

A Strange New World

For the first time in history, boredom—that uncomfortable void that has driven both creativity and destruction—might become optional. The same species that chose shocks over silence is about to get exactly what it wanted: constant, meaningful stimulation.

Whether this leads to a more peaceful society or new problems we haven’t imagined remains to be seen. The question is whether we’ll recognize what we’ve lost only after it’s gone.

The experiment is already underway—we’re all participating in it.

Joy comments at the end: The AI-written essay is willing to explore downsides of AI engagement.

The Art of Spending Money

The author of The Psychology of Money, Morgan Housel, has a new book “The Art of Spending Money” out this month. Its main point is that people tend to be happier spending money on things they value for their own sake- rather than things they buy to impress others, or piling up money as a yardstick to measure themselves against others (this is repeated with many variations).

Overall it is well-written at the level of sentences and paragraphs with well-chosen stories and quotes, but I’m not sure what it all adds up to. The main points seem obvious to me, though maybe that’s my fault for reading a book titled this when I’m already fairly happy with how I spend money. I think I err a bit on the frugal side, but I just don’t see many opportunities to turn money into happiness by spending it- I was maybe hoping for ideas on that front but I got none from the book. After reading it I don’t plan to do anything differently and don’t find myself thinking about spending differently.

Still, some highlights. The book is full of well-chosen quotes from others:

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The Little Book of Active Investing

Wiley publishes a series of short books on investing called “Little Books, Big Profits“.

I previously reviewed Vanguard founder John Bogle’s entry in this series, the Little Book of Common Sense Investing:

I can sum it up at much less than book length: the best investment advice for almost everyone is to buy and hold a diversified, low-fee fund that tracks an index like the S&P 500.

You could call Bogle’s book the Little Book of Passive Investing; but most of the rest of the series could be the Little Books of Active Investing. That is certainly the case for Joel Greenblatt’s entry, The Little Book that Beats the Market (or its 2010 update, The Little Book that Still Beats the Market).

Greenblatt offers his own twist on value investing that emphasizes just two value metrics- earnings yield (basically P/E) and return on capital (return on assets). The idea is to blend them, finding the cheapest of the high-quality companies. The specific formula is to pick stocks with a return on assets of at least 25%, then select the ~30 stocks with the lowest P/E ratio among those (excluding utilities, financials, and foreign stocks), then hold them for a year before repeating the process. He shows that this idea performed very well from 1988 to 2010.

How has it done since? He still maintains the website, https://www.magicformulainvesting.com, that gives updated stock screens to implement his formula, which is nice. But the site doesn’t offer updated performance data, and his company (Gotham Capital) offers no ETF to implement the book’s strategy for you despite offering 3 other ETFs, which suggests that Greenblatt has lost confidence in the strategy. Here are the top current top stocks according to his site (using the default minimum market cap):

Perhaps this is worthwhile as an initial screen, but I wouldn’t simply buy these stocks even if you trust Greenblatt’s book. When I started looking them up, I found the very first two stocks I checked had negative GAAP earnings over the past year, meaning Greenblatt’s formula wouldn’t be picking them if it used correct data. The site does at least have a good disclaimer:

“Magic Formula” is a term used to describe the investment strategy explained in The Little Book That Beats the Market. There is nothing “magical” about the formula, and the use of the formula does not guarantee performance or investment success.

Greenblatt’s Little Book is a quick and easy way to learn a bit about value investing, but I think Bogle’s Little Book has the better advice.

Hayek on The Volatility Pie

In the Road to Serfdom, Friedrich Hayek uses some basic quantitative logic to make an important point about employment and political economy.

Hayek starts by assuming that government jobs are stable relative to those in the private sector. This might seem obvious, but let’s just start by checking the premises. Below are the percent change in total compensation and total employment for government employees and for the private sector. From year to year, private employment and total compensation is more volatile. So, Hayek’s initial premise is correct.

From there, he proceeds to say that if any part of income or employment is guaranteed or stabilized by the government, then the result must be that the risk and volatility is borne elsewhere in the economy. He reasons that if there is a decline in total spending, then stable government pay and employment implies that the private sector must have a deeper recession than the overall economy. Looking at the above graphs, both government employment and the total compensation are much less volatile.

But can’t governments intervene in macroeconomic stabilization policies effectively? Yes! They can and do stabilize the economy, especially with monetary policy. But Hayek is referring to individual stabilizations. For any individual to be guaranteed an income, all others must necessarily experience greater income volatility. How’s that?

Consider two individuals. Person #1 has an average income of $100. In any given year, his income might be $10 – or 10% – higher or lower than average. For the moment, person #2 is not employed and has income volatility of zero. If the government provides a job with a constant pay rate to person #2, then they still have zero income volatility. But instead of earning a consistent $0, person #2 earns a consistent $50. Nice.

Of course, person #2 gets his pay from somewhere. By one means or another, it comes from person #1. Let’s be generous and assume the tax on person #1 has no resulting behavioral effect. His new average income is $50, being $10 higher or lower in any given year. But now, that $10 deviation is over a base of $50 rather than $100. Person #1’s income varies by 20% relative to his new average!

Reasoning through this, we can consider that a person has a stable portion of their income and a volatile portion. If someone takes a part of your stable portion and leaves you with all of your volatile portion, then your remaining income is now more volatile on average. I think that this point is interesting enough all by itself.

IRL, many of our taxes are not lump sum. Rather, progressive taxation causes a negative incentive for production & earnings. The downside is that we produce less. The upside is that the government takes a higher proportion of our volatile income than of our stable income (because income changes are always on the margin and those marginal dollars are taxed at a higher rate). So, the government shares the income volatility of the private sector. By continuing to pay government employees a stable salary, the government is effectively absorbing some of that year-to-year income volatility on behalf of its employees.* The government is, in a sense, providing income insurance to a subgroup.

What does this have to do with The Road to Serfdom? Hayek argues that, as the government employs an increasing proportion of the population, the remaining private sector experiences increasing income and employment volatility. Such volatility increases private risk exposure so much that people begin to fawn over and increasingly compete for the stability found in government work. He gets anthropological and argues that the economic attraction to government jobs will introduce greater competition for those jobs and subsequently greater esteem and respect for those who are able to get them. This process makes the government jobs even more attractive.

My own two cents is that there is nothing internally unstable about this process. Total real income would fall compared to the alternative. However, such a state of affairs might be externally unstable as other governments/economies compete with the increasingly socialist one.


*An important analogue is that firms behave in a similar way. An individual may receive a relatively constant salary so long as they are employed. But the result must be that the firm bears more of the net-profit volatility. So, as more people want stable private sector jobs, the profit volatility of firms would increase and result in greater [seemingly windfall] profits and losses.

Chesterton Right about the History of Patriotism

Unexpectedly, Chesterton on Patriotism from 2021 is one of my all-time top performing posts due to a slow but steady drip of Google Search hits.

In 1908, G.K. Chesterton published the following line in Orthodoxy,

This, as a fact, is how cities did grow great. Go back to the darkest roots of civilization and you will find them knotted round some sacred stone or encircling some sacred well.

By 1908, Chesterton had likely been exposed to Victorian early anthropological thinkers like Tylor and Frazer. Maybe I shouldn’t be impressed that he’d get it right, but I don’t think of Chesterton as having access to the best and latest evidence for how human civilization evolved.

I was browsing the book Sapiens (2011) this week and came across:

In the conventional picture, pioneers first built a village, and when it prospered, they set up a temple in the middle. But Göbekli Tepe suggests that the temple may have been built first, and that a village later grew up around it. (pg 102)

Today’s post is dedicated to congratulating Chesterton on making a conjecture that turns out to line up with the best we now know and archeological evidence that was only discovered in 1995.

Chesterton wrote,

The only way out of it seems to be for somebody to love Pimlico; to love it with a transcendental tie and without any earthly reason. If there arose a man who loved Pimlico, then Pimlico would rise into ivory towers and golden pinnacles… If men loved Pimlico as mothers love children, arbitrarily, because it is theirs, Pimlico in a year or two might be fairer than Florence.

Also this month I witnessed Americans celebrating the 4th of July. People here love this country “because it is theirs.”

I’ve heard a lot of panicking in the past 10 years about the fate of the nation, and I think we should always be in a partial state of paranoia. But, if love of country is needed in the recipe, we’ve still got it. (you might need an Instagram account to view Mark Zuckerberg Zuck wakeboarding in a bald eagle suit)

We’re All Magical

The widespread availability and easy user interface of artificial intelligence (AI) has put great power at everyone’s fingertips. We can do magical things.

Before the internet existed we would use books to help us better interpret the world.  Communication among humans is hard. Expressing logic and even phenomena is complex. This is why social skills matter. Among other things, they help us to communicate. The most obvious example of a communication barrier is language. I remember having a pocket-sized English-Spanish dictionary that I used to help me memorize or query Spanish words. The book helped me communicate with others and to translate ideas from one language to another.

Math books do something similar but the translation is English-Math. We can get broader and say that all textbooks are translation devices. They define field-specific terms and ideas to help a person translate among topic domains, usually with a base-language that reaches a targeted generalizability. We can get extreme and say that all books are translators, communicating the content of one person’s head to another.

But sometimes the field-to-general language translation doesn’t work because readers don’t have an adequate grasp of either language. It isn’t necessarily that readers are generally illiterate. It may be that the level of generality and degree of focus of the translation isn’t right for the reader. Anyone who has ever tried to teach anything with math has encountered this.  Students say that the book doesn’t translate clearly, and the communication fails. The book gets the reader’s numeracy or understood definitions wrong. Therefore, there is diversity among readers about how ‘good’ a textbook is.

Search engines are so useful because you can enter some keywords and find your destination, even if you don’t know the proper nouns or domain-specific terms. People used to memorize URLs and that’s becoming less common. Wikipedia is so great because if you want to learn about an idea, they usually explain it in 5 different ways. They tell the story of who created something and who they interacted with. They describe the motivation, the math, the logic, the developments, and usually include examples. Wikipedia translates domain-specific ideas to multiple general languages of different cognitive aptitudes or interests. It scatters links along the way to help users level-up their domain-specific understanding so that they can contextualize and translate the part that they care about.

Historical translation technology was largely for the audience. More recently, translation technology has empowered the transmitters.

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Research on Big Questions April 2025

I’m working on a new paper with Bart Wilson. We might have a draft to release soon.

  1. https://economistwritingeveryday.com/2023/03/25/discrepancy-in-views-about-music-pirating/  In that post, I pointed out that the estimates reported in journals for the effect of pirating on music revenues range from almost 0% to almost 100%. There is room for new empirical work. Not often is the range of the estimates that big.
  2. My coauthor Bart Wilson did an interesting podcast episode for the Curious Task in 2020.

https://thecurioustask.podbean.com/e/ep-64-bart-wilson-%e2%80%94-is-the-idea-of-property-universal/

Episode: Bart Wilson — Is The Idea of Property Universal? 

I’m providing a rough transcription of the part that stood out to me, because he identified a prime big unanswered question. This is around minute 7 of the episode.

Host: Why is [the Property Species] an interesting topic deserving of a book?

Bart Wilson: “So, I work with primatologists… and I would talk to them about what I’m working on with my laboratory experiments on property. They would say, ‘Oh yeah. Dolphins do that, too, or baboons. … scrub jays re-cache their food if another scrub jay is watching them so they are protecting themselves against theft… so property is all over the animal kingdom. And then I’m also working with my colleague in the English department. In the humanities, property is a very narrow thing, something Western European. It’s very modern. And, so, in one part of the academy property is this broadly natural phenomenon and in another part of the academy it’s very local: only some humans have it. And so, as a social scientist…”

Bart identified a gap in understanding. Property cannot be both common to all animals and rare among humans. In his book The Property Species he spans that gap by claiming (spoiler alert) that property is common to all humans and only humans. Human language is an important piece of that story. No other animal can wield complex symbolic language.

In our new paper (manuscript forthcoming) we’ll be investigating how humans use symbolic language to describe nonrivalrous digital resources.

When Genius Failed

Myron Scholes was on top of the world in 1997, having won the Nobel Prize in economics that year for his work in financial economics, work that he had applied in the real world in a wildly successful hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management. But just one year later, LTCM was saved from collapse only by a last-minute bailout that wiped out his equity (along with that of the other partners of the fund) and cast doubt on the value of his academic work.

Roger Lowenstein told the story of LTCM in his 2001 book “When Genius Failed“. I finally got around to reading this classic of the genre this year, and I’d say it is still well worth picking up. The story is well-told, and the lessons are timeless-

  • Beware hubris
  • Beware leverage
  • Bigger positions are harder to get out of (especially once everyone knows you are in trouble)
  • In a crisis, all correlations go to one
  • Past results don’t necessarily predict future performance
  • Sometimes things happen that are very different from anything that happened in your backtest window.

The book came out in 2001 but it presages the 07 financial crisis well- not about mortgage derivatives specifically, but the dangers of derivatives, leverage, using derivatives to avoid regulations restricting leverage, and over-relying on mathematical models of risk based on past behavior. If Fed had let LTCM fail, could we have avoided the next crisis? Perhaps so, as their counterparties (most major Wall Street banks) who got burned would have been more careful about the leverage and derivatives used by themselves and their counterparties, and regulators may have taken stronger stances on the same issues.

Perhaps some more recent well-contained blowups foreshadow the next big crisis in the same way, like FTX or SVB?

Some more specific highlights about LTCM:

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Adam Smith and broadening horizons

Last week I had the honor of hosting Vernon Smith at Samford University and then being with him on his second day of the tour in Tuscaloosa, AL.

To introduce Vernon Smith’s new book about Adam Smith, I articulated a point that I had taken from reading Tyler Cowen’s GOAT book. Not all undergraduates have read Adam Smith, so I explained that Adam Smith was one of the first people to have a vision of a growing economy on a global scale. Afterward, I wondered if I had stated everything entirely correctly in my bold assertion. I went to consult with the source material via https://econgoat.ai/en/chat/gpt.

Joy: Does Tyler say that Adam Smith was one of the first people to imagine economic life on a globalized scale and how great the gains from trade could be?

EconGOAT GPT-4: Indeed, Tyler suggests that Adam Smith was one of the pioneering thinkers in envisioning economic life on a global scale and highlighting the immense gains from trade. In discussing Smith’s contributions, Tyler notes how Smith saw trade as a process by which nations could exchange their surplus or “superfluities” for goods they value more. While Smith didn’t quite articulate the theory of comparative advantage—later developed by Ricardo and Torrens—he was certainly heading in the right direction with his understanding of trade. This insight pointed towards a broader, more interconnected economic worldview that has since become central to economic theory (Chapter 8).

Tyler also gives Smith credit for recognizing issues with mercantilist views of trade, which often focused on stockpiling precious metals. Instead, Smith emphasized the expansion of consumption opportunities as the real benefit of trade, emphasizing its potential to enhance global prosperity. Smith’s multifaceted intellectual approach laid the groundwork for thinking about economies beyond just national borders, making him a key figure in the development of global economic thought.

Joy: When I think of a grand global vision prior to Smith, I think about religious leaders and military conquerors. Was Adam Smith the first to think of a grand global vision that fundamentally rests on individual freedom within a tolerant framework of laws and protections from harm?

EconGOAT GPT-4: Tyler acknowledges that Adam Smith played a pivotal role in developing the idea of economic globalization and the gains from trade. However, noting Smith as the absolute first might overlook other contributors. Before Smith, there were philosophers like the Scholastics and early mercantilists who considered economic ideas on a substantial, if not global, scale. The physiocrats, for example, were very much aware of how agriculture and trade could lead to prosperity for nations.

One could argue against Smith’s primacy by pointing out how people have always been aware of trade’s benefits, even if they didn’t articulate it quite as elegantly as Smith did. There’s historical evidence of trade routes as old as human civilization itself, such as the Silk Road or the trade networks of the Phoenicians. These early systems relied on a rudimentary understanding of economies of scale and specialization, even if they weren’t formalized.

Regarding your second point about religious leaders and conquerors, Smith’s vision indeed differs markedly. While others dreamt of unification through conquest or religious means, Smith’s framework empowered individuals to pursue their self-interest within a system of natural laws. This wasn’t just a vision of economic prosperity, but a moral and social vision as well. His “invisible hand” concept implies that individuals, left to their own devices within a safe legal framework, can contribute to the common good more efficiently than any central directive. This is highlighted in Chapter 8, where Tyler discusses Smith’s broader social and philosophical contributions. Smith’s ideas paved the way for modern market economies and significantly influence contemporary thought on economic freedom and globalization.

Joy: Would it be accurate to say that most people in Smith’s time had a very narrow view of the world, indeed hardly thinking beyond the borders of their own regions?

EconGOAT GPT-4: That’s a fair assessment. During Adam Smith’s time in the 18th century, most people indeed had a much narrower view of the world than we do today. Many individuals’ perspectives were limited to their immediate surroundings—villages, towns, or regions. The vastness of the globe, with its diverse cultures, economies, and possibilities for trade, wasn’t as accessible or imaginable to the everyday person as it is now.

Smith’s work in “The Wealth of Nations” was revolutionary in part because it broadened this horizon, not just for economists and policymakers but for anyone interested in economic activity. Smith’s ideas about the division of labor, specialization, and free markets opened up the concept of international trade as a means to prosperity beyond the local economy. His ability to foresee the potential for global interconnectedness in economies was ahead of his time.

I won’t excerpt our entire conversation. I eventually asked how to broaden one’s horizons.

EconGOAT GPT-4: While traveling Europe might seem like a grand adventure ripe for expanding one’s horizons (cue the “Eat, Pray, Love” montage), Adam Smith had reservations about the educational value of the “grand tour,” as it was then known. In Smith’s view, travel often led to “frivolous dissipation” rather than genuine intellectual or moral growth. Instead, he believed that real learning happened through competitive and commercial constraints—the kind you experience when you’re not just sightseeing but actively engaging with a community (Chapter 8).

That was when the bot made a genuinely funny joke about a silly modern book.

Using Taylor Swift to teach about Adam Smith

It’s a niche thing, but Art Carden and I wrote a collection of Taylor Swift/Adam Smith essays. I’m going to use some for teaching this semester, so I wanted to post this in case it’s useful for other teachers.

In introductory economics courses, students often encounter Adam Smith as a one-dimensional figure – the patron saint of self-interest who wrote about the “invisible hand” of the market. But Smith was a far more nuanced thinker, and his insights about human nature remain relevant today. The challenge is making these complex ideas accessible to modern undergraduates.

That’s where this comes in as a teaching aid. Through three recent articles examining Swift’s very public decisions and artistic output, we can introduce students to Smith’s key ideas in a way that feels immediately relevant and engaging. From Swift’s struggles with public perception in “Anti-Hero” to the economic implications of her homemade cinnamon rolls, these pieces provide concrete, contemporary examples that illuminate Smith’s dual role as both moral philosopher and economic thinker. Many undergraduates are already familiar with Swift’s music and public persona, providing an accessible entry point to Smith’s more abstract concepts.

Here’s the recommended order to introduce our articles and a blurb on what you can learn (seriously).

Anti-Hero as a Smithian Anthem” – This article introduces Smith’s foundational concept of the impartial spectator and his sophisticated view of human nature through a contemporary example. The article demonstrates that Smith wasn’t just an economist but a moral philosopher who understood how deeply humans care about others’ perceptions of them, showing students that economics isn’t just about money.

Taylor Swift & The World’s Most Expensive Cinnamon Rolls” – This piece provides a bridge between Smith’s moral philosophy and his economic thinking, using opportunity cost analysis while simultaneously showing how rational economic actors might “inefficiently” spend time on activities that build social bonds. The article illustrates how Smith’s ideas about sympathy and social connection exist alongside, not in opposition to, his economic insights about specialization and efficiency.

Would Adam Smith Tell Taylor Swift to Attend the Super Bowl?” – This article builds on the previous readings to explore the full complexity of Smith’s thought, showing how his ideas from both The Theory of Moral Sentiments and The Wealth of Nations can be applied to analyze real-world decisions.