Midterms

Welcome Back, Divided Government

James BaileyLeave a comment

Last week I predicted:

the midterm wipeout is coming.

I predicted a ‘moderate red wave’ here in 2022. I predict a blue wave for 2026 that is bigger than the red wave of 2022, though not a ‘mega tsunami‘

That post looks good now with the exception of those last five words- it was in fact a blue ‘mega tsunami’ by Kalshi’s definition (Democrats hold 240+ House and 54+ Senate seats).

Polling from the WSJ backs up my assessment that this was mainly about the economy and prices:

This comes after a longtime WSJ editorial writer hoped for a big Republican loss, something I’ve never seen from the WSJ before. But if they speak for the markets, it makes sense- US stocks opened up 2% the day after the election.

Crypto and gold prices are also up, an odd combination. Oil prices are down, perhaps seeing an end to the Iran war as more likely. Polymarket shows the odds of a US invasion of Iran this year down 5%. John Ossoff and Ron Desantis saw their odds of becoming President in 2028 rise at the expense of JD Vance and Gavin Newsom.

What will we see change on economic policy? Congress may lower tariffs and take back some of the tariff power they have long delegated to presidents. The Federal Reserve board will feel more free to raise interest rates if they think it is warranted. Many state-level results mean data centers will get harder to build, which will hurt the ‘picks and shovels’ companies literally building them but not necessarily the frontier labs who won’t be able to spend as much on racing ahead. NVDA and Micron stock is down while Google, Meta, Anthropic and OpenAI are up.

But the fact that President Trump still has veto power will limit how many big changes we’ll see over the next two years for anything that would require a new bill. Welcome back to divided government, to gridlock, and to checks and balances.

Midterms: It’s The Economy

James Bailey1 Comment

This is my last post before the midterms Tuesday. What will they bring?

Midterm elections are usually bad for the President’s party:

I don’t think this year will be an exception to the rule. I see many indicators pointing in the same direction.

The largest US prediction market Kalshi currently gives Democrats a 91% chance to take the House and a 66% chance to take the Senate. The international Polymarket and play-money Manifold currently give slightly higher chances, 93/67 and 94/69. Forecaster Nate Silver is higher still at 95/76.

The best odds I’m seeing for Republicans among the models I have followed for years is Ray Fair giving Dems only a 60% chance to take the House (he doesn’t forecast the Senate). In Fair’s model, the economy is working in favor of Republicans; inflation is a negative for them but economic growth is a stronger positive (including the 3.4% Q3 GDP estimate just released today).

In practice though I think economic issues are working in favor of Democrats. The economy is good in many ways, like 4.2% unemployment- but most people aren’t happy about it. Consumer sentiment is at record lows. Economic growth is solid but largely driven by the AI boom, which gives people plenty to be nervous about. Inflation is only a bit high (3.4% vs a 2% target) but easy to tie to administration policies like tariffs, war, and pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates. Ad spending indicates that politicians on both sides think tariffs have gone from a minor issue that voters have mixed feelings about to a major issue that voters don’t like:

Gas prices have long been especially salient, and are currently high because of the Iran war. I said here in March:

if the US administration wants to avoid a midterm wipeout driven by high gas prices, I see only 3 options:

  1. Get lucky and see the Iranian regime fall quickly
  2. Negotiate an end to the war quickly (which might itself be unpopular if they can’t get a good deal) or just declare victory and go home (but its not clear whether Iran would re-open the strait now just because the US stopped bombing)
  3. Restrict Exports

But they took none of those three options, and now it seems the midterm wipeout is coming.

I predicted a ‘moderate red wave’ here in 2022. I predict a blue wave for 2026 that is bigger than the red wave of 2022, though not a ‘mega tsunami‘. The main things Republicans have going for them are the Senate map (Dems need to win in multiple 2024 red states to win) and the possibility that angry anti-incumbent voters will take down some Dems too.

Forecasting An Eventful 2026

James Bailey1 Comment

May you live in interesting times – apocryphal Chinese curse

In early 2025 I shared forecasts about the economy that turned out to be pretty good. This year, economic forecasts center around a boringly decent year (2.6% GDP growth, inflation below 3%, unemployment stays below 5%, no recession), though with high variance. But forecasts about politics and war foretell a turbulent year.

In the US, midterm elections have a 78% chance to flip control of the House and 35% chance to flip the Senate despite a tough map for Democrats. A midterm wave for the out-of-power party is typical in the US, given that the party in power always seems to over-play their hand and voters quickly get sick them. More surprising is that forecasters give a 44% chance that Donald Trump leaves office before his term is up, and a 16% chance that he leaves office this year. Markets give a 20% chance that he will be removed from office through the impeachment process, so the rest of the 44% would be from health issues or voluntary resignation.

Forecasters at Kalshi predict a greater than even chance that 4 notable world leaders leave office this year:

I find this especially notable because Viktor Orban is the only one who would be removed through regularly scheduled elections. In the UK, Keir Starmer was just elected Prime Minister in 2024 and doesn’t have to face reelection until 2029; but he is so unpopular that his own Labor Party is likely to kick him out of office if local elections in May go as badly as polls indicate. If so, he would join Boris Johnson and Liz Truss as the third British PM in four years to leave office without directly losing an election. The leaders of Cuba and Iran don’t face real elections and would presumably be pushed out by a popular uprising or US military action.

Some other important world leaders will probably stay in office this year, but forecasters still think there is a significant chance they leave: Israel’s Netanyahu (49%), Ukraine’s Zelenskyy (32%), and Russia’s Putin (14%). For the latter two, this belief could be tied to the surprisingly high odds given to a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war this year (45%). Orban leaving office could be tied into this, as Hungary has often vetoed EU support for Ukraine.

Myself, I find most of these market odds to be high, and I’m tempted to make the “nothing ever happens” trade and bet that everyone stays in office. But even if all these markets are 10pp high, it still implies quite an eventful year ahead. Prepare accordingly.