Retiring for $100 per Month

Everybody follows a different path. Sometimes that path includes a late start on saving for retirement. Say that you have $0 in your retirement account right now. Is it too late? What can you get as a result of contributing $100 per month? Maybe more than you think.

Let’s start with an annuity equation that tells us our balance at retirement with some assumptions baked in. Let’s assume that we have zero dollars saved and contribute $100 per month. What rate of return do we earn? The S&P earns an average of 10% per year, which may not keep happening. We can conservatively assume 7.5%, but there are other concerns. Taxes and inflation will both eat away at that. Let’s subtract 2.5% for inflation with the Fisher approximation, leaving a real rate of return of 5%. We’ll chop off 20% due to taxes*. Below is the annuity equation that tells us the balance at retirement, depending on how many years from now you retire.

Assuming that you retire at 65 years of age, the graph below describes your balance at retirement depending on the age at which you started saving $100 per month. Of course, it’s not the balance that most people are worried about. Rather, we care about the implied monthly retirement check. The graph describes that on the right axis too, assuming that constant real payments will be made forever as perpetuity payments. We can see that getting started early matters a lot. But starting at age 40 still gets you real monthly retirement payments that are just shy of $200. That’s not too shabby.

Of course, nobody receives all of the perpetuity payments.

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The End of Easy Student Loans

The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee is proposing to cut off student loans for programs whose graduates earn less than the median high school graduate. The House proposed a risk-sharing model where colleges would partly pay back the federal government when their students fail to pay back loans themselves. Both the House and Senate propose to cap how much students can borrow for graduate loans. Both would reduce federal spending on higher ed by about $30-$35 billion per year, cutting the size of the $700 billion higher ed sector by 4-5%. I expected that something like this would happen eventually, especially after the student loan forgiveness proposals of 2022:

While we aren’t getting real reform now, I do think forgiveness makes it more likely that we’ll see reform in the next few years. What could that look like?

The Department of Education should raise its standards and stop offering loans to programs with high default rates or bad student outcomes. This should include not just fly-by-night colleges, but sketchy masters degree programs at prestigious schools.

Colleges should also share responsibility when they consistently saddle students with debt but don’t actually improve students’ prospects enough to be able to pay it back. Economists have put a lot of thought into how to do this in a manner that doesn’t penalize colleges simply for trying to teach less-prepared students.

I’d bet that some reform along these lines happens in the 2020’s, just like the bank bailouts of 2008 led to the Dodd-Frank reform of 2010 to try to prevent future bailouts. The big question is, will this be a pragmatic bipartisan reform to curb the worst offenders, or a Republican effort to substantially reduce the amount of money flowing to a higher ed sector they increasingly dislike?

Of course, there is a lot riding on the details. How exactly do you calculate the income of graduates of a program compared to high school grads? The Senate proposal explains their approach starting on page 58. They want to compare the median income of working students 4 years after leaving their program (whether they graduated or dropped out, but exempting those in grad school) to the median income of those with only a high school diploma who are age 25-34, working, and not in school.

Nationally I calculate that this would make for a floor of $31,000. That is, the median student who is 4 years out from your program and is working should be earning at least $31k. In practice the bill would implement a different number for each state. This seems like a low bar in general, though you could certainly quibble with it. For instance, those 4 years out from a program may be closer to age 25 than age 34, but income typically rises with age during those years. If you compare them to 26 year old high school grads, the national bar would be just $28k.

What sorts of programs have graduates making less than $31k per year?

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The Growth in Wealth is Not Primarily Driven by Rising Home Prices

As I have discussed in many previous blog posts, young people today have a lot more wealth than past generations at the same point in their life. But we also know that housing prices have increased dramatically in recent years, and that for most families their home is their largest source of wealth.

Does this imply that the increase in wealth young Americans have seen is primarily driven by increased housing prices? If so, this would paint a less optimistic picture of the wealth of young people today, since the value of your home that you usually can’t easily convert into other consumption.

If we look at the past 5 years (2019Q4 to 2024Q4), the total wealth US households under the age of 40 increased by $5 trillion, in nominal terms. That’s not adjusted for inflation, but we don’t need to do so because we can look at how much each asset class increased in nominal terms as well. The total value of assets for households under age 40 increased by $5.86 trillion.

Here’s how the various classes of assets have increased since 2019Q4:

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The Comeback of Gold as Money

According to Merriam-Webster, “money” is: “something generally accepted as a medium of exchange, a measure of value, or a means of payment.”  Money, in its various forms, also serves as a store of value.  Gold has maintained the store of value function all though the past centuries, including our own times; as an investment, gold has done well in the past couple of decades. I plan to write more later on the investment aspect, but here I focus on the use of physical gold as a means of payment or exchange, or as backing a means of exchange.

Gold, typically in the form of standardized coins, served means of exchange function for thousands of years. Starting in the Renaissance, however, banks started issuing paper certificates which were exchangeable for gold. For daily transactions, the public found it more convenient to handle these bank notes than the gold pieces themselves, and so these notes were used instead of gold as money.     

In the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, leading paper currencies like the British pound and the U.S. dollar were theoretically backed by gold; one could turn in a dollar and convert it to the precious metal. Most countries dropped the convertibility to gold during the Great Depression of the 1930’s, so their currencies became entirely “fiat” money, not tied to any physical commodity. For the U.S. dollar, there was limited convertibility to gold after World War II as part of the Bretton Woods system of international currencies, but even that convertibility ended in 1971. In fact, it was illegal for U.S. citizens to own much in the way of physical gold from FDR’s (infamous?) executive order in 1933 until Gerald Ford’s repeal of that order in 1977.

So gold has been essentially extinct as active money for nearly a hundred years. The elite technocrats who manage national financial affairs have been only too happy to dance on its grave. Keynes famously denounced the gold standard as a “barbarous relic”, standing in the way of purposeful management of national money matters.

However, gold seems to be making something of a comeback, on several fronts. Most notably, several U.S. states have promoted the use of gold in transactions. Deep-red Utah has led the way.  In 2011, Utah passed the Legal Tender Act, recognizing gold and silver coins issued by the federal government as legal tender within the state. This legislation allows individuals to transact in gold and silver coins without paying state capital gains tax.  The Utah House and Senate passed bills in 2025 to authorize the state treasurer to establish a precious metals-backed electronic payment platform, which would enable state vendors to opt for payments in physical gold and silver. The Utah governor vetoed this bill, though, claiming it was “operationally impractical.” 

Meanwhile, in Texas:

The new legislation, House Bill 1056, aims to give Texans the ability, likely through a mobile app or debit card system, to use gold and silver they hold in the state’s bullion depository to purchase groceries or other standard items.

The bill would also recognize gold and silver as legal tender in Texas, with the caveat that the state’s recognition must also align with currency laws laid out in the U.S. Constitution.

“In short, this bill makes gold and silver functional money in Texas,” Rep. Mark Dorazio (R-San Antonio), the main driving force behind the effort, said during one 2024 presentation. “It has to be functional, it has to be practical and it has to be usable.”

Arkansas and Florida have also passed laws allowing the use of gold and silver as legal tender. A potential problem is that under current IRS law, gold and silver are generally classified as collectibles and subject to potential capital gains taxes when transactions occur. Texas legislator Dorazio has argued that liability would go away if the metals are classified as functional money, although he’s also acknowledged the tax issue “might end up being decided by the courts.”

But as Europeans found back in the day, carrying around actual clinking gold coins for purchasing and making change is much more of a hassle than paper transactions. And so, various convenient payment or exchange methods, backed by physical gold, have recently arisen.

Since it is relatively easy and lucrative to spawn a new cryptocurrency (which is why there are thousands of them), it is not surprising that there are now several coins supposedly backed by bullion. These include include Paxos Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUT). The gold of Paxos is stored in the worldwide vaults of Brinks, and is regularly audited by a credible third party. Tether gold supposedly resides somewhere in Switzerland. The firm itself is incorporated in the British Virgin Islands. Tether in general does not conduct regular audits; its official statements dance around that fact. These crypto coins, like bullion itself or various funds like GLD that hold gold, are in practice probably mainly an investment vehicle (store of value), rather than an active medium of exchange.

However, getting down to the consumer level of payment convenience, we now have a gold-backed credit card (Glint) and debit card (VeraCash Mastercard). Both of these hold their gold in Swiss vaults. The funds you place with these companies have gold allocated to them, so these are a (seemingly cost-effective) means to own gold. If you get nervous, you can actually (subject to various rules) redeem your funds for actual shiny yellow metal.

United States Vs Cruikshank (1876); ICE vs Los Angeles (ongoing)

Cruikshank played a crucial role in terminating Reconstruction and launching the one-party, segregationist regime of “Jim Crow” that prevailed in the South until the 1960s. The circuit court opinion of Justice Joseph Bradley unleashed the second and decisive phase of Reconstruction-era terrorism…” – Pope, James Gray. “Snubbed Landmark: Why United States v. Cruikshank (1876) Belongs at the Heart of the American Constitutional Canon.” Harv. CR-CLL Rev. 49 (2014): 385.

The Civil War was over, but the seceding states remained in open conflict with the federal government. Southern states, particulary those with majority Black populations, were desperate to terminate institutional reconstruction and purge the federal agents tasked with ensuring Black voting rights. The levers of state government were still in White hands, but that control was becoming tenuous. It is not wholly outlandish to suggest that Jim Crow as we know it may never have come to be if the US Supreme Court had not handed down a now infamous decision that effectively left Black men and women to fend for themselves. Freed from slavery only 13 years earlier, they now had to contend with state and local governments intent on maintaining the status quo of White supremacy in every way possible. It would be nearly a hundred years before the Voting Rights Act of 1965 would begin to restore the franchise to Black individuals.

California is in full conflict with federal government as we speak. Federal agents under the moniker of ICE are attempting to detain and subsequently deport individuals they deem to be of questionable legal residence. There have been multiple examples of individuals with fully legal claims to residence in the form of green cards, student visas, or full blown birthright citizenship who have been taken into custody by ICE and CBP agents (masked, armed, and in full military fatigues). Absent familial notification or any form of due process, there was always the question of whether a state authority would ever treat these takings of individuals as extralegal kidnappings.

Am I using inflammatory language? I’m not sure that I am. ICE and CBP officials have make strong declarations that they believe themselves to be unbeholden to court decisions, due process, or the Constitution. State and local law enforcement in California have made it clear that they will not aid ICE in any way shape or form save preventing violence in the streets as protesters have arrived in sufficient numbers that ICE agents were effectively herded into narrow spaces and prevented from exiting with the individuals they had detained.

Just in case it is not patently obvious how I feel on the matter, the protesters are on the right side of history. The federal government is overreaching in a more gratuitous and unconstitutional manner than at any moment in the previous 40 years. This is, in terms of our federalist structure, the inverse of Jim Crow and Cruikshank. State governments are in position to defend the liberties and rights of their residents against the extralegal encroachment of federal agents. If anything, I find myself grateful that such a standoff is occurring in California, a state with the scale and resources to stand against the federal government. I know the Trump administration is threatening to “cut off” California from federal money, but that’s a strange tactic. California net loses between $71 and 83 billion per year in federal spending minus taxes paid by residents. California is the 4th largest economy in the world. California is a mess, their housing market is atrocious, they manage their forests and wildfire prevention quite poorly, but it is nonetheless the single most economically important state in the US by a cavernous margin. California can say “no” to the federal government. They may find themselves with national guard troops on their streets. They can ask then ask them to be removed. They can ask ICE and CBP to leave.

This is a significant test of our federalist republic. Cruikshank served as the political fulcrum of its time by denying the federal government’s obligation to intervene and in doing so handed the power to deny basic constitutional rights to state and local governments, and the country has in many ways never wholly recovered. As we speak the federal government is taking action on behalf of the current presidential administration to deny basic constitutional rights. How a state’s ability to protect those rights against the federal government on behalf of its residents plays out may be the political fulcrum of our next 50 years.

Papers about Economists Using LLMs

  1. The most recent (published in 2025) is this piece about doing data analytics that would have been too difficult or costly before. Link and title: Deep Learning for Economists

Considering how much of frontier economics revolves around getting new data, this could be important. On the other hand, people have been doing computer-aided data mining for a while. So it’s more of a progression than a revolution, in my expectation.

2. Using LLMs to actually generate original data and/or test hypotheses like experimenters: Large language models as economic agents: what can we learn from homo silicus? and Automated Social Science: Language Models as Scientist and Subjects

3. Generative AI for Economic Research: Use Cases and Implications for Economists

Korinek has a new supplemental update as current as December 2024: LLMs Learn to Collaborate and Reason: December 2024 Update to “Generative AI for Economic Research: Use Cases and Implications for Economists,” Published in the Journal of Economic Literature 61 (4)

4. For being comprehensive and early: How to Learn and Teach Economics with Large Language Models, Including GPT

5. For giving people proof of a phenomenon that many people had noticed and wanted to discuss: ChatGPT Hallucinates Non-existent Citations: Evidence from Economics

Alert: We will soon have an update for current web-enabled models! It would seem that hallucination rates are going down but the problem is not going away.

6. This was published back in 2023. “ChatGPT ranked in the 91st percentile for Microeconomics and the 99th percentile for Macroeconomics when compared to students who take the TUCE exam at the end of their principles course.” (note the “compared to”): ChatGPT has Aced the Test of Understanding in College Economics: Now What?

References          

Buchanan, J., Hill, S., & Shapoval, O. (2023). ChatGPT Hallucinates Non-existent Citations: Evidence from Economics. The American Economist69(1), 80-87. https://doi.org/10.1177/05694345231218454 (Original work published 2024)

Cowen, Tyler and Tabarrok, Alexander T., How to Learn and Teach Economics with Large Language Models, Including GPT (March 17, 2023). GMU Working Paper in Economics No. 23-18, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4391863 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4391863

Dell, M. (2025). Deep Learning for Economists. Journal of Economic Literature, 63(1), 5–58. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20241733

Geerling, W., Mateer, G. D., Wooten, J., & Damodaran, N. (2023). ChatGPT has Aced the Test of Understanding in College Economics: Now What? The American Economist68(2), 233-245. https://doi.org/10.1177/05694345231169654 (Original work published 2023)

Horton, J. J. (2023). Large Language Models as Simulated Economic Agents: What Can We Learn from Homo Silicus? arXiv Preprint arXiv:2301.07543.

Korinek, A. (2023). Generative AI for Economic Research: Use Cases and Implications for Economists. Journal of Economic Literature, 61(4), 1281–1317. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20231736

Manning, B. S., Zhu, K., & Horton, J. J. (2024). Automated Social Science: Language Models as Scientist and Subjects (Working Paper No. 32381). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w32381

Per Capita Consumption: 1990 Vs 2024

This is an update to a previous post that I did on per-capita real consumption in 1990 vs 2021. As of 2021, we still weren’t sure after the pandemic what was transitory vs structural, and it was unclear whether incomes would keep up with inflation. We now have three more years of data through 2024. News flash: We’re even richer.

I like to use the BEA real quantity indices. Those track what is actually consumed in volumes rather than by deflating total spending by price indices. Divided by population, we can calculate the real quantities of goods and services that people actually consumed per capita.

Even after the pandemic policies have settled down, we are still SO MUCH RICHER – and even richer than we were with all of the pandemic-related stimulus. The worst consumption category since the pandemic has been food and beverage for off-premise consumption, and that is *up* 4.6% since 2020, increasing 31% since 1990. So, while I understand that people can’t enjoy the the low prices of yesteryear, we are still better off in that category than pre-pandemic. In the other categories, everything is awesome.

Since 1990, our consumption of communication services has risen 332%, our houses are 254% better furnished, and we have 118% greater quality-adjusted clothing consumption. All of this is already adjusted for inflation and is per-capita. Since the pandemic, these numbers are still up by 20.4%, 9.8%, and 31.1% respectively. People didn’t like the post-pandemic inflation. I get that. But these improvements in average consumption are mind boggling.

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The Average Teaching Load of US Professors

“One of the closest guarded secrets in American higher education is the average teaching loads of faculty.” -Richard Vedder

I saw this quote in a recent piece arguing that US professors should teach more. I thought it sounded extreme, but as I look into it, it is surprisingly difficult to find data on this compared to other things like salaries:

Since 1996, for instance, the University of Delaware has administered the annual National Study of Instructional Costs and Productivity, surveying faculty and teaching assistants about course loads and enrollment. The data, though, are “only available to four-year, non-profit institutions of higher education.”[7] This secrecy, needless to say, is not the norm for surveys collected by publicly supported institutions. Tellingly, this study is being discontinued because the number of participating institutions “has slowly declined to unsustainable levels.”[8] *

There are some decent older studies that are public, like this 2005 survey of top liberal arts colleges showing that almost all have teaching loads between 4 and 6 courses per year. But in terms of recent data that is publicly available, the best I’ve found is the Faculty Survey of Student Engagement. It still isn’t great, since their 2024 survey only covers 54 of the 2000+ bachelor’s degree granting colleges in the US, and their tables show that these 54 aren’t especially representative. They make nice graphics though:

The graphics show exact percentages if you hover over them on the original Tableau site. Doing this shows that the median professor teaches 4 undergraduate courses per year. Knowing the full distribution would require the underlying data they don’t share, but from these graphics we can at least compute a rough average (rounding 4+ graduate courses to 4 and 9+ undergraduate courses to 9).

This shows that the average professor teaches 4.43 undergraduate courses and 0.75 graduate courses, for a total of 5.18 courses per academic year. If I restrict the data to full-time tenured or tenure-track professors, they teach an average of 4.72 undergraduate courses and 0.91 graduate courses, for a total of 5.63 courses per academic year.

Overall these loads are higher than I expected, especially since the survey sample is skewed towards research schools. But its still lower than the standard 3-3 load at my own institution, and low enough that it makes for a great job, especially compared to teaching K-12.

Overall though I don’t know why we need to rely on one-off surveys to get data on teaching loads, it seems like data the US Department of Education should collect from all accredited schools and share publicly.

*The Delaware Cost study is not just discontinuing new surveys, they plan to pull down existing data by December 15th 2025. Only schools that participate in their survey get access, so I can’t get the data, but perhaps some of you can.

Change in Homicide Rates from Pre-Pandemic in Large US Cities

We all know that homicides spiked in the US in 2020 and we all (hopefully) know that homicides have been falling across most of the country dramatically since the end of 2021. But have homicides started to get back to, or even below, pre-pandemic levels? Or is it merely reversing the 2020 increases?

The answer depends on the city and the pre-pandemic baseline! The chart below shows the 10 largest cities (with Fort Worth instead of Jacksonville, because the Real-Time Crime Index doesn’t include the latter) in the US, using a base of either January 2018 (the first month in the RTCI) or December 2019 (just before the pandemic, and murders had fallen nationally between these two dates):

The murder data comes from the Real-Time Crime Index, and it is a 12-month total so we shouldn’t have to worry about seasonality even though the months are different. I use Census annual city population estimates to calculate the rates (and estimate 2025 based on the growth from 2023-24).

As you can see, depending on the base timeframe used, about half of the cities saw declines, a few were roughly flat, and some definitely saw increases. New York, Houston, and Fort Worth are definitely still elevated. Los Angeles, Philly, Phoenix, and San Diego are definitely down. The others are either close to even or mixed depending on your baseline.

Keep in mind these data are only through March 2025. As both Billy Binion at Reason and Jeff Asher have both recently emphasized, if we use the most recent data for many cities, it’s entirely possible that 2025 will end up having some of the lowest homicide rates ever recorded for many US cities. The declines in early 2025 have definitely been big, but mostly they are just a continuation of the post-2021 decline.

Again, for clarification, all of these cities are down from their 2020-21 peaks: using September 2021 as the base (when the national murder rate roughly peaked), these 10 cities are down between 31% and 58%. Big improvements!

“Final Notice” Traffic Ticket Smishing Scam

Yesterday I got a scary-sounding text message, claiming that I have an outstanding traffic ticket in a certain state, and threatening me with the following if I did not pay within two days:

We will take the following actions:

1. Report to the DMV Breach Database

2. Suspend your vehicle registration starting June 2

3. Suspension of driving privileges for 30 days…

4. You may be sued and your credit score will suffer

Please pay immediately before execution to avoid license suspension and further legal disputes.

Oh, my!

A link (which I did NOT click on) was provided for “payment”.

I also got an almost (not quite) identical text a few days earlier. I was almost sure these were scams, but it was comforting to confirm that by going to the web and reading that, yes, these sorts of texts are the flavor of the month in remote rip-offs; as a rule, states do not send out threatening texts with payment links in them.

These texts are examples of “smishing”, which is phishing (to collect identity or bank/credit card information) via SMS text messaging. It must be a lucrative practice. According to spam blocker Robokiller, Americans received 19.2 billion spam robo texts in May 2025. That’s nearly 63 spam texts for every person in the U.S.

Beside these traffic ticket scams, I often get texts asking me to click to track delivery of some package, or to prevent the misuse of my credit card, etc. I have been spared text messages from the Nigerian prince who needs my help to claim his rightful inheritance; I did get an email from him some years back.

The FTC keeps a database called Sentinel on fraud complaints made to the FTC and to law enforcement agencies. People reported losing a total of $12 billion to fraud in 2024, an increase of $2 billion over the previous year. That is a LOT of money (and a commentary on how wealthy Americans are, if that much can get skimmed off with little net impact on society). The biggest single category for dollar loss was investment; the number of victims was smaller than for other categories, but the loss per victim ($9,200) was quite high. Other areas with high median losses per capita were Business and Job Opportunities ($2,250) and Mortgage Foreclosure Relief and Debt Management ($1,500).

Imposter scams like the texts I have gotten (sender pretending to be from state DMV, post office, bank, credit card company, etc.) were by far the largest category by number reported (845,806 in 2024). Of those imposter reports, 22% involved actual losses ($800 median loss), totaling a hefty $2,952 million. That is a juicy enough haul to keep those robo frauds coming.

How to not get scammed: Be suspicious of every email or text, especially ones that prey on emotions like fear or greed or curiosity and try to engage you to payments or for prying information out of you. If it purports to come from some known entity like Bank of America or your state DMV, contact said entity directly to check it out. If you don’t click on anything (or reply in any way to the text, like responding with Y or N), it can’t hurt you.

I’m not sure how much they can do, considering the bad guys tend to hijack legit phone numbers for their dirty work, but you can mark these texts as spam to help your phone carrier improve their spam detection algorithm. Also, reporting scam texts to the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and/or the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center can help build their data set, and perhaps lead to law enforcement actions.

Later add: According to EZPass, here is how to report text scams:

You can report smishing messages to your cell carrier by following this FCC guidance.  This service is provided by most cell carriers.

  1. Hold down the spam TXT/SMS message with your finger
  2. Select the “Forward” option
  3. Enter 7726 as the recipient and press “Send”

Additionally, to report the message to the FBI, visit the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center (ic3.gov) and select ‘File a Complaint’ to do so.  When completing the complaint, include the phone number where the smishing text originated, and the website link listed within the text.